By Olha Chepil and AFP | 2024-05-09

KYIV -- Russian President Vladimir Putin used his address at the annual Victory Day parade in Moscow to rally patriotism more than two years after his troops invaded Ukraine.

The May 9 parade marks the Soviet Union's defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II and has become one of Russia's most important public holidays.

But an event much favored by Putin, the Immortal Regiment -- where marchers carry photographs of their relatives who served in the Soviet military during World War II -- was cancelled for the second year in a row.

Russian state media announced the cancellation on April 18, allegedly "for security reasons."

The Kremlin fears that participants will turn out with photographs of Russian soldiers who died invading Ukraine -- and that such photographs will greatly outnumber the portraits of those killed in World War II, say analysts.

The cancellation of the Immortal Regiment march is a serious blow to Putin, who marched with a portrait of his father in 2022.

Authorities in Moscow heightened security ahead of this year's Victory Day parade, which comes amid a spate of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory.

The authorities of Belgorod, Bryansk, Pskov, Ryazan and Kursk provinces, as well as in occupied Crimea, decided to cancel the traditional Victory Day parade and limit themselves to congratulating veterans. Some cited security concerns.

Hiding war losses

The festivities come two days after Putin vowed at a lavish inauguration to deliver "victory" to Russians, embarking on a record-breaking fifth term.

Putin's 87% landslide victory in the presidential election was panned by most international observers and dismissed as rigged by opposition and rights groups.

Victory Day and Immortal Regiment marches are sacred events for Putin, whose political strategy -- and modern Russia's entire ideology -- are built around them, analysts say.

But the Kremlin has no desire to betray the true extent of its casualties in Ukraine.

"Who can guarantee that portraits of the current war dead from among Russia's citizens will not be brought to the march? And to a certain extent, that could agitate Russian society," said Vladislav Seleznev, military analyst and former spokesperson for the Ukrainian military general staff.

If Russians bring portraits of troops killed in Ukraine, then everyone would see how many men have died, and protests could break out, he said.

"It's one thing when Russians whisper in their kitchens that the war is senseless and bloody, but it's something else when a picture might become very, very public and very obvious," Seleznev told Kontur.

The Kremlin is tight-lipped about the number of casualties in Ukraine.

Foreign estimates put the number of Russian soldiers killed and injured in Ukraine at up to half a million.

"Russia's military failure is already apparent," French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné said in an interview with Russian independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta Europe published May 3.

"We estimate Russian military losses at 500,000, including 150,000 deaths," he said.

In April, UK Minister of State for the Armed Forces Leo Docherty estimated about 450,000 Russians have been killed or wounded.

Hiding such losses is a big problem for the Kremlin.

Even if the Kremlin can prevent processions from occurring in large cities, spontaneous parades could occur in villages and small towns.

"And then there would be a very unpleasant picture because of how many of these dead there are," said Ihor Reiterovych, a political scientist and director of political and legal programs at the Ukrainian Center for Social Development.

"This figure is clearly not small, and accordingly, Russia wants to hide it in every possible way," he told Kontur.

'It's all for show'

Russia's cancellation of Immortal Regiment events may reflect the danger of mass gatherings becoming a venue for discontent over the war in Ukraine, according to British intelligence.

"The potential for protests and discontent over the Ukraine war are [sic] also likely to have influenced the calculus of the Russia leadership," the UK Ministry of Defence tweeted May 6.

"Ukrainian drones are excuses [for Russia]," said Ihor Petrenko, a political scientist and director of United Ukraine, a think tank in Kyiv. "They are more afraid that they have no control over the situation and that 'Islamic State' or some other organization may take advantage of this."

But the main reason is something else entirely, he told Kontur.

"For Putin, this is purely a matter of propaganda. When it comes to how veterans are honored, it's a kind of cult. He cultivates this, and the situation with the 'Great Victory' [over the Nazis] is like a circus," said Petrenko.

"It's all for show," he said. "Russia doesn't care about veterans. They are most often remembered only on holidays, to present a beautiful picture."

"There have been cases when actors, not veterans, were at the parade," he added.

Nuclear forces 'on alert'

Only one tank appeared at this year's parade in Red Square -- a World War II T-34 museum piece, which was also the only tank at last year's parade.

In comparison, more than 20 tanks were present at the 2020 parade, according to news reports.

Although most of Russia's tanks and other military equipment are either in use or lost in Ukraine, Putin's address before thousands of soldiers was defiant, warning that his nuclear forces were "always" on alert.

"Russia will do everything to prevent a global clash, but at the same time we will not allow anyone to threaten us," he said. "Our strategic forces are always on alert."

Putin has upped his nuclear rhetoric. Earlier this week, he ordered the Russian military to hold nuclear weapon drills involving the navy and troops based near Ukraine.

Last year Russia ditched its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and pulled out of a key arms reduction agreement with the United States.

Russia's 'friends'

The number of representatives in attendance from countries Russia deems "friendly" was dwindling even before it sent troops into Ukraine.

Only eight world leaders attended this year's parade.

They are the presidents of five ex-Soviet countries -- Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan -- as well as the leaders of Cuba, Laos and Guinea-Bissau.

The Kremlin conveniently scheduled a summit of leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union -- a Russian-dominated bloc of former Soviet states -- the day before the parade.

In a high-profile snub, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan did not attend the parade, even though he was in Moscow for the regional summit.

"International leaders no longer attend Russian parades," said Seleznev, the military analyst. "But the possibility that representatives of pariah countries will come cannot be ruled out."

"The more time passes, the more Russia drives itself into this corner where pariah countries are numbered among its friends," he said.