By Tengo Gogotishvili and AFP | 2024-05-20

RIGA -- Authorities in Latvia are urging residents to turn basements into air-raid shelters, with many in the Baltic country concerned they could be Russia's next target, AFP reported in April.

Latvia, a European Union and NATO member, has a 214km-long border with Russia, and has been one of Ukraine's most reliable supporters.

"We call on everyone ... to ensure that your cellars and your basements can be used as shelters in case of emergencies," said Riga Mayor Vilnis Kirsis during the annual "Big Cleanup Day" in April.

Municipal employees will do the same for buildings belonging to the city, he said in a communique.

"The basements of public buildings, schools, retirement homes, hospitals and town halls will be inspected by the authorities who will prepare them to serve as hiding places in the event of an attack," said Gints Reinsons, director of a Riga civil defense commission.

The goal is to prepare 100 anti-bomb shelters a month through the end of the year, he told Latvia's TV24.

Russia's neighbors have been concerned about their own security even before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But since then, it has become clear to everyone that they must prepare for the worst.

Russian President Vladimir Putin struck a familiar and threatening tone in January, when he accused the Baltic states of "directly threatening [Russian] national security."

"We live next to a neighbor who, shall we say, is like an alcoholic or drug addict whose actions we cannot predict," Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina told public radio in March.

Preparing for the worst

Mežciems, an assisted living center in Riga home to more than 200 retirees, was among the facilities taking part in Big Cleanup Day.

Authorities are upgrading the dilapidated basement, which had been equipped as a bomb shelter and storage facility since the center began operating in 1975.

"The next step will be the improvement of the basement -- renewal and installation of water pipes, sewers, electrical installations, ventilation. Also, there is an idea to create additional exits," Solvita Rudovica, director of Mežciems, told Kontur.

The renovations are part of an overall effort to prepare for the worst.

"Faced with new security challenges ... we have established the civil defense structure, developed and approved the Riga civil defense plan," Linda Ozola, vice mayor of Riga, told Kontur in an email.

"Such measures should also be taken by other European countries, especially those bordering russia," she wrote, using a lowercase "r" on purpose.

Riga has emphasized informing residents about what to do in case of danger, where to take refuge and where to get help.

However, regular drills around the city revealed problems, including a lack of shelters and a lack of sufficient capacity among existing shelters.

"The city of Riga acts in accordance with the national guidelines," Reinsons told Kontur, referring to mandatory standards being implemented by Latvia for planned shelters in every major city.

Joint efforts

"The full-fledged Russian offensive in February 2022 taught [the] militaries of the Baltic States, Poland and Finland several lessons," Veiko Spolītis, Latvia's former deputy defense minister, told Kontur.

Belarus and Russia cooked up the "hybrid migrant crisis" in January 2021, he noted, citing those two countries' attempt to overwhelm Polish, Lithuanian and Latvian border guards with Middle Eastern refugees.

Those crises made clear "the need to upgrade infrastructure on our Eastern border," he said.

"The better prepared for the war one is, the better chances one has to overcome the foe," said Spolītis.

At the beginning of the year, the defense ministers of the three Baltic countries held a special meeting where they decided to coordinate steps against the Russian threat.

Topics included plans for joint shell production, joint purchases of modern air defense systems and other policies, in combination with traditional defense measures, such as creating anti-tank barriers along the border or equipping bunkers for the onset of war.

Estonia committed to build 600 bunkers along its 294km-long border with Russia, with an initial budget of €60 million.

Each bunker is supposed to accommodate 10 soldiers, and the Defense Ministry plans to begin construction in early 2025, the London Independent reported in April, citing Estonian public broadcaster ERR.

"We already spend 2.2% of our GDP on defense and will reach 3% by 2027," Spolītis said.

"Latvian taxpayers know that the next three years our defense sector would invest additional €100 million every year in the Baltic Defense Line."

For its part, Lithuania will build 18 "counter-mobility" centers for storing anti-tank mines and anti-personnel and anti-vehicle equipment.

Each country will deepen drainage ditches in its border region to create physical barriers, the Center for European Policy Analysis reported in February.

NATO support

NATO, whose members include Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, has also been actively shoring up defenses in the region.

The alliance's Enhanced Forward Presence is deployed in every country in the region, with eight multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

From day one, NATO allies have also protected the Baltic nations' skies by turn.

"We would be [an] easier target for Russia, than Ukraine, without being a member of NATO," Jānis Sārts, director of the NATO Center of Excellence in Riga, told Kontur.

"Whether that would be a full-scale invasion, I do not know. But we would be much more vulnerable."

Time is running out, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, a candidate for NATO secretary general, warned at the European Defence and Security Summit 2024 in Brussels in April.

Russian forces are more numerous than they were two years ago, and Russia's military-industrial complex is turning out far more equipment and ammunition than does the Euro-Atlantic community combined, she said, according to New Voice of Ukraine.

"Everyone agrees that they [Russia] will be ready and willing for a next war. All they will be looking for is an opportunity -- which we must deny them," she said.