By Olha Hembik | 2025-05-19

WARSAW -- A Russian bomb, released mid-flight by one of Moscow's own jets, tore through the quiet of Belgorod. This self-inflicted blast might seem like an isolated mishap, but it has become a pattern: this year so far, at least 61 bombs and three missiles have landed on Russian territory or in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.

Military analysts say the incidents stem from a mix of shoddy weapon design, overworked flight crews and a shrinking pool of skilled pilots. Yet each time, Moscow points the finger at Ukraine, turning its own technical failures into fodder for wartime propaganda.

In mid-April, Belgorod province saw a string of accidental bomb drops. Soviet-designed FAB (high-explosive) munitions struck the village of Orlovka twice, on April 12 and 14. The following day, a bomb landed in a field near Krutoy Log. Just days later, on April 18, locals discovered another bomb near Moshchenoye.

Nobody was injured or killed.

Earlier, on April 9, Russian bombs damaged eight houses in the village of Tsibulevka. The day before, a resident of Belgorod province was injured when a FAB aerial bomb detonated in front of his car, spraying shrapnel and causing multiple wounds.

According to estimates, Russian aircraft dropped at least 165 FAB aerial bombs on Russia in 2024.

Technical problems and defective goods

Every bomb landing on Russian soil is a bomb that did not hit Ukraine, military historian Andrii Kharuk noted. While accidental releases of munitions can happen in any air campaign, Kharuk emphasizes the current surge is tied to the sheer volume of weapons being used.

"The Russians are using guided bombs by the thousands," he told Kontur.

A core issue, he explains, lies in the flawed design of the guidance systems attached to Soviet-era FAB bombs.

The mechanism governing the wings on bombs that can fly from Russia into Ukraine is frequently defective.

"A bomb with an unopened wing will not fly for several dozen kilometers. It will fall right from the plane," said Kharuk.

Russia began rapidly developing a system to convert conventional high-explosive bombs into guided munitions in 2023, driven by urgent demand on the battlefield, said military analyst and historian Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov.

Russia rushed the system into production without proper diagnostic infrastructure, leading to a high failure rate, he told Kontur.

Many of the modified bombs are too defective to use, he said.

The more Russia relies on these improvised weapons, the more frequently they malfunction, Zhyrokhov noted.

Inferior aviation munitions have long plagued the Russian military, according to Kharuk.

"It's no coincidence that [the Russians] launch Kh-101 cruise missiles from Tu-95s above the Caspian Sea," Kharuk said, explaining that some missile engines fail to start.

In such cases, the missiles "fall into the sea," because the designers built them to "avoid falling somewhere in a populated area" if they had such a manifest defect.

Incompetent and demoralized crews

The rising number of accidental bomb drops is also linked to human error. According to a report by ASTRA in April citing British intelligence, "the fatigue and incompetence of warplanes' Russian crews" are contributing to the abnormal bombings.

Four different causes of stress are degrading the quality of Russian pilots, said Zhyrokhov and Strelnikov.

Many of the experienced pilots who were flying in February 2022 have since moved to reserve status or non-flying roles, said Zhyrokhov.

"They were replaced by second-rate and third-rate pilots. And the quality of pilot training has deteriorated," he said.

Second, other pilots have been flying for three years, because Russia has failed to adequately rotate those particular flight crews.

"The Russians are fighting with the same regiments that have been on the western front since 2022. The same pilots are flying. Crews making their fourth or fifth flight in a day obviously make mistakes," he said.

Third, pilot casualties play a role, Mikhailo Strelnikov, who is working to create a Museum of Victory over Despotism in Poland, said.

Ukraine, he told Kontur, has already "shot down the [Russian] pilots who were masters of their craft," and training replacements takes time and money.

Fourth, declining morale among Russian air crews is another reason they accidentally bomb their own people, according to Strelnikov.

"Russian crews know that as they approach the Ukrainian border, they are in range of F-16 fighters, closer to air defense and to HIMARS missiles," he said. "Some people's nerves just can't take it."

'The locals aren't wearing rose-colored glasses'

In each incident of abnormal bombing in Belgorod province and elsewhere, the Russian side has been quick to blame the Ukrainian military.

Moscow uses these disastrous errors by its own pilots to advance the claim that Ukraine is targeting civilians, said Zhyrokhov.

"Most [Russians] won't look into it. They completely trust the Russian Ministry of Defense, so they will accept it as the truth," he said.

On the other hand, in a stricken area, information can circulate and residents often know what really happened, he said. He cited perceptive comments on videos posted by residents of bombed villages in Belgorod province.

Kharuk draws a parallel to the Soviet era, suggesting that while residents of the affected regions may publicly repeat the official line, they express different views privately.

"Even if they say that the Ukrainians are firing at them, they may say something completely different in their kitchens," he said, referencing fears of prosecution.

Outside observers tend to dismiss Russian official statements, Strelnikov added. "No one takes seriously what [authorities] say in Russia," he said, though he acknowledges that many Russians remain under the influence of state propaganda.