By Galina Korol | 2025-06-04

KYIV -- After years of mounting pressure, Vilnius has taken Belarus to the International Court of Justice, accusing Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime of weaponizing migration.

Lithuanian officials describe the border surge as a deliberate, state-orchestrated operation designed to destabilize Lithuania and test the resilience of the European Union (EU).

"Despite repeated requests for cooperation, the Belarusian border authorities refused to collaborate with the Lithuanian authorities to stop these illegal border crossings," reads the May 19 statement by the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry.

Lithuania's lawsuit cites substantial evidence against Belarus and seeks full compensation, including for border fortifications. Vilnius also demands guarantees against future violations.

President Gitanas Nausėda urged other countries in the region to join the case, even at a later stage.

"The fact that we have shown leadership is very good. We have shown that what is happening in neighboring countries is unacceptable to us," said Nausėda during a Žinių Radijas radio broadcast, LRT reported May 20.

Minsk as 'Moscow's hand'

Belarus continues to deny any involvement in the migration crisis.

"We categorically reject these accusations, which do not stand up to any criticism," a Belarusian representative said during a United Nations (UN) Commission on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice meeting in Vienna, Zerkalo reported May 20.

Although Belarus and Russia use migrants as a hybrid weapon at the border, Lukashenka can still cite the law in denying fault, said Pawel Usow, a political scientist and director of the Center for Analysis and Political Forecasting in Warsaw.

"[Lukashenka] can simply say, 'Lift the sanctions against me, and I'll stop the migrants. Why should I stop them if they're coming to you?'" he told Kontur.

In 2019, Belarus and the EU signed an agreement in which Minsk committed to curb migrant flows in exchange for financial aid, he said.

After the international community imposed sanctions on the Belarusian regime as punishment for stealing the 2020 presidential election, however, Minsk suspended its readmission agreement with the EU in October 2021, abandoning its obligations to control migration.

Since then, the border crisis in countries neighboring Belarus has intensified. Waves of migrants, primarily from Iraq and Syria, have repeatedly attempted to breach the borders of Lithuania and Poland.

Migrants fly to Belarus either nonstop or via Russia before being funneled toward the border, where the Belarusian security service, the KGB, facilitates their crossings, said Yaroslav Kuts, a Kyiv lawyer and director of the law firm A2KT.

The migrant influx costs Belarus little, as migrants fund themselves and bring supplies, said Usow. Confined to the border and blocked from retreat, they are, he added, treated with indifference by Belarusian authorities.

"We all understand perfectly well that Belarus is not some autonomous democratic country," Kuts told Kontur. "Belarus is purely a Russian satellite, and Russia is an aggressor country that tries to do everything through proxies."

Physical violence at the border

The situation remains tense at the Belarusian-Lithuanian border, where physical clashes still happen regularly.

On May 3, local media reported that migrants headed for Lazdijai district, Lithuania, attempted to scale the border fence using a ladder. When border guards intervened, the group responded by throwing sticks and stones. No injuries were reported, and the migrants eventually retreated to Belarus.

Authorities have blocked 628 illegal crossings in Lithuania so far this year, compared to 1,002 attempts in 2024, LRT reported in early May.

Poland faces similar pressure. Over the weekend of May 17-18, more than 500 migrants attempted to cross from Belarus, many acting aggressively and throwing stones, LIGA.net reported. Since early May, Polish authorities have recorded more than 1,900 such incidents.

'A tool for manipulation'

"This will go on forever," said Usow, arguing that the hybrid operation orchestrated by Lukashenka and Russia's Vladimir Putin has turned into a long-term propaganda campaign, aimed at destabilizing Europe by exploiting divided public opinion.

Some propagandist voices accuse the EU of cruelty. Others demand tighter borders.

"This is a tool for manipulation. It intensifies internal conflicts and stirs up emotions within the EU countries and between neighbors," added Usow.

"By using migrants, especially illegal ones, it is easy to exhaust resources and overload the system of any particular democratic state," said Oleg Lisny, a Ukrainian political scientist and president of Politika (Policy), a think tank.

This dynamic forces countries to divert increasing resources to border security at the expense of development.

"So, should [he] think this mechanism is efficient, Lukashenka won't abandon it. After all, at present he cannot be punished physically," Lisny told Kontur.

A verdict for the future

Lithuania's lawsuit signals a principled stand and seeks to put Lukashenka's actions on record internationally.

Analysts call it a necessary step but doubt it will bring quick results or real consequences for Minsk, viewing it as more symbolic than practical.

"Sanctions are economic at most," explained Kuts. "We understand that the UN will not send any peacekeeping forces because Russia and China have veto power. They will support Belarus."

A court ruling could allow for compensation but offers no guarantee the violations will stop, he said.

"The primary cause of this problem is Russia and its aggressive policy," Lisny said. "As long as Putin's regime and Lukashenka's regime exist, any judicial steps will be legally sound, but they will be deferred into the future."

Belarus will face real consequences only "when Russia collapses," he added.