By Murad Rakhimov | 2025-09-24

Fewer people want to "return home" to Russia than at any point in more than a decade.

A Kremlin-backed resettlement program saw only 31,700 people actually move to Russia in 2024, the lowest figure since 2011, despite 36,400 applications, Kommersant reported in March.

By contrast, in 2022 -- the year Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine -- 112,700 applied and 64,800 resettled.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs called the decline "expected," attributing it to the new rules that require most migrants to pass a Russian language exam. Exemptions apply to citizens of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Ukraine.

All others must show proficiency "sufficient for oral and written communication in a language environment," under a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin on March 30, 2023.

The rule took effect on January 1, 2024, and was later amended by Decree No. 634 on September 8 this year. The update added exemptions for Russian citizens and recognized education completed after September 1, 1991, at Russian-operated or jointly run universities abroad, provided classes were taught in Russian.

But some lawmakers say language rules are only part of the problem. Konstantin Zatulin, a State Duma deputy from the ruling United Russia party, argued that rising anti-migrant sentiment is also driving the decline.

"The Ministry of Internal Affairs used to count everyone as compatriots, Tajiks, Uzbeks and Kyrgyz, which fueled the rise in migrant phobia," Zatulin told Kommersant.

Amid a population decline of 600,000 last year and rising xenophobia, Russia still needs migrants but often pushes them toward deportation or military service. More than 10 regions have barred them from jobs in education, food service and transport.

Zatulin pointed to the Kaluga region, which withdrew from the resettlement program in 2022. He said that while 80% of participants there were once Slavic, that share had fallen to 17% by 2022, with most newcomers arriving from Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

In contrast, Russia's human rights commissioner, Tatyana Moskalkova, has called for resettling anyone who wishes to return.

"It seems to me that we must do everything possible to bring back those who consider themselves compatriots based on culture, their historical roots, views, and value system. This is very important," she told RIA Novosti in December.

The mirage of stability

Russia launched its resettlement program on June 22, 2006, to bring back people left outside its borders after the Soviet collapse and to counter a deepening demographic crisis. It offers a simplified path to citizenship, relocation reimbursements, regional allowances and unemployment benefits.

Russia's fertility rate, in decline since the Soviet era, bottomed out in 1999, rose until 2015, then fell again.

Early 2025 data put it at 1.399, the lowest in 18 years, worsened by war casualties and emigration. Deaths had already outpaced births, peaking in 2005, just months before the program began.

Participation grew steadily at first, drawing not only ethnic Russians but also other groups with historic ties to Russia. Eligibility later widened to cover emigrants and their descendants from the Russian Empire, the Russian Republic and the Soviet Union.

By 2011, 29,462 people had resettled under the program. That number soared to 183,146 by 2015.

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted program statistics, and arrivals fell steadily after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

"Russia has lost its appeal as a place to live due to its aggressor status and growing international isolation," Canadian YouTuber and former journalist Ulugbek Khaydarov, who runs the Negativ channel, told Kontur.

"Even traditional migration flows from [Commonwealth of Independent States] CIS countries are shrinking: the war's consequences, sanctions and declining living standards make it less attractive even to neighbors."

Russian human rights activist and blogger Alexander Kim said another factor is the shrinking pool of potential repatriates and ethnic Russians in neighboring states. He added that migration from CIS countries is likely declining for technical and economic reasons.

"People of conscription age or their parents might be more cautious about choosing Russia for citizenship," Kim told Kontur. "But I personally know a family that moved from Kazakhstan in 2023, after the war began. They have a son around 30, unmarried and without children, and they evidently saw the risk of forced mobilization as negligible."

Behind the curtain

Not only are fewer people moving to Russia, many are leaving.

Exact numbers are unclear, but the Russian website To Be Exact and the Finnish Institute of International Affairs estimate about 800,000 left during the first year of the war in Ukraine. The UK Defense Ministry put the figure as high as 1.3 million by May 2023.

Meanwhile, Russian state media has claimed that 40% to 45% of those who left had returned by early May 2024, unable to cope with life abroad.

But the Russian Institute for Applied Economic Research found only about 10% of emigrants had returned, based on a 2024 survey of nearly 3,500 people who left in 2022-23 and spent at least three months abroad.

Most fled the war, mobilization and political repression, resettling in CIS and Baltic states, Asia, the United States and the European Union. The largest waves came just after the February 2022 invasion and during that fall's mobilization.

EU member states issued 78,800 first residence permits to Russians in 2024, down 33% from a record 117,600 in 2023.

Independent outlet Verstka reported that EU residence permits for Russians in 2024 had fallen back to pre-war levels. Spain issued the most at 17,100, followed by Germany with 13,200 and Cyprus with 5,800. Ireland saw the sharpest drop, granting 64.5% fewer permits.

Alisher Ilkhamov, director of London-based Central Asia Due Diligence, said the decline reflects fewer applications. The first wave in 2022 was largely made up of Russians opposed to the war, when mass mobilization was a looming threat. Authorities later shifted to high-paying contract recruitment.

"There have been no recent signs that Putin plans a new mobilization, as it could destabilize the country and disrupt the economy's labor supply," Ilkhamov told Kontur.

He said fewer Russians can now sustain life in Europe, as the first wave drew many highly skilled professionals, particularly in IT. Those who stayed in Russia or returned often hold lucrative jobs, especially in the military-industrial sector.

"But we can't overlook the EU's growing concerns about hybrid warfare," Ilkhamov added. "Russian intelligence is exploiting the migrant outflow to infiltrate agents into Europe for terrorist attacks and sabotage, prompting stricter document scrutiny for residence applicants."