By Ekaterina Janashia | 2025-11-12

A freight train loaded with more than 1,000 tons of wheat rumbled into Armenia on November 5, the largest cargo to travel through Azerbaijani territory into the country in decades. Its journey offered the first visible proof of the US-brokered peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan taking hold -- a deal that had previously existed only on paper.

Days later, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that the peace process had entered its implementation phase, a cautious but significant sign that one of the region's most entrenched rivalries may finally be giving way to cooperation in the South Caucasus.

From framework to reality

The US-mediated peace deal, signed by Armenia and Azerbaijan on August 8, represented the most significant breakthrough in the region since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

While initially dismissed by skeptics as another symbolic framework, its early implementation, including the reopening of transport links and the easing of customs restrictions, suggests that both sides are beginning to translate the agreement into reality.

Washington's direct involvement has reshaped the diplomatic landscape. The framework was the first regional accord to be brokered entirely outside Moscow's orbit. It highlighted waning Russian influence and reasserted the United States as a credible mediator in a part of the world once considered Moscow's backyard.

Pashinyan's government publicly announced on November 6 that the process had moved into its "implementation phase," emphasizing that peace "requires daily attention."

From the Bush street to the 'Trump route'

The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal is reshaping the balance of power across the South Caucasus, weakening Russia's hold and opening space for new US and European influence.

For years, Georgia served as the region's main Western partner, while Armenia remained tied to Moscow through its conflict with Azerbaijan. Now, those roles are shifting. Armenia is turning westward under a US-brokered accord, and Georgia's once-firm pro-Western stance has eroded under billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili's Kremlin-leaning government.

Russia's failure to defend its allies during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war exposed its limits as a security guarantor. That, combined with the war in Ukraine, has pushed regional powers to look toward the European Union and new trade routes.

A key piece of the peace deal is a 43-kilometer (27-mile) corridor -- the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP) -- connecting Armenia to Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave. Jointly managed by the United States and Armenia, it's intended to anchor a Central Asia-to-Europe trade network known as the Middle Corridor.

"Russia's influence is clearly weakening, not only in the South Caucasus but also across its historical sphere of influence," Alex Petriashvili, senior fellow at Tbilisi-based Rondeli Foundation, told Kontur.

"This significant decline is evidenced by several factors," he said.

"The electoral defeat of pro-Russian forces in Moldova, the fall of the Assad regime and Russia's exclusion from Syria, its weak positioning during the 12-day Israeli-Iranian war, the strengthening of China's influence in Central Asia, and the minimization of Russia's role in Azerbaijani-Armenian relations."

If it is successful

By signing a memorandum aimed at boosting stability and security, the South Caucasus could regain foreign investors' confidence, analysts say.

Armenia, long isolated by closed borders with Azerbaijan and Türkiye, stands to benefit most. The new peace deal is expected to reopen those routes and revive regional trade. A central piece is the TRIPP, previously known as the Zangezur Corridor, which will link Armenia and Azerbaijan and connect the region to wider transit networks.

The International Crisis Group said in September the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace could transform the South Caucasus by reopening borders and positioning it as a key link between Europe and Asia, deepening its integration into the global economy.

In August, experts at the Caspian Policy Center said the agreement could drive economic growth by stabilizing politics and tying Armenia into regional transport networks, making the South Caucasus more appealing to investors. They noted it would likely diversify the economy and strengthen sectors such as infrastructure, energy and manufacturing.

Azerbaijan, meanwhile, has advanced plans to become a transport and trade hub as it looks beyond oil and gas. Baku hopes to join Europe-Asia routes that bypass Russia, but meaningful EU investment will depend on agreements with Armenia and Georgia on how those corridors take shape.

For Armenia, the peace deal offers long-sought overland access to Russia, Iran, Central Asia and Europe. The Middle Corridor provides a shorter, more flexible path -- one that could enhance global trade resilience.

What to expect

For decades, the South Caucasus has been a flashpoint of rivalries, unresolved conflicts, and missed diplomatic chances.

Analysts warn that Armenia and Azerbaijan should expect Moscow and Tehran to try to undermine the peace process through disinformation. With the United States now leading talks in a region once dominated by Russia, Moscow is likely to focus more heavily on Georgia, Hudson Institute senior fellow Luke Coffey wrote in October.

Some experts say the Kremlin could even attempt to sway Armenian politics to install a more compliant leader.

"Russia views maintaining and strengthening its influence in Georgia -- largely through the backing of the Georgian Dream party -- as a critical strategic priority," Petriashvili said. "Russia recognizes that solidifying its position in Georgia is key to retaining influence over Armenia and preserving its overall presence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia."

The region, particularly Azerbaijan, is a key US and European transit corridor into Central Asia. The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal and the TRIPP initiative represent a notable diplomatic gain for Washington, giving it a chance to consolidate influence in a strategically vital crossroads, experts say.