By Murad Rakhimov | 2026-01-21

Russians are earning more than they did a few years ago, but most cannot say what they will be making by the end of the year. Even as official statistics point to rising incomes, nearly two-thirds of the population says it cannot forecast household earnings 12 months ahead.

Data from the November report by Public Opinion Foundation show that half of Russian citizens can predict their income no more than six months in advance, a notable increase from two years ago. The results point to a shrinking planning horizon at a time when wages, at least on paper, continue to rise.

The Russian Central Bank commissions the foundation to conduct monthly surveys on inflation, savings and household finances. Once a year, respondents are asked how far ahead they can forecast their income.

Over the past year, more respondents said they can project income only for very short periods, from less than a month to six months. The share able to plan further ahead has remained flat.

The most common answer was two to three months. Smaller but equal shares said they could forecast income for one month, four to six months, or seven to 12 months. A significant minority said they did not know what their income would be even a month ahead.

Shorter planning horizons

Income level strongly shapes how far ahead Russians can plan. Wealthier households more often reported being able to forecast income one to three years in advance. By contrast, respondents who lack money for food or clothing most frequently said they could forecast income only for a month or could not forecast it at all.

The Public Opinion Foundation suggested that many people in this group lack stable employment and rely on short-term or gig work. After receiving money, they spend it immediately on necessities. Higher income, the foundation noted, is closely associated with stable jobs.

Official statistics nonetheless show sustained income growth. Rosstat, Russia's state statistics service, reported that real incomes rose 9.2% from January to September 2025 compared with the same period a year earlier, while real wages increased 4.5%. Income growth was fastest among poorer households, while some wealthier Russians saw declines.

That shift became visible in surveys in the second half of 2023, when more respondents said their financial situation and opportunities to save had improved.

But wage growth has not been uniform. A November survey by Opora Rossii and Promsvyazbank found that real wages rose in 2025 for only about one-third of small businesses.

"The wage boom has cooled off," Promsvyazbank noted.

Life in wartime economy

Despite rising income figures, surveys suggest most Russians remain financially constrained. Only about one-third have savings to rely on if income disappears. Roughly 70% say they are forced to budget and give up certain purchases.

Between 5 and 8% report not having enough money for food. More than 20% say they can afford food but not clothing or shoes. Expectations about the future have also deteriorated: the share of people who believe their material situation will worsen has reached its highest level in nine years. Growth in bank deposits has slowed sharply.

Tens of millions of Russians are living in a "prepoverty" state, able to afford only food and basic goods, Dmitry Belousov, head of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, said according to an RBC December report.

In the first nine months of 2025, 7.2% of Russians, or about 10.5 million people, considered themselves poor, according to Rosstat.

Consumer behavior reflects this strain. Demand has shifted toward cheaper goods, with more purchases made during promotions or sales.

"According to trade companies from all over Russia, a growing share of products was purchased on promotion, during sales, or at a discount," the Russian Central Bank reported.

Alexander Kim, a Russian blogger and rights activist, said Russians increasingly link income growth in certain sectors to the war.

"There is unquestionably income growth, and there is growing inflation, which depreciates income. In Russia an entire stratum of people receiving considerable income from the war has sprung up," Kim told Kontur.

These incomes largely flow to families of mercenaries, who often accumulate savings and face fewer creditor demands. Kim said such families frequently try to convert that capital into real estate, a move he said goes beyond simply hedging against inflation.

"I know from talking to Russian émigrés that, for example, for people who can't return to Russia, it's now getting more expensive to meet up with family on neutral territory," Kim said.

For Russians without war-related income supplements, even travel to Turkey has become burdensome, he added.

No relief ahead

Political analyst Anvar Nazirov described Russia's economy as a mobilization model deliberately built around the military-industrial complex.

"The Kremlin has a goal: to make people dependent on the war economy, which in turn depends on the continuation of the war," Nazirov told Kontur.

Nazirov said this dependence will become increasingly visible as inflation accelerates and civilian manufacturing shrinks. But he does not expect public sentiment to turn decisively against the government.

"Although society has been ruined by the war and genuine propaganda in the tradition of Goebbels, we shouldn't expect to see any protests. The [Vladimir] Putin regime's punitive system now looks like what existed under the Third Reich or Fascist Italy. It's capable of quashing dissenters in the most brutal manner," he said.

Alisher Ilkhamov, director of the London-based Central Asia Due Diligence center, said wartime economies often experience an initial surge followed by decline. In Russia, early growth was driven by military spending and generous payments to contract soldiers.

Over time, that effect fades as recessionary pressures mount and incomes fall, Ilkhamov said. Falling oil and gas revenues, Ukrainian strikes on economic targets, and the cumulative impact of sanctions are intensifying the strain.

The government can no longer sustain military spending at previous levels.

"Surveys of the population document the effect of these developments -- more people are complaining about their material situation getting worse. In 2026 this trend will only intensify," Ilkhamov told Kontur.