By Olha Hembik | 2026-01-29

WARSAW -- When a Warsaw shopping mall burned to the ground and explosives later damaged a rail line near Poland's eastern border, Polish officials said the message from Moscow was clear. The Kremlin, they argue, is testing how much pressure Poland will tolerate, and many Poles now want their government to hit back harder.

Cyberattacks on state institutions, acts of sabotage and arson blamed on Russian intelligence and reports of Russian drones over Polish airspace have driven relations between Warsaw and Moscow to their lowest point in decades. Tensions worsened after Poland emerged as one of Ukraine's strongest backers following Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, lobbying in the European Parliament, supplying military and humanitarian aid and taking in millions of Ukrainian refugees.

A recent survey commissioned by Wirtualna Polska and conducted by United Surveys shows growing public appetite for a tougher response. Asked whether Poland should take "more decisive actions against Russia" in light of hostile acts on Polish territory, 56.5% of respondents supported measures such as severing diplomatic relations or fully barring Russian citizens from entering Poland. About 30.5% opposed such steps, while 13% said they had no opinion.

"I don't believe in cutting off diplomatic relations. That's a bad idea. You need to keep the channels of communication open even with your enemy," Wojciech Warchoł, an activist who combats hate speech on the Polish internet by reporting violations to the Prosecutor General's Office, told Kontur.

Intimidation is the goal

Polish authorities say Russia's hybrid campaign crossed a threshold in 2024 with an arson attack on the Marywilska 44 shopping mall in Warsaw. The fire spread across roughly six hectares, or about 15 acres, destroying 1,400 shops, most owned by Vietnamese merchants.

In a joint statement, Poland's interior and justice ministries accused Russian intelligence services of orchestrating the attack, saying "a person in Russia" coordinated the arsonists. Moscow has denied involvement.

The Kremlin's aim is to "intimidate and demonstrate that no one in Europe [including in Poland] can feel safe," Serhii Zhukov, an analyst at the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security, told Kontur.

The sabotage seeks to pressure Poland into distancing itself from the war in Ukraine and cutting off military and humanitarian aid, according to Zhukov.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk responded at the time with a blunt message on X: "We will get you all!"

Warsaw soon followed with diplomatic retaliation.

In May 2024, Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski announced the closure of Russia's consulate in Krakow. Months earlier, Poland shut down the Russian consulate in Poznań after authorities uncovered a plot by Russian intelligence to set fire to a paint factory. The attack was thwarted and the suspected saboteur arrested.

Russia responded by withdrawing consent for Polish consulates in Kaliningrad and Saint Petersburg to operate, further reducing diplomatic presence on both sides.

Decisive measures

Sabotage escalated again in mid-November 2025, when explosive devices damaged a railway line linking Warsaw with Dorohusk, a key route toward Ukraine. One blast occurred near the town of Mika, and investigators later found damage closer to Lublin. There were no casualties.

Sikorski said Poland would revoke authorization for Russia's last remaining consulate general, in Gdańsk, to operate. Moscow retaliated by closing Poland's final consulate in Russia, in Irkutsk. The Polish Foreign Ministry said it disagreed with the move, noting that Poland was not committing acts of sabotage or subversion on Russian soil.

Warchoł argued that countering Russian actions requires steps that go beyond guarding infrastructure.

"The Russians only respect strength and decisiveness. They need to understand that their actions will be very costly for them. The price will be high. For instance, if one of their planes enters our airspace, it should be shot down. Concessions are weakness," he said.

Polish authorities, however, have stopped short of a complete diplomatic rupture, opting instead for targeted closures, security measures and tighter controls.

A hybrid war

The standoff has also extended into sports and visa policy.

In January, Polish authorities refused visas to Russian athletes cleared by the International Ski and Snowboard Federation to compete as "individual neutral athletes" at the Ski Jumping World Cup in Zakopane. The Foreign Ministry cited a 2022 directive restricting the entry of Russian citizens into Poland.

At the European level, visa rules have tightened as well.

While Russian opposition figure Yulia Navalnaya has urged the EU not to impose blanket tourist visa bans, the European Commission said in November that multiple-entry visas for Russian nationals would be discontinued and applications would face enhanced scrutiny.

Warchoł said Russia's conduct reflects a deeper pattern.

"Russia has always been imperialist. It's like it's in their DNA. To a great extent, Russia needs someone like [Vladimir] Putin," he said, while adding that many Russians reject the system.

He said he does not oppose letting Russians visit Poland, arguing that exposure to life in a democratic society can be instructive.

"Let them see that it's better to live under other principles, how Poland lives, for example," he said, adding that authorities must "thoroughly check who is aiming to come in." Sanctions and restrictions on athletes should remain, he added.

Mykhailo Strelnikov, founder of the Museum of Victory over Despotism in Poland, said that despite public anger reflected in opinion polls, diplomatic ties with Russia are unlikely to be severed in the near future. Poles want to "remain at a distance from Russia," but face internal and external constraints.

"For the money that Russia is spending on the information war in Europe, you can buy up a huge number of media outlets and politicians," Strelnikov told Kontur. He said leaders in Ukraine and the European Parliament have repeatedly warned about the risks posed by Russia's hybrid campaign.

In response to new threats, Poland is strengthening cybersecurity and counter-disinformation efforts. This winter, every household received a free safety handbook with practical guidance on avoiding manipulation and staying safe amid what officials describe as an ongoing hybrid war.