By Murad Rakhimov | 2026-04-23

The cable is 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) long. It is made of glass. And it may determine who wins the drone war.

Fiber optic cables, invisible to electronic warfare (EW) jammers and impossible to intercept, have become the connective tissue of modern battlefield drone operations. First-person view (FPV) drones guided by fiber optic lines cannot be blinded by EW -- the dominant defense against conventional radio-controlled UAVs. Now, both Russia and Ukraine are running out of them.

Prices for optical fiber from Chinese suppliers have jumped two-and-a-half to four times since the beginning of the year, according to Alisher Ilkhamov, director of the Central Asia Due Diligence center in London.

China controls 58% of global production. For Russian buyers specifically, the cost of a single kilometer of optical fiber rose from 16 yuan ($2.34) to 40 yuan ($5.85) between early 2025 and January 2026 -- a 150% increase in one year.

"The question is whether Russia and Ukraine have enough funds to keep up with these prices," Ilkhamov told Kontur. "A sustained rise in oil prices would give Russia the advantage in this regard."

Russia's factory problem

Russia once had a domestic solution. The country's only fiber optic manufacturing facility opened in Saransk, Mordovia, in September 2015. Ukrainian drones struck it on the night of April 5, 2025. As of March 2026, Russia's largest technology publication reported a restart is at least two years away.

The strike exposed a structural weakness. Expert Anvar Nazirov describes the situation as a classic external bottleneck.

"Critical consumable is in high demand, its combat use is growing, yet the domestic production base has collapsed -- it no longer exists," Nazirov told Kontur. "Supply constraints could directly impact the effectiveness of Russia's drone operations."

In the medium term, he warned, shortages and cost increases could leave Russian forces with fewer FPV drones at their disposal, pushing commanders toward more cautious deployment and a partial retreat to radio-controlled platforms, which remain vulnerable to EW.

Russia's drone industry has long relied on Chinese components routed through intermediaries and obfuscation schemes, Reuters and other outlets have reported. Nazirov said the impact of any future supply restrictions will depend on enforcement.

"If the cutoff is only partial, Russia will likely adapt," he said. "But if the restrictions are broad, long-term, and backed by strict re-export controls, it will reduce the frequency of FPV drone use and weaken one of Russia's key advantages against powerful Ukrainian electronic warfare."

Ukraine's diversified bet

Ukrainian forces began receiving the "Ptashka" (Birdie) fiber optic drone in March 2026, with a strike range of up to 50 kilometers (31 miles) -- double the standard cable-flight ceiling. Russian media reported similar range records for their own platforms.

But Ukraine made a strategic decision early on not to go all-in on fiber optics. Ukrainian military observer Vasyl Pekhnyo told Kontur that fiber optic drones only appeared in significant numbers at the front in early 2025, when Russian forces first deployed them extensively during the Kursk operation. Ukraine watched, adapted, and kept developing alternatives, particularly analog drones operating on non-standard radio frequencies.

"Ukraine is currently better prepared," Pekhnyo said. "We did not focus exclusively on fiber-optic drones, unlike the Russians, who were the first to deploy them."

That diversification is now paying off. With fiber optics facing both supply constraints and price spikes, forces that rely on a single solution face the steepest exposure.

A niche tool, not a revolution

Fiber optic drone guidance is not a new universal model of warfare, it is a forced adaptation, Nazirov said. Shifting to cable-based control ensures stable connection and precise guidance despite jamming. But strict limits on range, maneuverability, and scalability mean these systems complement rather than replace conventional radio-controlled drones.

Traditional UAVs have a future, Pekhnyo said, but it depends on scaling platforms that operate on non-standard frequencies, saturating specific front sectors with enough drones and operators to form what he called a "strike fist."

"This is not a degradation of technology," Nazirov said, "but an increasingly complex combat environment where sides must combine different solutions to counter the growing effectiveness of electronic warfare."