By Kontur and AFP | 2023-10-27

KYIV -- Russia is executing soldiers who defy orders in its bloody new offensive in eastern Ukraine, while suffering "significant" losses of armor and personnel, the White House said Thursday (October 26).

"We have information that the Russian military has been actually executing soldiers who are refusing to follow orders," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told a briefing.

"We also have information that Russian commanders are threatening to execute entire units if they seek to retreat from Ukrainian artillery fire," he added.

"It's reprehensible."

Kirby did not give further details when asked about the alleged executions or how the United States had obtained the information.

Russia has stepped up attacks near the town of Avdiivka in Donetsk province, Ukraine, and in Kupiansk city in a bid to move the front line forward before winter.

Moscow has suffered "significant losses" in the offensive including at least 125 armored vehicles and "thousands" of casualties, Kirby said.

"The Russian military appears to be using what we would call human wave tactics," he said. "It is unsurprising that Russian forces are suffering from poor morale."

Signs point to manpower shortage

Russia invaded its neighbor in February 2022 but has struggled mightily ever since.

"Since mid-September 2023, Russia has highly likely committed elements of its new 25th Combined Arms Army (25 CAA) to action for the first time. The formation started moving into Ukraine from late August 2023," the UK Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update on September 27.

"Units from two of 25 CAA's manoeuvre components, 67th Motor Rifle Division and 164th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, are reported to be fighting on the front in a sector west of Severodonetsk and Kreminna, along the border between Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," it said.

"Since the start of the invasion, Russia has only rarely maintained an uncommitted army-size grouping which could potentially form the basis of a major new offensive thrust," it added.

"As recently as August 2023, recruitment adverts for 25 CAA claimed it would only deploy to Ukraine from December 2023," the ministry noted in an earlier update on September 13.

Premature and desperate

The CAA's haste to join its bogged-down comrades did not go unnoticed.

"This is a reserve army, and the Russians planned to use it in the winter of 2023-2024, but they were forced to bring it out right now," Yuri Atanov, a political scientist serving in the Ukrainian military, told Kontur.

"Why did they make this decision? Because right now they don't have enough manpower at the front, Atanov said.

The Russian command has to shift units from one area to another to plug holes, because nobody is available to replace them from the rear, he said.

"They are now critically short of manpower. That may seem unbelievable. Russia has a population of 140 million -- enormous potential, it would seem -- but no, the problem here is completely different," Alexander Kovalenko of Kyiv, a military correspondent for the website InfoResist, told Kontur.

Russia has the manpower but no resources for the draft it needs. Commanders are unable to properly assemble and train soldiers and equip them with the standard complement of gear and vehicles, according to Kovalenko.

"In theory, the men exist. But bringing them together is very difficult. There are not enough barrack spaces, military units and training grounds to conduct at least some kind of training, even basic training. There are no resources for a draft, no capacity," said Kovalenko.

The first draft, which began a year ago, has not yet ended, since Russian President Vladimir Putin has not signed a corresponding decree, he noted.

According to Kovalenko's calculations, every day an average of about 700 new men are called up to fight in Ukraine.

"Their current draft intake capacity is 20,000-25,000 per month. This is critically insufficient for them. They should raise it to somewhere around 40,000-50,000 per month. But this cannot happen without a repressive increase in the draft," said Kovalenko.

Going AWOL or deserting

With each passing day, fewer men from Russia are willing to take part in hostilities in Ukraine.Some desert outright, while others prefer to set their own schedule -- namely, going absent without leave (AWOL).

Military units are increasingly looking for absent soldiers, accusing them of going AWOL per Article 337 of the Russian criminal code, Ivan Stupak, a former SBU officer and analyst at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future, told Kontur.

In Russia, the punishment for going AWOL is imprisonment for up to 10 years."There aren't enough men -- and men are needed. So, they are willing to chase after them and, incredibly, to punish them. Everyone who evades service gets [an] unbelievable prison term," said Stupak.

In the 11 months since the wartime draft began, Russian military courts have handled 2,930 cases related to new amendments to the Russian criminal code, according to Siberia.Realities.

These cases are mainly about going AWOL, insubordination, desertion and other military offenses.

According to the news outlet, the courts have already handed down guilty verdicts in approximately 75% of the cases.

"Russia has created a situation where someone goes to prison for not wanting to fight. And then he is offered a choice: you can sit in prison for 12 years, or you can go to fight under a contract and be released earlier. A closed loop," said Stupak.

Russia's casualties in the war also mean that inexperience is spreading.

"Commanders are trying to use numbers to compensate for a lack of experienced officers. In other words, they are simply throwing soldiers and officers to their inevitable death," said Vitaly Matvienko, who works for Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War and is a spokesperson for the "I Want to Live" project.

The Russian army has very low trust in its command and includes many "refuseniks," he said.

"Some of the refuseniks really do not want to fight, and they were forcibly drafted -- both officers and soldiers. And some have already been to hell and want to return home at least alive," Matvienko told Kontur.

"I Want to Live," a Ukrainian government project to help Russian troops surrender, has been active for more than a year, fielding more than 25,000 requests to its hotlines and messaging apps. The project's website has received more than 43 million visitors from Russia.

"At present, we can speak of 216 completed operations. And more than 1,000 deals are in progress. Russians who want to live, who understand what Putin and his regime are, who think and do not blindly follow orders are surrendering," said Matvienko.

Recruiting foreigners

To try to fill the holes in the front, the Kremlin is stepping up efforts to recruit Central Asian migrants, promising them fast-track citizenship and salaries.

"The Russians are constantly recruiting everyone they can. For example, you might get a passport [citizenship document], but in doing so you are immediately required to register at the draft office and even receive a summons. This is how they are trying to solve the shortage at the front," said Kovalenko the military analyst.

Russian authorities have even begun looking far beyond their borders for new recruits. Sometimes they have even reached across the ocean.

"The Russian military reportedly continues to recruit foreign volunteers to serve in relatively elite but likely degraded Russian Airborne (VDV) units," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a statement October 3.

"A Russian milblogger claimed on October 3 that volunteers from Nepal are serving in Russian Airborne (VDV) brigades," ISW noted, adding that it had previously reported that the presence of Cuban volunteers in the Russian 106th VDV Division.

Cuba's Foreign Ministry in September announced that Havana had uncovered a human trafficking network attempting to recruit Cubans to fight in Ukraine.

"The [Cuban] Ministry of the Interior has detected and it is working to neutralize and dismantle a human trafficking network that operates from Russia in order to incorporate Cuban citizens living there and even some living in Cuba, into the military forces that participate in military operations in Ukraine," the September 4 statement said.

"Attempts of this nature have been neutralized and criminal proceedings have been initiated against those involved in these activities," it added.