By Tengo Gogotishvili | 2023-12-13

TBILISI -- The Kremlin's plans for a base for its Black Sea Fleet in Ochamchire, in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia, could bring Georgia into conflict, say analysts.

The Black Sea Fleet, based in Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, has been repeatedly hit by Kyiv's forces since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"We [the Abkhaz regime and Russia] signed an agreement, and in the near future there will be a permanent base for the Russian navy in Ochamchire district," separatist leader Aslan Bzhania said in an interview with the Russian publication Izvestia on October 5.

"All this is aimed at raising the defense capability of both Russia and Abkhazia," he said.

Georgia and Russia feuded for years over Tbilisi's bid to join the European Union (EU) and NATO, with the spiraling confrontation culminating in a five-day war in 2008.

After the war, Moscow recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, where it then stationed permanent military bases.

The port near the town of Ochamchire was built in the 1930s, housing Soviet submarines during World War II. In the Soviet era, the port could receive Project 1164 cruisers, also known as the Slava class.

After the Soviet Union's collapse, the Ochamchire base played no role except to periodically support separatists in their fight against the Georgian military in 1992-1993.

In 2009, the Russian General Staff announced the Black Sea Fleet's return to Ochamchire, but only small vessels -- the Federal Security Service (FSB)'s coast guard boats -- returned.

Ochamchire is presently the home port for up to seven patrol boats of the Project Sobol and Project Mangust classes, according to available data.

In 2016, a Turkish company that was illegally exporting Tkvarcheli coal from the port's northern wharf deepened the seabed to 9 meters in and around the port. This depth allows the wharf to receive much larger vessels.

"Ochamchire Bay is suitable for accommodating warships, but first of all it is necessary for creating an early warning system, deploying air defense and coastal defense systems covering Novorossiysk," Alexander Artamonov, a Russian military observer, told Russian news agency Regnum in October.

"The Black Sea Fleet has a little over 60,000 in total ship tonnage. The Turkish navy has 80,000 in tonnage. We also have Lada- and Varshavyanka-class submarines in the Black Sea. So the base in Abkhazia will enable maximum use of the fleet's capabilities," said Artamonov.

The planned base is significant as a forward position against NATO, which no longer is represented only by Türkiye in the Black Sea, according to Russian naval Capt. 1st Class Vasily Dandykin, another military analyst.

"The presence of such a base will require additional deployment of anti-aircraft weapons, these same S-400 air defense systems, and Bal and Bastion coastal defense systems."

"That is, we will strengthen the line of defense on this flank as much as possible," Dandykin told the Russian publication.

Georgia 'reacts'

While Georgia's Foreign Ministry condemned the plans, officials of the pro-Russian ruling party Georgian Dream played down their ramifications.

"This is a gross violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia and is another provocative attempt to legitimize the illegal occupation," Georgia's Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The ruling party was relatively terse about the matter.

"I fully share the [Foreign Ministry] statement's concerns," said Irakli Kobakhidze, chairman of Georgian Dream.

Irakli Beraia, chairman of the Georgian parliament's Defense Committee, also gave little weight to the recent development.

"The 7th Military Base of Russia's Southern Military District is located in occupied Abkhazia, with both missile batteries and coastal defense systems. Expanding the infrastructure in Ochamchire may not significantly alter the situation," he said.

Infrastructure dozens of kilometers from Ochamchire, in the village of Pichori (Pichora) in Gali district, is already being prepared for military purposes, the Georgian Democracy Research Institute (DRI) noted in October.

The infrastructure likely includes electronic warfare and reconnaissance systems capable not only of jamming signals when drones appear but also controlling the electronic space of Georgia and Türkiye, if not further, said the DRI.

Moreover, the Georgian authorities' response is "insufficient...and therefore ineffective," it noted.

'Absolutely legitimate target'

For its part, NATO in October condemned "Russia's declared intention to build a naval base in Ochamchire, located in Georgian territory illegally occupied by Russia, threatening to further destabilise the Black Sea region."

But the most direct response came from Kyiv.

"The Russian navy is no longer capable of operating in the western Black Sea and is gradually fleeing from Crimea. And this is a historic achievement," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview in October.

"The Russian leader was recently forced to announce the creation of a new base for the Black Sea Fleet -- or rather, for what remains of it -- in the occupied territory of Georgia, as far away as possible from Ukrainian missiles and naval drones. But we will get them everywhere."

Former Georgian military chief of staff Vakhtang Kapanadze considers Ochamchire an "absolutely legitimate target" for the Ukrainian army.

"Even if a Russian ship leaves a remote base and launches missiles, Ukraine will have the right to respond."