By Galina Korol | 2024-01-18

VILNIUS/KYIV -- Ongoing plans to deploy a German brigade-sized military unit to Lithuania are the latest sign that Vilnius is preparing for provocation by Russia, say observers of the situation.

Germany announced in December that it would complete the deployment of the unit to Lithuania in 2027, adding that it had never before stationed so many troops abroad on a permanent basis.

"In just three years, at the end of 2027, the brigade will reach its full operational capacity," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said during a visit to Lithuania.

The German armed forces have "never permanently stationed that many soldiers abroad," Pistorius told reporters about the military unit that will number 4,800 people, including civilian employees.

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Germany "understood the new realities of security policy," he said.

"We are sending a clear signal to those who threaten peace and security in Europe."

Germany said earlier last year that it was ready to station a "robust brigade" in Lithuania on a permanent basis, as Berlin announced its commitment to bolster the security of NATO's eastern flank after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Germany later confirmed that five battalions, including a tank unit, would be stationed when Lithuania finishes building the infrastructure, including schools and rereational facilities for the families of the soldiers.

Pistorius and his Lithuanian counterpart, Arvydas Anusauskas, signed a roadmap for the deployment to ensure the process goes smoothly for the soldiers and their families both.

Anusauskas told reporters he expected an advance team from Germany to arrive in Lithuania in the spring that would oversee the brigade deployment.

"We are turning over to a page of even deeper strategic partnership. The German Brigade will significantly increase our defensive potential and enhance NATO deterrence and collective defense. The Roadmap signed today lays out in detail the track we and Germany will take to implement it," Baltnews quoted Anušauskas on December 18.

Threat of war

The deployment "shows that NATO is continuing to consistently execute the concept of enhanced forward stationing and is actually already implementing it," Taras Zhovtenko, a Ukrainian international security analyst at the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, told Kontur.

To grasp what these actions mean, it is useful to look back to 2014, when Russia began to occupy Crimea and several sections of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, Zhovtenko said.

"In 2014, NATO did an internal audit of its defense capability and the overall effectiveness of its collective security system. It came to light that ... NATO had numerous problems with how much of their GDP countries allocate to their own security and defense," he said.

"It also became clear that in the event of such a sudden attack -- which was still viewed as a hybrid attack in 2014 -- by Russia, for example, on the Baltic countries, NATO simply wouldn't have time to respond."

To respond appropriately to a threat, NATO then developed two key concepts, according to Zhovtenko.

The first was ultra-rapid reaction forces, which are supposed to quickly deploy to counter hybrid hostile units. The second concept was called enhanced forward stationing, which entails the stationing of additional weapons, munitions and troops from NATO's large member countries in countries that either border Russia or lie near it.

"NATO's entire eastern flank is divided up among these large NATO states, and each state has its own area of responsibility," Zhovtenko said.

"Part of the Baltic countries are in Germany's area of responsibility, so by that logic, based on this strategy of enhanced forward stationing, Germany must send in a minimal contingent of its soldiers who are permanently on this territory," he said.

Vilnius clearly understands the danger and has long been preparing for possible provocation by Russia, Stanislav Zhelikhovsky of Kyiv, a political scientist and international relations scholar, told Kontur.

The Suwałki Gap, an area around the border between Lithuania and Poland that represents the shortest distance between Russian ally Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, is of particular concern to Lithuania.

"If you block the Suwałki Gap, that will essentially cut the Baltic countries off from the other NATO member states, which could make it harder for the partner countries to help those countries, and they could become an easier target and prey for Russia," Zhelikhovsky said.

Last summer, Lithuanian border guard chief Rustamas Liubajevas assessed the likelihood of provocations on the border with Belarus as high, Zhelikhovsky noted.

Lithuanian shut two of the six checkpoints on the border with Belarus and increased the number of border guards, he added.

Protecting the public

Another important piece of Lithuania's defense preparations is bomb shelters, observers told Kontur.

Since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Lithuanian authorities have outfitted 2,500 shelters and informed the public of their locations, according to a December 18 Telegram posting by the Russian edition of the German publication Bild.

"Our main goal is to signal to Moscow that we are prepared to defend ourselves. So we need to prepare for the worst. One reason among others why Russia attacked Ukraine was that Russia assumed that the Ukrainians wouldn't defend their country," Žilvinas Tomkus, Lithuania's vice minister of defense, told Bild.

According to official statistics, the shelters can hold about 20% of Lithuania's population of 2.8 million, Bild reported. Under current law, all large new buildings are required to have bomb shelters.

"There's now also talk that a subway may be built in Vilnius, and it could have a dual purpose: to serve as a public transportation system for residents of the capital and also to function as a bomb shelter, like Ukraine's subway systems," Zhelikhovsky said.

However, it is too soon to say whether Lithuanians will need these bomb shelters. What Russia obtains from the bloody war it unleashed against Ukraine will determine the course of future events in Lithuania, say analysts.

"While Ukraine's armed forces ... are destroying Russia's military potential, there is a low probability that Russia will be able to divert a small portion of its forces to attack the NATO countries," Oleksandr Chupak, director of economic programs at Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Research, a private think tank, told Kontur.

Lithuania understands that to reduce the risk of threats from Russia, going forward it will need to be a partner to Ukraine and provide it whatever support it needs to bring it closer to victory, he said.