By Galina Korol | 2024-01-22

KYIV -- A new security agreement between the United Kingdom and Ukraine has ushered in a new phase of cooperation between the two countries and boosts Kyiv's efforts in its defense against Russia's invasion, observers say.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak signed the bilateral security agreement on January 12 at Mariinsky Palace in Kyiv.

The accord is set to remain in effect for 10 years or until Ukraine joins NATO.

"Today, we stand side by side as friends and allies. This is a signal to the world: Ukraine is not alone. Glory to Ukraine," Zelenskyy said, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).

The agreement formalizes existing security agreements between Ukraine and the United Kingdom and assures long-term support for Ukraine, Sunak said.

"Today we are going further, increasing our military aid, delivering thousands of cutting-edge drones and signing a historic new security agreement to provide Ukraine with the assurances it needs for the long term," he said, according to BBC News.

"For two years, Ukraine has fought with great courage to repel a brutal Russian invasion," he said. "They are still fighting, unfaltering in their determination to defend their country and defend the principles of freedom and democracy."

Sunak announced £2.5 billion ($3.2 billion) in new military aid earmarked for 2024 that is set to include a wide range of arms and ammunition that are in short supply in Ukraine -- such as artillery shells and drones.

The UK package will include "more air-defence equipment, more anti-tank weapons, more long-range missiles, thousands of rounds more of ammunition and artillery shells," Sunak added.

London will also train "thousands more Ukrainian servicemen," he said, and allocate £200 million ($254 million) to build thousands more drones -- "the single largest package of drones given to Ukraine by any nation."

Sunak urged other Western countries to double-down on their Ukraine support.

"If [Russian President Vladimir] Putin wins in Ukraine, he will not stop there, and our opponents around the world believe that we have neither the patience nor resources for long wars -- so waver now and we embolden not just Putin but his allies in North Korea, Iran and elsewhere," he said.

Under the agreement, Ukraine or the UK can request a consultation within 24 hours of a future Russian armed attack against Ukraine to determine measures needed to counter or deter the aggression.

It also codifies the UK's commitment to jointly leading alongside Norway the Maritime Security Capability Coalition, which is aimed at transforming Ukrainian Navy capabilities and countering Russia's aggression in the Black Sea and Azov Sea.

Boosting Ukraine's defense

This is the first time Ukraine has signed such a robust security and defense agreement, said Vadym Triukhan, a former Ukrainian diplomat and international relations specialist.

"If you look at what the agreement says, you see that it's very favorable for Ukraine because it addresses practically everything that Ukraine is interested in," he told Kontur.

"It also has an element of reciprocity. Ukraine is ... obligated to defend Britain and provide it with defense assistance in case of external aggression against Britain by a third party," he said. "That's definitely a positive aspect of this agreement."

An accord of this level will not only boost Ukraine's defense capabilities but also increase the country's chances for security until it joins NATO, said Oleksandr Kraiyev of Kyiv, an analyst at the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council.

"On top of that, this is the first international document that establishes Ukraine's 'recipe for victory'. In other words, commitment to Ukraine's internationally recognized borders, reparations from Russia, holding all of Russia's war criminals to account and Ukraine's admission to NATO," he told Kontur.

"These are four points that are finally set down on paper and therefore express the idea that 'we stand with Ukraine until the end,'" he said. "We now understand exactly to what extent they are willing to stay with us and support us."

The agreements are "a new phase in the cooperation between Ukraine and Great Britain and are important for both countries," said Andrey Buzarov, a Ukrainian international relations analyst and journalist.

Buzarov stressed that "this accord opens up a slew of opportunities for cooperation in many industries of the military-industrial complex, including maritime."

It also suggests that Ukraine will move toward producing its own weapons, added Triukhan, the former diplomat.

"According to the agreement, it is expected that the parties are working together not only on weapon transfers but also on matters of joint manufacturing in Ukraine," he said. "For us, this is a very important dimension."

Who will be next?

While Russian propagandists are spreading claims that the European Union and the rest of the world are losing interest in supporting Ukraine, the actions and statements by Ukraine's allies have suggested otherwise.

The agreement between Ukraine and Britain sends a signal to other countries, said Buzarov.

"I see this as the start of serious diplomatic steps to unite countries that want to support us regardless of what things are like here in May, November or next year," he said.

Japan, Canada and France have all previously voiced intentions to sign similar agreements with Ukraine, but have not yet formalized them.

French President Emmanuel Macron on January 16 announced plans to sign a bilateral agreement with Ukraine. He is set to visit Kyiv in February to definitively hammer out the details of the accord, the German publication Deutsche Welle reported January 17.

"Before Macron made his announcement, it looked like Canada was most interested in signing an agreement like this one," Triukhan said.

"The Canadian ambassador said that [Canada] already had sent an agreement and was hoping to finalize and sign it within a few weeks," he said.