By Galina Korol | 2024-02-19

KYIV -- Russia's six-year plan to economically integrate occupied Ukrainian territory is unlikely to become reality, say analysts.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that "Russia plans for occupied areas of Ukraine to be on par with Russia in unspecified 'key areas' by 2030," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an assessment dated February 1.

Putin's remarks, made January 31 during a meeting about the socio-economic development of the occupied territories, indicates that the Kremlin is implementing long-term plans and does not intend to make any territorial concessions, according to the ISW assessment.

"Putin urged Russian banks to not fear Western sanctions and to increase their work in occupied areas and noted that Russian federal subjects have established patronage networks with occupied Ukrainian regions," the assessment said.

The Kremlin has already initiated a comprehensive plan involving several measures related to specific targets, including the economy, health care, education, culture and sports, according to pro-Russian Telegram channels.

Some 1.8 trillion RUB ($19.5 billion) has reportedly been allocated to achieve these goals.

"This is the occupier's conscious policy, which consists of legalizing the occupation and making it as irreversible as possible. That's why they are introducing a bunch of these programs to integrate things," Kostyantyn Batozsky, a Ukrainian political scientist and director of the Azov Development Agency, told Kontur.

However, Russian officials have completely forgotten a major factor, according to Batozsky.

"These territories [i.e., those currently occupied by Russia] are economically and historically tied to Ukraine," he said.

"For example, the Donetsk metallurgical complex simply cannot exist without raw materials from Dnepropetrovsk province, because the nearest [Russian] ore deposits are near Belgorod, and there is no way to transport them."

"The same is true for other industries. For example, large energy production facilities also remain in Ukraine," said Batozsky.

The occupation authorities' deadlines for integration deserve attention because completing this process in six years, which they claim to want, is simply unrealistic, he said.

"All these statements are nothing more than propaganda. All this must be backed by years of massive work and a complete reorientation of all industries, and that is a decade-long task," he said.

Crimea and occupation

Crimea, which has been occupied for 10 years now, is an excellent example of what Russian integration might look like in reality.

"At first, people received some pensions or wages that were a little more than what they received in Ukraine. Then they said, 'We'll build a bridge and start living,'" Crimean resident Alexey Yefremov, founder of Free Crimea, an NGO, told Kontur.

"Then it was 'we'll build a railway connection with the Krasnodar Territory, prices will decrease, logistics will improve.' And now it's 'we'll start living and there will be 'mountains of gold when we defeat fascism and Nazism,'" Yefremov said.

However, the quality of life in Crimea has in fact decreased significantly during the occupation, he said.

Food quality has dropped "and there is no money, and no purchasing power either. People are spending only on essentials," Yefremov said.

When it comes to tourism, the main source of income on the peninsula, the situation deteriorates each year as the industry becomes less international and more domestic, according to Yefremov.

"Air traffic has stopped, and accordingly, very few people, say, from Siberia, want to spend several days on a train and several days going back in order to relax in Crimea for a couple of days."

"Additionally, all the infrastructure is aging. There are problems with water. Now the coastline has been destroyed in a storm, and none of it is being repaired. And the beaches are covered in trenches, and there are constant patrols," he said.

Given all this, the atmosphere that Crimeans live in now does not foster optimism, Yefremov said.

"Civilians are afraid that they will be drafted ... and even those who leave, whom I meet in Ukraine or abroad, they still continue to live in fear, because now they no longer worry about themselves but about their relatives and friends who remain in Crimea."

Russia in crisis

The standard of living and income per capita of most of Russia's regions "correspond not to any European standards but to the standards of equatorial Africa," Igor Eidman, a Russian sociologist and commentator, told Kontur.

"In the conditions of the occupied territories, where terror and war are on par with Mali and Sudan ... that's the future they can provide for these regions."

Russia is now being put on a war footing, which is why military spending is growing at an insane rate and eating up most of the budget, according to Eidman.

At the same time, the country has been in a permanent crisis for a long time. Every day the situation deteriorates, and inhabitants are worse and worse off, he said.

"Budget revenues have ... substantially fallen from sanctions, especially in the oil and gas sector. Russia has lost the gas market in Europe, and it is entirely unclear where it is going to get this money for whatever reconstruction [it has in mind]. I think they don't have money and won't have it," said Eidman.

There is no chance of integrating the seized Ukrainian territories into Russia not only for lack of money but also for lack of time, he said.

"The bullet just whistled past Putin's temple at that time, and he was just lucky," Eidman said of Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion in the summer. "And I think next time he won't be so lucky ... because Putin is entirely focused on victory, on success, and the lack of victory or success greatly undermines his authority, primarily among the ruling elite."