By Olha Chepil | 2024-08-26

KYIV -- Nuclear safety at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is deteriorating after a drone strike and fire near the plant, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The ZNPP, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and the sixth largest in the world, has been occupied by Russia for more than two years.

The Kremlin has turned the plant into a military base, using it to store vehicles and deploy troops.

But most important, observers say, Russia treats the ZNPP as a button for unleashing nuclear terrorism.

"Nuclear extortion has been an integral part of their tactics since the beginning of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war," said Petro Oleshchuk, a political scientist and analyst at the United Ukraine think tank. "They do this in an attempt to have a psychological influence on Ukrainians and Ukraine's Western partners."

'Hybrid nuclear extortion'

After Ukrainian forces advanced into Kursk province, Russia, Russian activity at the ZNPP increased, said Oleshchuk.

"Ukrainian troops' incursion into Kursk province is a big slap in the face for Russians. And they need to respond somehow," he told Kontur. "But they can't endlessly threaten a nuclear strike, so now they're trying to use hybrid nuclear extortion."

The recent fire at the ZNPP is an example of this extortion, Oleshchuk said.

Footage of thick black smoke rising from one of the plant's two cooling towers, which are frequently used to cool water, emerged online August 11.

The IAEA confirmed the fire, which appeared after a series of explosions. According to the IAEA, no radiation has leaked, but photos of the burning ZNPP aroused global alarm.

Russia blamed Ukraine for the fire, alleging that a drone strike caused it.

"The Russians are simultaneously trying to intimidate and presenting the incident as if Ukraine wants to damage its own power plant," said Oleshchuk. "This is complete absurdity, of course, but they are doing this in an attempt to extortion and absolve themselves of responsibility."

The IAEA investigators present at the ZNPP were unable to establish the cause of the fire, according to an IAEA statement released August 12.

The source was most likely situated inside the cooling tower, they said, but they did not find tires (one alleged fuel for the fire) or the remains of a military drone during the inspection.

A deliberate provocation

The ZNPP fire was an intentional provocative act by Russia, said Olga Kosharna, a nuclear energy and safety analyst as well as the co-founder of the Ukrainian Anti-Crisis Nuclear Center of Expertise.

"My sources informed me that a mobile diesel generator was based inside the cooling tower to power electronic warfare systems that 'snuff out' Ukrainian drones," she told Kontur. "Accordingly, there are fuel reserves for this generator. And that is where the fire broke out."

The cooling tower had not been modernized, she said, and the thick black smoke could have come from shingles or asbestos sheets.

"The Russians are once again using this powerful image, this thick smoke, hoping to influence the minds of European and Western politicians... This was calculated to get our Western partners to tell us to stop the military operation in Kursk province," said Kosharna.

After the fire, ZNPP workers warned the IAEA about the potential need to dismantle the burning cooling tower, but it remains unknown who would dismantle the tower and how.

Some workers left for Kyiv-controlled territory after Russia seized the power plant. They were replaced by Rosatom employees from Russia, but observers say that an existing staff shortage creates a big risk.

"The risks are that there are no qualified staff... Only 22 licensed Ukrainian personnel remain for the six power units," Kosharna said, adding that the plant has quality control standards that must be respected.

"Regardless of whether a unit is supplying power or whether a unit is not operating, there must be a certain number of licensed personnel," she said. "And the number there is entirely inadequate."

'Total disregard'

Russian forces are digging trenches around the ZNPP's cooling pond. Russian troops have built more than 1,000 meters of trenches, McKenzie Intelligence Services found in a study commissioned by Greenpeace in July.

Such construction could foreshadow a new pumping station and efforts to restart the ZNPP, analysts say. In terms of nuclear safety, however, any such construction at a nuclear power plant is dangerous.

"They're not just digging trenches. They'v laid antipersonnel mines around the plant's perimeter. And they are digging in there," said Vladimir Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center.

"We don't know their plans or what they want there. But we know that the nuclear power plant is not an important site for them in terms of energy supply."

"The IAEA adopted three resolutions demanding the withdrawal of Russian forces from the plant and its transfer to the full control of Ukraine," he told Kontur. "But Russia is ignoring this. Even a month ago, the [United Nations] General Assembly adopted a resolution on this. Total disregard."

Safety at the ZNPP is deteriorating, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned following a drone strike near the plant.

"I remain extremely concerned and reiterate my call for maximum restraint from all sides," he said in a statement.

The Russian presence at the ZNPP represents a fundamental threat to the safety of Ukraine, all of Europe and the world, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

"Russia is blackmailing the world with the threat of a disaster at the ZNPP, using the plant as a staging ground for strikes on Nikopol and other nearby communities, storing military vehicles and ammunition at the ZNPP," he wrote on Facebook.

Only the plant's return to Ukrainian control would mean full compliance with all safety standards, he said.