By Olha Hembik | 2024-10-28

WARSAW -- Fact-checkers in Poland recently reviewed 4,200 posts on X to analyze the narratives that Russian propaganda is using to influence Polish minds.

All of the analyzed posts came from Polish-language pro-Russian accounts starting in June. Oko.press published a study of them in July.

Twenty-one percent of the posts were about migration, the study found.

Common tropes included the situation at the Polish-Belarusian border and the supposed undesirability of darker-skinned newcomers (most often Africans) and those of a different faith (most often Muslims).

"The deepening of social divisions rooted in fear of migrants is part of the information war that the Kremlin is waging on a large scale not only in Poland but throughout Western Europe," according to the study.

More than 15% of the X posts concerned the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

One major narrative says that Ukrainian victory is impossible, with trolls making unbacked assertions about heavy Ukrainian casualties and the weakness of international support for Kyiv.

They describe Russian President Vladimir Putin as a strong leader and a foe of Nazism in Europe.

Eleven percent of the posts denounced Ukrainian refugees and the Ukrainian people in general, portraying them as criminals, socially maladjusted and mentally ill.

Approximately the same number of posts depict NATO, the United States and President Joe Biden in a negative light.

Pushing the Kremlin narrative

Right-wing Polish politicians, commentators and activists published and shared pro-Russian posts more often than any other Polish group, the study found.

Mateusz Piskorski, the former leader of the pro-Russian party Zmiana, wrote that negotiating with Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka would be necessary to resolve the migration crisis on the border with Belarus.

Belarus and Russia have encouraged poor-country migrants to try to swarm into Poland.

Piskorski was jailed three years awaiting trial for spying for Russia before Poland released him on bail in 2019. Though he is out on bail, his trial continues behind closed doors.

Krystian Jachacy, host of YouTube channel Uncensored, posted on X about the purported need for dialogue with Lukashenka. The researchers picked up Suwerenna Polska party lawmaker Dariusz Matecki's statement on X about the ongoing "invasion" by migrants of Poland.

National Movement activist Rafal Mekler's post denouncing activists who aided migrants on the Polish-Belarusian border was also frequently retweeted.

"I believe that the border pimps are bringing in immigrants en masse, because they [the activists] live off grants, and secondly, there is a deeper reason -- hatred of Poland ... which is based on the [Catholic] church and family," wrote Mekler.

Janusz Korwin-Mikke, former leader of the right-wing party Confederation, called the war in Ukraine a provocation by NATO.

"We have a problem with people who infect others with pro-Russian thinking and spread slogans that promote the Russian government's interests. This is usually the voicing of anti-European Union [EU], anti-NATO and anti-Ukrainian narratives. These people think that they face no threat here," Anna Mierzyńska, the study's author, told Press.pl in January.

The tweets from anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian accounts repeated messages supporting the far right and spread false claims.

Different forms of propaganda

"Russian propaganda on social networks takes many different forms. In one instance, it's about refugees. Elsewhere, it's a game to polarize society over religion, abortion and LGBT issues. Provocateurs present every extreme position. There is much fake news," Dominik Gąsiorowski, a specialist on countering Russian propaganda, told Kontur.

"There are rather sophisticated accounts on Twitter [X]. They may mix true and false information," he said.

According to him, the biggest waves of disinformation happen during moments of political crisis and in the run-up to elections in Poland or the EU.

In recent years, Poland has been a major target of Russian propaganda in Europe because of its uncompromising position on the Russian-Ukrainian war and aid to Ukraine.

"With the outbreak of war, Poland responded unambiguously and resolutely, sending its own weapons to Ukraine and enabling the transit of weapons [via Poland to Ukraine]. Poland has a firm position on Ukraine joining the EU, a firm position on using long-range weapons to strike Russian territory," said Jerzy Rejt, an ethnic Ukrainian activist in Poland, as well as the first chairman of the Associations of Ukrainians in Poland.

"Russia is trying to plant its spies in Poland and spread disinformation in order to analyze the situation and understand what to do. That's why Poland will always be targeted by people working for Russia," he told Kontur.

Changing opinions

The unceasing Russian propaganda spread on X and elsewhere might be undermining Polish support of Ukraine.

After two and a half years of war, an increasing number of Poles say that the situation at the front is not critical and therefore military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine is no longer necessary, the Batory Foundation said in a study published in August.

In June, 39% of respondents were against such aid, the highest percentage since the full-scale Russian invasion. Fifty-seven percent of respondents favored receiving Ukrainian refugees.

In March 2022, a record number of respondents, 94%, expressed support for accepting refugees.

"Clearly, experienced manipulators will say that 'the government cares about our neighbor but not about our own country' in relation to any real news containing even the slightest mention of support for Ukrainians or Ukraine," said Oleksandr Pestrykov, an analyst with Ukrainian House, a Warsaw-based organization.

"So, based on my observations, the main problem is not fake news but manipulative language. Fortunately, there are also accounts on X that are systematically combating all this," he told Kontur.

The Oko.press study advises approaching social media posts critically, especially if the message is not based on facts but evokes strong emotions.