By Olha Hembik | 2024-09-09

WARSAW -- A Russian narrative about Ukrainian refugees burdening Poland is circulating throughout the NATO and European Union (EU) member state.

This narrative is spread on social networks by bots, and pro-Kremlin politicians funded by Russia often trumpet it. They become especially active whenever elections near.

To court votes, certain politicians accuse refugees of responsibility for any economic downturn, whether it is real or anticipated.

Such statements have emerged from the coalition of ultra-right political parties known as Confederation, whose leaders orchestrate the blocking of checkpoints on the Polish-Ukrainian border and denounce the so-called Ukrainization of Poland.

The leaders of this coalition have called on more than one occasion for cutting off social assistance to Ukrainian refugees.

'Scapegoats'

The Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights in Poland studied hate speech about Ukrainian refugees on Polish social networks. The researchers found that the majority of the posts on X (formerly Twitter) expressing hostility towards Ukrainians fit into two threads.

The historic thread centers on difficult Polish-Ukrainian relations during World War II and afterward. At the time, Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union.

The economic thread plays on Poles' fears of a declining quality of life.

"Sociological research shows that economically motivated poor relations may be linked to economic and political crises in Poland, and to diminishing faith in the effectiveness of the state," said Ada Tymińska, one of the authors of "Here They Come and Take It All Away: Anti-Ukrainian Hate Speech on Polish Twitter."

"That has led to a search for scapegoats, who this time are the war refugees," she told Kontur.

If politicians and public figures do not start to respond to Polish anxiety, it will remain a political tool of the rightists, said Tymińska.

"Online there are quite a few statements we can link to Russian propaganda, trolls and bots. One of them is that the Ukrainians are feeding off Polish taxpayers."

Negative sentiment will build in direct proportion to the Poles' war fatigue, she said.

Assistance is paid back

As of mid-June, Poland was hosting more than 957,000 Ukrainian refugees, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates.

They may receive aid at first, but few stay on it for long.

For example, Warsaw allocated 15 billion PLN (€3.5 billion) in state support for the refugees in 2022, and 5 billion PLN (€1.2 billion) in 2023, according to "Analysis of the Impact of Refugees from Ukraine on the Economy of Poland," a study issued by the Deloitte consultancy in March for the UN.

For more than two years, the government funded a program called 40+, which paid 40 PLN (€9) per day to households sheltering and feeding Ukrainian refugees.

Each Ukrainian benefited from that subsidy for four months.

The government cancelled 40+ on July 1. On the same day, it stopped issuing a one-time 300-PLN (€70) payment to each Ukrainian refugee.

Ukrainians with children still receive a monthly benefit per child, but every Polish family does as well.

Ukrainians in Poland shift rapidly to supporting themselves, said Piotr Kulpa, a former Polish deputy labor minister who is now the director of the School of Ministers at the Serhiy Nyzhnyy Kyiv School of Public Administration.

"Ukrainian refugees in Poland have demonstrated that they're self-sufficient and don't need additional cash injections or special programs created for them," he said.

"Poland is a country of opportunities for those who want to work. And the Ukrainians are capable of starting different kinds of businesses in health care, services and the restaurant industry," Kulpa told Kontur. "Those are entire systems that also serve Poles."

Only 7% of Ukrainian refugees live off state benefits in Poland, according to Deloitte's study.

More than 80% have found permanent or temporary jobs or are working remotely at jobs based in Ukraine. Another 7% depend on remittances from friends and relatives, while 5% depend on pension or other benefit payments from the Ukrainian government.

Ukrainian refugees contribute to local economy

All that economic activity is boosting Poland's economic outlook.

Refugees from the Russian invasion added 0.7%–1.1% to Polish GDP last year, Deloitte calculated.

In the long term, after the economy adjusts, this figure will increase to 0.9%–1.35%, it said.

Thus amount Warsaw spent to aid Ukrainian refugees in 2022-2023 has already been offset by the taxes they paid: 12.3–15.2 billion PLN (€2.9–€3.6 billion) in 2022 and 18.2–22.5 billion PLN (€4.3–€5.3 billion) in 2023, according to Deloitte.

"Within weeks of arriving in Poland, Ukrainian refugees started looking for jobs, and then switched jobs within a year," Marcin Kołodziejczyk, international recruitment director for the migration platform EWL, told Kontur.

The refugees rapidly switched from taking any job available to seeking professional growth, he added.

"This [work ethic] has had a major effect on the Polish economy," he said.

The Ukrainians spend their earnings in Poland. In the first quarter of this year, they spent 1.41 billion PLN (€330 million), which is on par with their spending last year, according to Poland's Personnel Service website.

Even though Poland could see a GDP boost of up to 2.3% by 2026 -- according to the National Bank of Ukraine -- if the Ukrainians stay, it has no plans to encourage them to settle permanently.

"The Ukrainian refugees in Poland and the EU countries have temporary protection status," Kulpa said. "When that status expires, at the request of the Ukrainian government, Warsaw will help them return home."