By Olha Chepil | 2024-12-12

KYIV -- As it prepares for the New Year, the Moldovan government is not ruling out the most difficult scenarios of electricity and natural gas shortages.

Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean wants to ask parliament to declare a state of emergency in the sector, which should help stabilize the situation, analysts say.

"We will ask parliament to declare a state of emergency in the energy sector starting December 16 to prepare for any scenario, especially given that cold has been used as a weapon against people across the region for three years," Recean said on Facebook December 5, referring to Russian energy giant Gazprom's use of natural gas prices and delivery interruptions to bully Europeans in wintertime.

In response to a request by Recean, President Maia Sandu on December 5 fired Energy Minister Victor Parlicov for letting the national energy system fall into its present state.

Parlicov took the blame for failing to stockpile enough gas for the winter. Moldova is buying emergency gas from Europe at high prices and in December had to raise gas rates for households and businesses, RBC Ukraine reported.

Moldova is paying the price for adopting a pro-European course and distancing itself from the Kremlin, say analysts.

"This was largely due to Sandu's rise to power [in 2020]," Serhiy Gerasymchuk, director of the Regional Initiatives and Neighborhood Program at the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council, told Kontur. "They [the Sandu administration] took a decisive pro-European course."

Moldova, after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, tried to break away from dependence on Russian gas but has not succeeded completely.

In late 2022, the Chisinau-controlled part of Moldova stopped importing Russian gas. However, a large power plant in breakaway Transnistria still uses Russian gas.

That plant accounts for about 70% of Moldova's electricity.

'Turn off the switch in Transnistria'

The threat of collapse now exists in Transnistria, since it depends on that gas to function.

"The Transnistrian government relies on the revenue from sales of this gas for the region's budget, and business models throughout Transnistria are predicated on below-market prices on gas," the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a September report.

Russia, which professes support for Transnistria and has stationed about 1,000 troops there since 1992, is now showing its indifference to its residents, betraying even those who bought the Kremlin's claims to stand by the region, analysts say.

The current gas transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia expires on December 31, and Ukraine has said it will not renew it.

Transnistria receives its Russian gas via Ukraine, an arrangement that has continued even during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

"Now Moscow will simply spit on its 'compatriots' and turn off the switch in order to create chaos, since this crisis will automatically be destabilizing. And shutting off natural gas supplies to the left bank of the Dniester [Transnistria], where about 300,000 people live, could result in a humanitarian catastrophe," Victor Ciobanu, a political commentator from Chisinau, told Kontur.

Even if Ukraine stops the transit of gas, the Russian company Gazprom is required to fulfill the terms of the five-year gas supply agreement concluded in 2021 between the Moldovan government and Gazprom, said Ciobanu.

But Moscow values destabilizing Moldova more than maintaining the standard of living in Transnistria, said Ciobanu.

"They are obliged to deliver somehow. In other words, this is Gazprom's problem. They could pump this gas from the other side through TurkStream [an alternate pipeline] to Bulgaria and Romania. But I'm convinced they'll just spit on and abandon the people they call their own," said Ciobanu.

That said, he expects Moldova to face another problem.

The large Transnistria power plant that uses Russian gas sells electricity cheaply to the rest of Moldova.

Without Russian gas, it will go dark eventually, meaning blackouts throughout Moldova.

"If there is no gas in Transnistria from January 1, the power plant will be able to operate on reserve fuel for another month or month and a half. And after that, well, basically, problems will begin for the right bank [Chisinau-controlled Moldova] ... Because they won't have power any longer," said Ciobanu.

The Kremlin has repeatedly asked Chisinau to "pressure" Kyiv to continue gas transit, but according to Moldova watchers, officials in Chisinau are not even considering this option because they sympathize with Ukraine.

Russian extortion by gas

The Kremlin is using Gazprom's extortion to undermine the Moldovan government, aiming to benefit pro-Russian parties by weakening the pro-government, pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity before next year's parliamentary elections, say analysts.

"Moscow is seeking to bring Moldova back into its orbit of influence by creating energy dependence," said Ihor Petrenko, founder and director of United Ukraine, a think tank in Kyiv.

The Kremlin's goal is to play the anti-European card on the eve of the parliamentary elections -- expected to be held before July 11 -- and destabilize Moldova by showing European partners to be incapable of preventing an almost inevitable crisis, he said.

"By using gas supplies as a weapon, Russia is not only raising prices or reducing supplies but also creating economic and political instability in the country," Petrenko told Kontur. "This is a classic strategy that the Kremlin employs not only in Moldova but toward other post-Soviet countries that have chosen the path of integration with the EU [European Union]."

Even before the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Gazprom frequently manipulated prices or deliveries of gas in winter to communicate displeasure with Georgia, Ukraine and even pro-Moscow Belarus.

'Energy diversification is possible'

Moldova has already made significant steps towards energy independence from the Kremlin. The 2022 decision by Moldova, except for Transnistria, to stop buying gas from Gazprom saved money, it turned out.

"We switched to European gas. And according to the results of 2023, this 'expensive' European gas produced savings of approximately €60 million," said Ciobanu. "This is a huge amount of money for Moldova. In other words, we have no problems with this gas."

In addition, the work to integrate power grids with Romania continues. Construction of a high-voltage power transmission line is expected to be finished by 2025, which will significantly strengthen Moldovan energy security.

"The completion of the Iasi-Ungheni-Chisinau gas pipeline in 2021 was a strategic breakthrough, as it allowed Moldova to diversify its gas sources by connecting to Romanian suppliers," said Petrenko.

The construction of power lines and pipelines not only creates technical infrastructure but signals Moldova's determination to strengthen its ties with the EU and escape Russia's influence, observers say.

"Moldova is demonstrating that, despite all the difficulties, energy diversification is possible even for small countries that have historically been dependent on Russia," Petrenko said.

"This sets an example for other states in the region that are striving for energy independence and integration into the European community."