By Galina Korol | 2024-12-18

KYIV -- The Ukrainian city of Kherson continues to be the target of daily attacks by the Russian army, and local officials are warning of a possible prelude to another Russian offensive against the city.

The Russian army has deployed some of its "best drone units" to the left bank of Kherson province, Oleksandr Prokudin, director of the Kherson Provincial Military Administration, told the Financial Times (FT) in a story published December 3.

The Russian army is launching "advanced" drones from the left bank, said Prokudin.

In doing so, it is "refining combat techniques and training new operators for their intensifying invasion," he said.

Russian forces have "assembled 300 boats to cross the river," he told the FT.

"Regarding those 300 boats they've allegedly assembled there, a few weeks ago the Russian occupation administration confiscated watercraft from the local population along the entire left bank of the Dnipro," Oleg Zhdanov, a Soviet and Ukrainian veteran, military analyst and reservist colonel for the Ukrainian general staff, told Kontur.

The National Resistance Center also previously reported this information.

"This time, the confiscation was so ruthless that they even seized inflatable boats if they found any," Zhdanov said.

"This most likely demonstrates that right now Russian industry is incapable of providing Russian troops with watercraft," he said. "And to conduct operations in the Dnipro delta and on the islands, [the Russians] are using boats seized from our citizens."

Suicide mission

Any attempts to cross the Dnipro, especially in the winter, will be tantamount to suicide, said Zhdanov.

"The right bank is higher than the left bank, which means there's a current there... It's rather wide and fast," he said.

"If a fighter falls into the water, with the current air temperature, hypothermia ... will set in after four minutes," he added.

Moreover, "you need a very large force to cross the Dnipro," Zhdanov said. "And it's impossible not to notice the force of 100,000 to 150,000 minimum that Russia would assemble [to seize Kherson], plus the pontoons it would need to conduct the crossing."

The majority of watercraft assembled by Russia would be sunk if it tried this maritime invasion, he predicted.

"They'll be under fire," Alexander Kovalenko of Odesa, a correspondent for the website InfoResist, told Kontur. "This is a one-way trip."

Already, Russian soldiers have been drowning in the Dnipro river delta.

Recently two Russian marines drowned trying to land on Belogrudy island, the Atesh guerrilla movement wrote December 5 on Telegram.

"Incidents like these aren't unusual in the Russian forces. The cause is poor training or simply no training at all, and the difficult local conditions that the soldiers are incapable of handling," Atesh wrote.

'Raising the stakes'

One reason why Russian sabotage groups have stepped up activity is the local weather, analysts told Kontur.

Seasonal fog "allows small [Russian] units to advance less visibly, and on the other, it reduces our ability to use FPV [first-person view] and reconnaissance drones," he said.

In addition, Russia may need an attack on Kherson to boost the perception of Russian might.

The Kremlin plans to use this "threat" as a bargaining chip with the United States, RBC-Ukraine reported December 6, citing a Telegram post by Andriy Kovalenko, director of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation.

"Russia is obviously rehearsing on its training grounds to cross the Dnipro and is preparing for stepped-up action in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces," Kovalenko said. "The Russians are trying to 'bargain' with this threat, just as they did with the Oreshnik missile, in their strategy of raising the stakes."

Fear of another occupation

Throughout the war Russia is waging in Ukraine, Kherson has been a strategic prize for the Russian army. Its location on the right bank of the Dnipro makes it a key spot for dictating who can use or cross the river.

Seizing the city could allow Russian troops to establish complete control over key transport arteries and to advance deep into southern Ukraine. These are just a few reasons for Russia to attempt retaking Kherson city.

Kherson was the only provincial capital that fell to Russia, back in March 2022.

After eight months of combat and a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army in November 2022, Ukraine recaptured the city and drove the Russian troops back to the left bank of the Dnipro.

Kherson residents vividly remember the occupation, Ivan Antipenko of Kherson, a reporter for Suspilne Novini, told Kontur.

"Most of all, they're afraid of another occupation," he said.

However, amid reports of another possible offensive, residents are not leaving the city en masse.

"I can't say there's an exodus specifically because of this threat," Antipenko said. "If people are targeted directly and their homes are destroyed... [they] are of course thinking about what to do and maybe going somewhere."

Ukrainian forces are now doing everything they can to prevent the Russian troops from themselves establishing on the Dnipro islands, Serhiy Bratchuk, a Ukrainian military spokesperson, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL)'s Novyny Pryazovya project in an article posted December 5.

"We're firing back," Bratchuk said. "We're now carrying out the appropriate combat missions ... particularly on the left bank of Kherson province."

"[We're] striking the enemy, their personnel and their associated facilities and vehicles," he added. "So for now a large Russian offensive isn't an issue."