By Olha Hembik | 2025-01-22

WARSAW -- Poland has high hopes as it takes the rotating Council of the European Union (CEU) presidency for the second time, although the challenges it faces are completely different this time around, observers say.

The CEU, along with the European Parliament, is the main decision-making body of the EU, not to be confused with the European Council, which convenes quarterly to set the broad direction of EU policy.

Poland's six-month CEU tenure began January 1. It previously served from July to December 2011.

"This presidency will be groundbreaking in many ways," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in a statement.

"It begins during a challenging time marked by conflicts, and our task will be to convince all 27 EU member states that Europe can continue to be the safest, most stable place on Earth. Security will be our top priority during the upcoming six months. "

Tusk expressed hope that Poland will lead efforts that result in peace for Ukraine and all of Europe.

"We are going to launch many important initiatives in the first half of 2025. So I'm grateful to have Poland's determination and European spirit by our side," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on X on January 1.

The commission is the EU's main executive body.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski previously said Poland would preside over an "extraordinarily complex international situation," Polska Agencja Prasowa reported December 13.

New challenges include European security issues, the Russian-Ukrainian war , increased geopolitical tensions and the crisis in the Middle East.

Security will be a priority, Sikorski said, expressing the intention "to strengthen [EU] sanctions against the aggressors -- Russia and Belarus," and to counter any efforts to circumvent the sanctions.

Stronger sanctions

Under Polish leadership, EU members are expected to intensify discussions of new sanctions on Russia.

"It's important for Poland to demonstrate maximum leadership in the fight against Russian aggression and other emerging challenges," said international relations scholar Stanislav Zhelikhovsky.

"The countries of the [EU] are actively working to eliminate dependence on Russian blue fuel [natural gas]," he told Kontur, noting that "Poland has done a lot in this area."

"We can say that Warsaw now has other sources of supply -- the United States, Norway, other areas in Europe," Zhelikhovsky said.

Warsaw hopes to shed light on how much Russian fuel is still exported to the EU, Politico reported December 27.

The political agenda includes fighting the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the Kremlin's principal source of revenue, and of Russian nuclear technology.

As Poland begins its second CEU presidency, “we count on Polish leadership, principled stance, and decisiveness,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha wrote on X January 1.

"We expect new initiatives to strengthen military support for Ukraine and sanctions pressure on the aggressor," he said.

Restricting imports

The European Commission's REPowerEU Plan aims to phase out the EU's dependence on Russian energy by 2027.

Russia has influenced the strategy already by selectively cutting supplies to certain EU member states, the Helsinki-based Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) noted in November.

"The strategy adopted by the [EU] after the full-scale invasion is working. But not for LNG," Piotr Kulpa, a former Polish minister of labor and social policy, told Kontur.

"This is the only type of fuel for which imports from Russia are growing rather than being restricted," Kulpa said.

"Russian natural gas imports to the EU surged by 27% year-on-year in the first half of 2024," CREA said in November, while natural gas imports from Russia accounted for about 10% of the EU's annual consumption in 2023.

Strengthening transatlantic ties

The new Polish strategy to combat LNG imports from Russia "seems to be a strong point in the strategy of the entire EU," Kulpa said, with its success partly stemming from the macroeconomics of switching to US resources, including gas.

After 2022, Europe began buying US LNG and is now buying about 40% of its imported gas from the United States, Voice of America reported December 28.

The Polish strategy is consistent with limiting Russian President Vladimir Putin's access to revenue for the war he is waging against Ukraine and essentially all of Central Europe, said Kulpa.

"There's also a political aspect -- this is the strengthening of transatlantic ties , strong cement for making relations stronger between Europe and the United States," he said.

Many Poles support stronger sanctions against Russia, political watchers say.

"Poles have a very negative attitude towards the Russian occupiers," said Mikhailo Strelnikov, who launched an initiative to build a Museum of Victory over Despotism in Poland.

"Sanctions are slow but effective," he told Kontur. "This cumulative effect will only increase. To intensify them, Poland will continue to maintain very close ties with the United States."

If Poland succeeds, "it will be a major historic success in separating Europe from Russian energy resources and all the bad things that come with them: the financing of corruption, terrorism and hybrid warfare," Kulpa said.

"Where there are no Russian interests, there will be no Russian threats."