By Sultan Musayev | 2025-02-19

ALMATY -- Russia's influence in Azerbaijan is quickly slipping away, observers say.

The recent closure of the Russian House cultural center in Baku is the latest example of Azerbaijan distancing itself from the Kremlin.

The Russian House is the Azerbaijani headquarters of Rossotrudnichestvo -- Russia's cultural exchange agency known to propagandize for Moscow.

Baku made the decision amid growing tensions between the two countries in the wake of the deadly Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 crash in Kazakhstan on December 25.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev accuses Russian air defense of accidentally shooting down the plane.

The Azerbaijani authorities notified Russia of the shutdown earlier this month, Report.az reported February 6, citing knowledgeable sources.

Baku is continuing a consistent policy to defend its national interests and demonstrating that it will not tolerate outside interference, the outlet wrote.

"Our country has become a donor itself and does not need help from outside," sources told Report.az.

Promoting the Kremlin's agenda

Baku ordered Russian House to vacate its premises within six weeks.

Moscow has scrambled to adjust.

Rossotrudnichestvo is not pursuing political goals or interfering in Azerbaijan's domestic affairs, Yevgeny Primakov, director of the agency, claimed February 6.

The incident is a "disagreement" that will be resolved, Dmitry Peskov, Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman, said at a February 7 news conference.

But on February 11, Russian media reported that workers had begun removing signs from the Russian House building in Baku.

As all of this is happening, unknown individuals in Azerbaijan have started offering to pay residents to attend demonstrations supporting the shuttered Russian House.

Rossotrudnichestvo is not making those offers to hire demonstrators, Primakov has said.

There are Russian Houses in 80 countries, but Ukraine and the European Union have imposed sanctions on Rossotrudnichestvo for propagandizing the Kremlin's agenda.

Disillusioned with Moscow

"Closing Russian House is just the first step in the process of distancing Baku from Moscow," Mars Abayev, a political correspondent for the Bishkek news site Orbita.kg, told Kontur.

"We're seeing that another post-Soviet republic has grown disillusioned with the legacy of the former Soviet empire."

Azerbaijan is preparing evidence to submit to an international court about Russia, which could further corrode Baku-Moscow relations, he added.

Baku is clearly signaling to Moscow that any actions endangering its security will have consequences, said Abayev.

"Unlike many other post-Soviet countries, Azerbaijan doesn't depend on Russian subsidies, and it has the luxury of defending its national interests," he said.

Russia's sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space is continuing to shrink, say analysts. In the last few years it is not just governments but also ordinary citizens who have been distancing themselves from Moscow.

Erica Marat, a professor at National Defense University in Washington, DC, pointed to shifts occurring in Caucasus and Central Asian societies.

"Now more and more people [in countries like Azerbaijan and Armenia] see Russia as an aggressive power that is carrying out a forcible cultural expansion," Marat told Kontur.

Formerly, such criticism of Russia occurred more often in Georgia, aligned at the time with the West, than in Central Asia, she said.

"But with the war in Ukraine, more and more societies in the former Soviet countries are reaching the conclusion that Russia continues to dictate its policies to the neighboring states," Marat said.

'Toxic and dangerous neighbor'

The sharp deterioration in relations between Baku and Moscow fits into a broader trend of dwindling Russian influence in the post-Soviet space.

The ruling party in Georgia now is pro-Kremlin, but it is in no hurry to restore diplomatic relations with Russia.

Meanwhile, Georgia's general population grows only more anti-Russian as the Russian occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia continues.

Armenia is pulling out of the Collective Security Treaty Organization after souring on Russia when it refused to support Armenia in its war with Azerbaijan.

The Baltic countries -- Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia -- are restricting the activities of or shutting down outright Russian cultural and political institutions out of a belief that they endanger national security.

The Baltic states disconnected from the Russian energy grid on February 9, joining the western European power grid instead.

Since 2014, Ukraine and Moldova have been gradually severing ties with Russia and bolstering their integration with the West.

Even Russia's close ally Kazakhstan, which has officially maintained its partner relationship with Russia, is gradually loosening its economic and political dependence on Russia as it deepens cooperation with China and the West.

"Astana has confronted a wave of Russian nationalist narratives and a threat to its territorial integrity," Abayev said. "Russia has become a toxic and dangerous neighbor."