By Olha Hembik | 2025-04-15

WARSAW -- Anticipating Russian threats, Poland is focusing on its defensive capabilities and is reforming its military sector.

Warsaw's fraught history with Moscow informs its determination to preserve its independence.

In 1795, Russia, Austria-Hungary and Prussia engineered the third Polish partition, erasing Poland from the map until 1918.

From 1945 to 1989, Poland was a tightly controlled Soviet satellite.

Aware of that history, Poles watching the Russian invasion of Ukraine are moving to make another Russian occupation impossible.

"Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is doing everything right, especially now, when everyone understands that war could come to Europe in a few years," said Mikhailo Strelnikov, who spearheaded the creation of the Museum of Victory over Despotism in Poland. "It's a reality that European countries have already started to prepare for."

"Strengthening the country's defensive capabilities is understandable and urgent for Poles," he told Kontur.

"Keep Russia as far away from our countries as possible," said Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, explaining one of Poland's courses of action as the Group of Five (G5) defense ministers conferred in Paris on March 12.

Poland will focus on building transatlantic relations and creating a strong Europe, he said.

"The Poles are carrying out large-scale military reform," Kirill Danilchenko, a war correspondent with military experience, posted on Facebook in February.

"With an emphasis on the Ground Forces ... Warsaw's task is to close the long border with Belarus and the Russian Federation, and the Suwalki Gap, and to isolate the [Russian] force in Kaliningrad."

Volunteer army

In February, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk unveiled the country's 2025 Economic Plan with more than 650 billion PLN (€155 billion) in investments. Forecasts suggest investments could reach 700 billion PLN (€163 billion) -- an all-time high.

The investments aim not only to revive economic growth in the country but also to bolster defensive capacity.

Poland plans to devote some funds to strengthen the eastern border with Belarus and to build road and rail infrastructure, as Poland is a critical link for supplying Western arms to Ukraine.

Poland is preparing to increase its volunteer army reserves and is expanding its volunteer military training program, which it wants to handle 100,000 participants per year by 2027.

Although Poland ended the draft in 2008, Maj. Gen. Maciej Klisz, the operational commander of Polish armed forces, last month said compulsory military service will likely return in Poland, because it will not have enough reservists.

He cited the experience of Finland, with about 5.5 million inhabitants and almost 1 million military reservists.

With a population of 37 million, to match that proportion, Poland "[needs] 7 million reservists," said Klisz on TVN24 on March 28.

Defense spending

In 2024, Poland's defense spending amounted to about 135 billion PLN (€32.3 billion), a record sum that came in at just under 4% of GDP.

More than 40% of the defense budget went to new weapons and investments in military infrastructure.

In 2025, expenditures are expected to increase to 4.7% of GDP, or about 190 billion PLN (€45.4 billion), and in 2026 they will exceed 5% of GDP.

"If we're talking about Poland's military buildup and investments in our defense, then for some time now Poland has been pursuing a policy of increasing the [share of] gross domestic product spent on defense," said Piotr Kaszuwara, a Polish war correspondent and founder of the Fundacja Przyszłość dla Ukrainy UA Future.

"If we're talking about NATO countries, then we are currently the leader here," he told Kontur.

Hybrid war on the border

Poland continues to struggle with growing migration pressure, according to the Ministry of National Defense.

Attempts by desperate poor-country natives to cross into Poland illegally, which Russia and Belarus use as a tool of hybrid warfare, have become more frequent recently.

The key link in the fight against illegal migration from Belarus will be the East Shield, which protects the European Union's borders and NATO's eastern flank from military threats.

Workers have installed an electronic barrier on sections of the Istoczanka and Świsłocz rivers in Podlaskie province to protect the Polish-Belarusian border, according to the National Defense Ministry.

This improvement cost more than 85 million PLN (€20.3 million).

Another project, modernizing the permanent border fence by the end of 2024, cost more than 117 million PLN (€28 million).

Defense industry

"The defense industry is a priority. ... Therefore, directing a stream of money towards these goals is absolutely justified," said Kosiniak-Kamysz in the Sejm (lower chamber of parliament) March 24.

Kosiniak-Kamysz on March 27 announced the purchase of 111 Borsuk infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs).

"The first [IFVs] will reach the Polish army this year!" he wrote on X.

The Borsuk IFV can overcome water obstacles and has a remote-controlled turret with a 30mm cannon. The contract is worth 6.5 billion PLN (€1.5 billion).

The IFV will enter service with the Polish army in 2025-2029. The contract is critical for the arms industry, because the Borsuk IFV is a Polish product.

Citing Rzeczpospolita, a Business Insider Polska article reported immediate plans to build a plant to produce 155mm caliber ammunition in Poland.

Klisz discussed the importance of new capabilities in his TVN24 interview.

"We military personnel, are saying precisely, 'Politicians, we need a new ammunition plant,'" he said.

Warsaw plans to allocate about 2.5 billion PLN (€598 million) to expand production capacity for large-caliber ammunition. It wants to devote another 3 billion PLN (€717.6 million) to produce other ammunition.

"No European plant produces as many arms as would be needed for a war like the one Russia is waging in Ukraine," said Kaszuwara.

Ukraine has shown the significance of the "contribution of private firms to the defense sector," he said.

"If there were more [Polish] small businesses that helped state-owned companies produce drones, anti-drone systems or other technological innovations, it would be easier," said Kaszuwara. "We still have a little time to do all this. So that our country is safe."

Learning from Ukraine

Ukrainian service members' experience can help Poland better prepare for potential aggression, say many Poles.

"Ukraine has managed to adapt to the new realities of war, applying new technologies and tactics. It has gained experience," said Jerzy Mazur, a military analyst, retired Polish officer and participant in peacekeeping missions.

"We can use that experience to modernize our own armed forces," he told Kontur.

"We can observe in real time how Western military vehicles, including Polish-made vehicles, are proving themselves in combat."

Polish air defense innovations -- the Narew and Wisła systems -- will need Ukrainian experience, Danilchenko said February 8.

"The Poles are developing at least four radar designs where it will be critical to have our experience of a months-long campaign against waves of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles amid intensive jamming and the launch of simulated targets [by Russia]," Danilchenko wrote on Facebook.

"No one attacks the strong," said Kaszuwara. "If we demonstrate that we have the ability to defend ourselves, no one will dare to attack our country."