By Murad Rakhimov | 2025-04-21

TASHKENT, Uzbekistan -- Four years into its war on Ukraine, Russia is running out of workers. A shrinking population, war deaths, conscription and a youth exodus have drained Russia's workforce -- while entrenched anti-immigrant sentiment blocks the help it needs.

Russian coal companies hope to ease the labor shortage by hiring women, who were recently permitted to operate excavators and bulldozers and work in mines. The industry is short 15 to 20% of the workers it needs, even though miners earn 30 to 60% more than the national average, RIA Novosti reported in February, citing an unnamed source at the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs.

The labor shortage stems from a large number of miners now serving in Ukraine and the difficulty of hiring migrant workers, who are seen as poorly qualified and often face local resentment, the source said.

On April 7, Vedomosti reported a 30% labor shortage in construction.

Russia is now short on tradespeople across the construction sector, from fitters to bricklayers. Industry representatives avoided blaming the war or anti-migrant sentiment, citing instead "service in the armed forces" and a drop in Central Asian labor.

"It has to do with the high exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble, regular raids to identify undocumented migrants, the overall tightening of the situation regarding migrants, as well as the rising cost and increasing complexity of obtaining work permits," Yelena Komissarova, a real estate executive, told RTVI.com in April.

Migrant workers are now seeking easier and better-paying work, like driving for ride-hailing services or making deliveries, say other observers.

Critical shortage of public transit drivers

A driver shortage is forcing cities to shut public transport routes. In some regions, the staffing shortage has reached a dire 40%.

In 2023, the number of urban transit routes in Russian cities decreased by almost 100, RBC Business reported in 2024.

The average age of professional transport drivers in Russia is nearing 50, as younger workers shun the sector's low pay and difficult conditions. As a result, cities across the country are reporting growing shortages.

In Yekaterinburg, officials have proposed raising fares to boost drivers' salaries and attract new recruits. Meanwhile, major transit operators in St. Petersburg say they are short by 300 to 400 drivers.

The driver shortage goes beyond public transport. In Moscow, ambulance drivers are quitting as they earn less than cab drivers. Long-haul trucking faces similar prolbems -- by mid-2023, Russia had a 21% shortage of truckers. Harsh conditions and poor roads have made the job unattractive to young Russians, pushing the average trucker's age past 48 and rising.

Meanwhile, local authorities in more than 10 Russian regions are banning migrants from a growing list of jobs. These cover sectors like education, food production, fishing and wholesale trade -- and in some areas, extend to retail, restaurant work, public transport and taxi driving.

The war takes away workers

Russia's wartime economy needs to import labor, yet the Kremlin has recently been doing its utmost to discourage labor migration and even incite migrant-phobic sentiment among the population.

This phenomenon -- rejecting the very workers the economy depends on -- is hardly unique, Alisher Ilkhamov, director of the London-based organization Central Asia Due Diligence, said.

Ilkhamov pointed to similar disdain for migrant workers in Europe and the United States.

"In Russia, as the war is going on, this contradiction between far-right sentiment and economic needs has taken on a specific character as the country's authorities have taken to viewing migrants not just as desirable labor but also as a source of cannon fodder," Ilkhamov told Kontur.

Massive casualties

In a contradictory move, the Kremlin is simultaneously pressuring migrants to sign military contracts, part of a targeted campaign to fill the ranks.

"Apparently the high salaries offered to men who sign contracts are less of a draw than they used to be and are not resulting in enough hires since migrants are increasingly grasping that the chances of surviving in this war are minimal," Ilkhamov said.

"So the authorities have stepped up coercive pressure on migrants... As a result, when it comes to the list of priorities, the need to send personnel to the front is outweighing economic needs."

Despite growing xenophobia, Russia inescapably needs migrant workers, since its population shrank by 600,000 people over the last year.

"The birth rate among Russia's Slavic population is going to remain low. The only way the country can somehow grow is to ensure a steady influx of new migrants," Vasily Voskoboinik, president of the All-Ukrainian Association of Companies for International Employment, told Kontur.

Migrant phobia is intensifying

It is hard to imagine Central Asians joining the Russian army when many fear entering the country. The Kremlin wants them in uniform even while fueling anti-migrant sentiment -- part of a long-standing pattern of deflecting public anger onto visible minorities, even as it makes their lives increasingly difficult.

"The population, especially in the provinces, is in a difficult economic situation; it's in decline, including moral decline," Anvar Nazirov, an economist and political analyst in Tashkent, told Kontur.

"As always, in Russian society there's no desire to speak out against the government, but there is a desire to find someone to blame, a culprit -- a scapegoat, to put it crudely."

Restrictions on migrants continue to tighten, even as the state depends on them to fill labor shortages, he said.

"In today's Russia, restrictions are being imposed on migrant activity, and I don't think the authorities plan to lift them anytime soon," Nazirov said.

"That's why Russia is currently a dead-end option for migration, even though it needs foreign labor. And those returning from the war are unlikely to work as drivers or coal miners," he said, since veterans have become used to much higher wartime pay in the army.