By Olha Chepil | 2025-05-28

KYIV -- Twelve weeks. That is all it took to expose Russia's quiet catastrophe beneath the waves of the Mediterranean.

On February 1, the Russian submarine Krasnodar slipped out of Baltiysk, bound for the Mediterranean. It was a journey that should have reaffirmed Russia's naval reach. Instead, by April 27, it was limping past Gibraltar in the opposite direction, escorted by a tugboat.

The Krasnodar, a Project 636.3 diesel-electric submarine once considered a workhorse of the fleet, was supposed to symbolize resilience. Instead, it has become a case study in failure.

With no access to its base in Tartus, Syria, and the Turkish straits effectively closed, the Russian navy's submarine force in the Mediterranean is deteriorating.

Mission impossible

"There were some technical problems on board, and they couldn't resolve them in Tartus, because they weren't allowed in. So they went to Algeria, took the vessel in tow and dragged it," Andriy Ryzhenko, a captain first-rank in the Ukrainian naval reserves and strategist with the Sonata consultancy, told Kontur.

The presence of a tugboat "at least suggests that her technical condition was either unpredictable or poor," he said.

During the deployment, the Krasnodar failed to complete a single combat mission, remained on the surface throughout and was tracked continuously by NATO forces.

Analysts say the early withdrawal was inevitable. With Tartus no longer able to provide even basic maintenance and no alternative base in place, Russia lacks the capacity to support its submarines in the region.

"Previously, there were always at least two Russian submarines in the Mediterranean, and sometimes three would loiter," Andrei Klimenko, editor-in-chief of BlackSeaNews, told Kontur of past Russian naval might.

Now, though, the Krasnodar is in trouble: "There's nowhere to repair it, nowhere. But it needs to be repaired, or it will sink. That would cause an uproar," he said.

The Mediterranean remains of "great importance" for Russia's strategic reach, serving as a base of influence over North Africa, the Middle East and beyond, said Ryzhenko. But its ability to project power there is now in question.

Underwater insulation

Since 2017, Russia has relied on its Tartus base in Syria to maintain a near-constant submarine presence in the Mediterranean. That strategy unraveled in 2024: the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime and the loss of Tartus have left the Russian navy scrambling.

"I was there twice in 1992, on ships of what was then the Black Sea Fleet. I remember the place. Russia needs it so that Soviet ships, and later Russian ones, can undergo repairs and refuel there, and maybe so the crew can get some rest," said Ryzhenko, calling Tartus indispensable to Russia's naval posture in the region.

Klimenko explained that Russia's problems in Syria have only deepened since the al-Assad regime's collapse, noting that Moscow had backed al-Assad militarily and targeted the very groups that are now in power. Now the Kremlin is scrambling to regain influence by trying to buy favor with Syria’s new leadership.

Attempts to shift submarine support operations to Egypt and Algeria have failed: neither country has facilities equipped to serve Russian boats. The Kremlin is now exploring alternatives in Africa, including Sudan and Libya, according to Klimenko.

"They will try to maintain the image of the state, but only one path remains open to them. It is to try to establish contacts, to bribe those leaders of African countries, who can be bribed ... who can be bought with money," he said.

The loss of Tartus is only part of the problem. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, European Union countries bordering the Mediterranean have barred Russian warships, and Türkiye's closure of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles has severed fleet access between seas. Following a Ukrainian missile attack in September 2023 on Sevastopol, Russia shifted repairs to Novorossiysk, but the port lacks capacity, and with the straits closed, reaching it from the Mediterranean is no longer possible.

"Now Russia's ability to deploy its fleet in the Mediterranean Sea -- submarines and other things -- is very limited," Yehor Brailian, an international relations scholar, historian and associate professor at the Kyiv Aviation Institute, told Kontur.

Nothing underwater

Analysts say Russian submarines are no longer capable of operating even minimally in the Mediterranean. As of now, not a single Russian sub remains in the region. The last to leave, the Novorossiysk, quietly exited through the Strait of Gibraltar on the night of January 2.

"Their naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea is fading to nothing, but we can't relax here and stop monitoring the Russians," said Klimenko.

Meanwhile, Russia's Black Sea Fleet -- once central to its naval power -- is in clear decline. According to Ryzhenko, the fleet has lost 28 ships since the start of the war, including major vessels. Among them was the submarine Rostov-na-Donu, which was struck by Ukrainian forces and later sank after a missile attack.

Alongside its equipment losses, the fleet has been cut off from reinforcements, with Türkiye's restrictions on military transit through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles leaving the Black Sea Fleet isolated.

"In three years, the Ukrainians have destroyed almost half of the Black Sea Fleet. That is why they no longer have the same capabilities they had before," said Brailian.

With Tartus no longer accessible and no reliable logistics network beyond the Black Sea, Russia has effectively lost the ability to project submarine power in the Mediterranean, a region long seen as a strategic priority.

"Of course, this is a disaster for them," said Klimenko.