By Olha Chepil | 2024-05-13

KYIV -- Ukraine has destroyed one third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet's 80 warships, but Russian leaders are turning a blind eye to the severity of their losses, analysts say.

A video posted online May 6 by Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate provides dramatic evidence of one of the latest hits.

The video, set to the melody of popular Ukrainian ballad "Red Viburnum in the Meadow," shows a Magura V5 maritime strike drone destroying a high-speed Russian patrol boat in Uzkaya Bay in temporarily occupied Crimea.

Naval drones first attacked the Russian navy in October 2022. Ukrainian Magura V5 drones destroyed the Russian ships Tsezar Kunikov, Ivanovets, Sergey Kotov, Akula and Serna, and damaged the Ivan Khurs.

Twenty-seven Russian vessels -- 26 surface ships and one submarine -- have already been destroyed, Ukrainian military intelligence estimates.

'Slowly sinking'

Fearing Ukrainian attacks, the Russians have been forced to hide the Black Sea Fleet's large ships far from the Crimean peninsula, but that gambit has not done much to save them, observers say.

"The Black Sea Fleet is slowly sinking," Ivan Kirichevsky, a Kyiv-based military analyst with Defense Express, told Kontur.

"Over the past year and a half, Ukraine has set a bunch of naval records," he said. "For example, the largest attack on ships in a port, or, say, the fact that in Kerch, Ukraine hit the Askold, a small missile carrier, which the Russians had not even put into operation yet."

Moscow's biggest loss was the destruction of the Black Sea Fleet's flagship Moskva in April 2022, just two months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Given Russia's overwhelming advantages before the invasion, "the Black Sea Fleet's losses are deplorable," said Maksym Palamarchuk, director of the Center for Foreign Policy Studies of the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Ukraine.

Ukraine lacked warships of its own, it sank or damaged much of the Black Sea Fleet "with the help of missiles and drones," he told Kontur.

Laughable

The Ukrainian military has pushed Russia's Black Sea Fleet into a very difficult situation, said Ukrainian navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk, a 3rd-rank captain.

"They are currently in at a tactical dead end," he said April 23 on the Freedom TV YouTube channel. "They understand that they virtually can't attack. But they can't leave the basin either."

But instead of novel solutions, the Kremlin has decided to sack its military leaders.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 12 fired long-time Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, nominating economist Andrey Belousov.

Belousov, like Shoigu, shares the distinction of becoming defense minister without any previous military background.

Last month, the Kremlin fired the commander of the Black Sea Fleet.

In March, it sacked Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov, the commander-in-chief of the Russian navy.

But shuffling personnel will not improve Russia's technological and tactical problems, analysts say.

"They think they can win with mid-20th century tactics and strategy," said Pavlo Lakiychuk, a reservist captain 1st rank and director of security projects at the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies.

"Every change of the commander is evidence that the fleet command isn't coping with the threat level," he told Kontur.

Now the Russians are rearranging their ships in Sevastopol Bay every day, and to try to protect it from Ukrainian maritime drones, they have begun to scuttle barges in the waters, experts say.

"Now everyone is simply laughing at Russia and its navy," said Lakiychuk. "The Russian Black Sea Fleet was assigned specific tasks by the top military leadership. They thought that they could be accomplished. But nothing worked out."

"And then things got even worse: image damage," he said.

Leisure sailing

Now Russia is trying to polish its image by sending ships from its Pacific Fleet on various world tours, Lakiychuk said.

For example, in March, a Russian missile cruiser and the frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov passed through the Gulf of Aden and entered the Red Sea.

In April, Russia moved the Varyag missile cruiser through the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean Sea for the first time since 2022.

"Where haven't they [Russian warships] gone? They visited Sri Lanka. They were in the Red Sea. They sailed in the Pacific Ocean," said Kirichevsky. "While the Black Sea Fleet is sinking, they are organizing demonstration tours!"

With only three missile cruisers left, such tours are foolish and wasteful, he said.

Following the destruction of the flagship Moskva, Russia has only two Project Atlant cruisers remaining: the Varyag of the Pacific Fleet and the Marshal Ustinov of the Northern Fleet.

The Northern Fleet also has the Peter the Great, a Project Orlan nuclear-powered missile cruiser, which has long been rusting in Severodvinsk.

Accordingly, despite its "demonstration tours," the Russians have nothing to brag about, Kirichevsky said.

"The Varyag ... is currently sailing around the world. The Russians needed this missile cruiser from the Pacific Fleet to show to at least Iran or China ... 'Look, we have something to sail on. We're not poor relatives!'" he said.

"But this is a very incompetent approach, especially considering what's happening with their navy in general."

Corruption, smuggling

Another problem that has emerged since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine is the huge competition among Russian sailors and officers for positions on "safe ships."

The military command's incompetence is leading to "declining" morale in the navy -- as well as corruption, analysts say.

Some sailors pay bribes to join the Pacific or Northern fleet, said Lakiychuk, adding that either fleet has lucrative smuggling opportunities.

The Russian navy is rife with smuggling, not only by ordinary sailors and officers but also by senior leaders who transport contraband from Russia to Syria and back, he said.

"Everyone participates in this corruption at his own level," Lakiychuk said. "The person who just transports two bags of detergent by sea, and the person who can fill an entire hold. And this has been done in the Russian navy for a long time."

"Of course, there are more would-be smugglers than men who want to get into the Black Sea Fleet, where [Ukrainian troops] most likely will shoot you ... or you will drown," said Lakiychuk.

Russian casualties keep rising, despite the Kremlin's efforts to hide the true number of dead and wounded.

About 500,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in Ukraine since February 2022, France estimated earlier this month.

"This year Ukraine has destroyed many ships and boats. And rescue operations were carried out for them each time, and there were men there," said Palamarchuk. "But the Russian command turns a blind eye to this. After all, [lost] human lives are not losses for them."