By Sultan Musayev | 2025-06-24

Despite public distrust and geopolitical risks, Kazakhstan is betting its energy future on two nuclear superpowers: Russia and China.

After decades of indecision, the government has selected Rosatom and China National Nuclear Corp. to build the country's first two nuclear power plants. French and South Korean companies made the final shortlist but lost out on the contracts.

Almassadam Satkaliyev, director of the Kazakh Agency for Atomic Energy, announced the decision June 14, calling the winning bids from Russia and China "objectively ... the strongest offers."

The push for nuclear power, on the agenda since the late 1990s, has stirred deep public unease over environmental hazards and potential energy dependence on Russia. Critics have questioned the wisdom of entrusting strategic infrastructure to a partner they describe as "toxic."

https://www.nur.kz/society/1786940-mesto-dla-stroitelstva-aes-vybrali-v-almatinskoj-oblasti/

However, the project won more than 70% support in a nationwide referendum last October. By March, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev expanded the scope, announcing plans for not one but three nuclear plants.

"It is strategically important for us to create a new energy sector that will provide a solid foundation for dynamic economic development for decades to come," Tokayev said.

Russia takes the lead

Kazakhstan has awarded Russia's Rosatom the contract to build the first nuclear power plant, set for Lake Balkhash in Zhambyl district, officials announced June 14. The Kazakh government approved the site in February.

Construction will end by 2036, Rosatom estimated. The governments are negotiating Russian export financing, both sides said, with project costs and terms to be disclosed later.

Kazakhstan will retain full ownership and control, supplying its own uranium and managing all operations, according to Satkaliyev. Kazakh specialists must be able to run the plant independently, and Kazakhstan plans to expand training, technical capacity and local construction, he said.

China's parallel bid

China is expected to build Kazakhstan's second nuclear power plant, likely in Kurchatov on the Irtysh river, though details remain limited. A Kazakh-Chinese joint venture in nearby Ust-Kamenogorsk has supplied nuclear fuel to China for years.

The two Kazakh nuclear plants will be built in parallel, say Kazakh officials.

Russia and China already hold significant stakes in Kazakhstan's uranium sector. Until late 2024, Rosatom, through its subsidiary Uranium One, was involved in 6 of Kazatomprom's 14 mining projects, with about 255,000 tons of reserves under Russian control.

By year's end, Rosatom exited several joint ventures, selling portions of its assets to Chinese firms. Nurlan Zhumagulov, director of the Energy Monitor Fund, told Kontur the Russian state company refocused on the much larger Budenovskoye deposit in Turkistan province, where reserves are estimated at a minimum of 350,000 tons. Former Kazatomprom officials claim the true figure could be as high as 800,000 tons.

Geopolitics over economics

China holds a smaller share of Kazakhstan's uranium deposits than does Russia but is one of its top two buyers. According to the First Credit Bureau, from January to July 2024, 46% of revenue from Kazakh uranium exports came from Russia. Measured by weight, 44% of exports went to China, with smaller amounts sent to Europe.

Until recently, observers generally had expected Russia's Rosatom to prevail in the contest to build Kazakh nuclear power plants.

But by early 2025, Kazakh media began reporting that China had submitted a more attractive bid -- one aimed at edging out Moscow.

Russia's economic troubles, worsened by Western sanctions punishing it for its invasion of Ukraine, made it a less reliable long-term partner, say analysts. For two years, Moscow has been unable to deliver on a $3 billion commitment to build three thermal power plants in Kazakhstan, forcing officials to seek new investors.

Despite this failure, Kazakhstan awarded the first nuclear project to Rosatom, prompting public pushback. Social media users questioned the decision, and Zhumagulov noted on Facebook that the Kremlin recently had pressured Kazakh authorities to deliver a favorable outcome.

The decision came more from politics than from economics, say analysts. Writing in Russia's Business Online, Azat Akhunov, an Orientalist, argued that Astana was forced to navigate competing foreign interests while trying to project independence.

"This issue, initially an economic one, has acquired a strong political undertone because of the need to account for the interests of various parties and demonstrate independence while under external pressure," he wrote.

Public distrust

Kazakhstan's awarding of the first nuclear plant contract to Rosatom runs counter to public opinion. According to Akhunov, surveys show most Kazakhs favor France as the preferred nuclear partner, followed by South Korea. China ranks third and Russia last. Social media discussions reflect widespread distrust of Russian technology, with many citing the Chernobyl disaster of 1986 as a cautionary tale.

"Russia has, first of all, corruption, and second, outdated technology," Almaty resident and entrepreneur Saken Maulenov told Kontur. "And by the way, we're talking about a nuclear power plant!"

Public concern has been fueled by more recent incidents as well. In 2016, during construction of a Rosatom-led plant in Ostrovets, Belarus, workers accidentally dropped a reactor vessel during installation.

"For me, it's natural déjà vu, as if I traveled in a time machine to a quarter of a century ago when we were investigating the causes of the Chernobyl disaster. Similar things happened then..." physicist and former USSR Supreme Soviet member Yuri Voronezhtsev told Radio Azattyq, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Kazakh service, in 2016.

The vessel was undamaged, Rosatom said later. But it replaced it to ease public fears.

A delicate balance

Given Russia's economic instability, Western sanctions and concerns over its nuclear technology, analysts say the country is a risky partner for a project of this scale. Still, Astana had limited options.

Kazakhstan managed a pragmatic solution by choosing both Russia and China, Talgat Ismagambetov, a senior researcher at the Institute for Philosophy, Political Science and Religious Studies in Kazakhstan, told Kontur.

"Our country found itself between two fires, but ultimately Kazakhstan will not be completely dependent on Russia or China," he said. "We are diversifying our nuclear energy sector and should only benefit from this."