By Olha Chepil | 2025-07-24

When war forced millions of Ukrainians to flee, few expected they would help boost another country's economy. But in Poland, that is exactly what happened.

Rather than burdening the country, Ukrainian refugees have become an economic engine. In 2024, they contributed 2.7% to Poland's GDP and achieved an employment rate topping 69%.

As of now, almost 1 million Ukrainians live in Poland, according to Eurostat.

What initially looked like a humanitarian crisis with economic risks has instead spurred growth. Economists now refer to it as a "paradox of war," an economy thriving after absorbing millions of displaced persons.

"Poland's economy made money thanks to the arrival of the Ukrainians," Alexey Plotnikov, Ukrainian economist, told Kontur.

"Instead of the labor market collapsing, GDP has grown. Instead of unemployment, there are new jobs. Instead of a slump, small business is growing."

Humanitarian challenge turned economic growth

The United Nations Refugee Agency commissioned consulting firm Deloitte to examine how Ukrainian refugees have influenced Poland's economy. The results, published in June, were striking: refugees generated 1.37% of Poland's GDP in 2023, rising to 2.7% -- about €22 billion -- in 2024.

Ukrainian refugees could generate 3.2% of Poland's GDP by 2030, Deloitte estimates.

Many Ukrainians transferred their work lives to Poland with little disruption, according to Plotnikov.

"Employed workers who worked [in Ukraine] went and found similar work in Poland," he said.

The report found 69% of working-age Ukrainian refugees are employed, close to Poland's national rate of 75%. Rather than displacing local workers, they helped expand the labor market. Refugees often filled lower-paid roles, enabling Poles to move into higher-paying jobs, said Taras Kryvyi, an economics graduate student at the University of Warsaw.

"[Poles] didn't lose their jobs but rather improved their situation," he told Kontur.

Many Ukrainians in Poland remain underemployed compared to their qualifications, said Kryvyi, a financial risk analyst who has lived in Poland for more than 10 years.

Refugees with college degrees earn 22% more than those without but still earn far less than educated locals do.

"If you're a local with a higher education, you earn 84% more [than a refugee without a degree]. That is a very significant difference," said Kryvyi.

In 2024, Ukrainian migrants contributed a net €2.9 billion to the Polish budget, even after subtracting for the child support benefits they received, according to Poland's National Development Bank.

"Everything is growing. Everything is developing, at least from my macroeconomic perspective," Kryvyi said.

New energy for the labor market

Ukrainians in Poland are building a growing business sector that extends well beyond low-skilled labor.

"Ukrainians are creating new businesses. For example, many beauty salons, businesses for the premium segment. I also see big business -- for example, delivery," said Kryvyi.

As of July, Ukrainian entrepreneurs had registered more than 29,000 companies in Poland, almost half of them since Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022, according to Opendatabot, a Ukrainian public data platform.

"The most popular areas among Ukrainians are construction, customer service and areas related to freight forwarding, logistics and transport," said Plotnikov.

Most of the businesses are small, say analysts.

Building the economy

One of the clearest examples of refugee-driven entrepreneurship is Oksana Savchenko, a musician from Kyiv who launched a music school in Warsaw within two years of fleeing the war.

"In February 2022, I left Kyiv and immediately went to Krakow. I didn't know any Polish, but I had to look for a job," Savchenko told Kontur.

She first worked as a kindergarten teacher but continued offering private piano lessons on the side. That opportunity became the foundation for her business.

"I'm a musician. In my free time, I went around and gave private music lessons, particularly piano lessons, to Poles. This allowed me to practice the language, get additional income and most important, not give up on what I love," recalled Savchenko.

In 2023, she received two grants, one targeted at Ukrainian woman entrepreneurs. Savchenko used the funding to open MUZYKA-MUZYKA, a music school offering instruction in piano, vocals, guitar and ukulele. All instructors are Ukrainian, and the business is fully registered and paying taxes.

Today, about 40% of the school's customers are Polish citizens. Savchenko's story reflects a broader trend: during the past two years, Ukrainians have opened thousands of small businesses in Poland, including cafes, studios, shipping firms and schools.

"Businesses are operating. There's demand, and as you can see, Poland also benefits from Ukrainians staying, working and creating new ventures," said Savchenko.