By Galina Korol | 2025-09-18

Russia is turning up the pressure on Finland with a mix of old tricks and new threats -- migrants pushed toward the border, GPS signals jammed and fresh warnings of Finland's "collapse."

In a September 8 opinion piece for the state-run TASS news agency, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, accused Finland of "preparing for an attack on Russia," invoked "ties with Nazism" and a "genocide" of Slavs, and warned that war could "lead to the collapse of Finnish statehood forever."

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said the rhetoric mirrors the false narratives the Kremlin used to justify its invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. They noted Medvedev's threats are part of a broader campaign to intimidate NATO states and lay the groundwork for future aggression.

Andrey Kartapolov, chair of the Russian State Duma's Defense Committee, echoed the line a day later, telling TASS: "Finland is becoming a hotbed of fascism faster than Ukraine."

According to Ilya Kotov, a Kyiv-based public policy expert, such statements are a deliberate part of Moscow's hybrid strategy.

"The goal is to produce fatigue and create an impression of constant danger," he told Kontur.

A lost opportunity

Russia views Finland as a vital junction point where the Baltics, northern Europe and the Arctic converge, not just as a 1,340-kilometer shared border.

Since joining NATO, Finland has put the alliance's frontier just 150 kilometers (93 miles) from Saint Petersburg, with the Kola Peninsula's nuclear submarine fleet directly facing the bloc.

"Finland became NATO's northern shield," said Kotov, calling the country a "missed opportunity" and now an enemy for Moscow. He noted that 19th-century Russia saw Finland as an outpost against the West, but the 1939 Winter War exposed Soviet vulnerability. Finland ceded territory but proved a small nation could resist a much larger aggressor.

Kotov argued that history is repeating as Finland confronts a neighbor with imperial ambitions.

Joel Linnainmäki, a research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, said Finns doubt relations with Russia will improve even after the war in Ukraine.

"For relations to improve, Russia needs to change its aggressive and expansionist policies," he said in a May interview with Tyzhden.

Deserters or agents?

Analysts say it is unclear whether Moscow would launch a direct attack on Helsinki, but they stress Finland must be ready to resist. Kotov said it is "clear to everyone that Moscow won't shy away from attacking."

Experts warn a conflict with NATO could start not with tanks at the border but with "small signals" such as hidden arsenals, sabotage or provocations. Russia tested that playbook in 2014 when its "little green men" seized Crimea without firing a shot.

Denys Kovalev, a historian and Ukrainian service member who heads the Research Center of Finland, told Kontur that Russia is already probing Finland and the Baltic region through hybrid tactics. He cited undersea cable sabotage, GPS jamming and pushing migrants across forested border areas.

Finnish officials are also reporting Russian deserters slipping through the woods as they flee the war in Ukraine.

Matti Pitkäniitty, commander of the North Karelia border guard district, told the Guardian in August that illegal crossings by Russian defectors are likely to grow. He warned that military-trained personnel fleeing the war can navigate forests and survive undetected for days.

"Now, one of the risks we are facing are the military-trained personnel fleeing the war. They of course know how to navigate through the woods and how to survive there if they need to stay out of sight for a couple of days," he said.

Kovalev warned that some defectors entering Finland could be Russia's Federal Security Service recruits with combat experience.

"These are people who most likely have combat experience and know how to use weapons and explosives. This is an especially substantial threat if they worked in drone units," he added.

Kovalev said these fighters could aid the Kremlin since Finland lacks defenses to stop drones before they reach its territory.

Weapons caches

A new red flag surfaced in early September when Finnish police found large illegal weapons caches in Voikkaa and Koria, about 80 kilometers (50 miles) from Russia, local media reported. Authorities have not disclosed details while the investigation continues, but Militarnyi said one suspect is a former police officer.

Kovalev said the caches could be seen as part of Moscow's hybrid tactics.

"These could be people who were undercover or recruited by the Russian intelligence agencies," he said, noting that Finland's eastern regions with their forests and lakes are conducive to covertly moving weapons and equipment across the border.

Viktor Yahun, a reserve major general in Ukraine's Security Service, said Russia used similar weapons caches when it seized part of Donbas in 2014. But he noted that Finland is different, with authorities closely monitoring migrants from Russia.

"[The Finns] are gradually pushing [the Russians] out. They're barring [Russians] from buying and selling real estate and prohibiting many other things," Yahun told Kontur.

An important player

Despite vulnerabilities, Finland is among Europe's most prepared states, with the largest reserve army. By 2031, it is expected to field more than 1 million service members.

Kotov said Finland is investing in shelters and cybersecurity, while NATO membership adds another layer of security.

A further sign of shifting power in the region is NATO's new Multi-Corps Land Component Command in Mikkeli, about 140 kilometers (87 miles) from the Russian border.

The Kremlin hoped hybrid attacks and threats would pressure Helsinki, but its actions have instead strengthened Finland’s resolve. The country is now emerging as a key NATO player on the northern flank.

"Our security environment is serious and unpredictable. There is no direct threat to Finland, but the situation could change on a dime if there are broader strategic shifts," said Linnainmäki, pointing out that the country is pragmatic when it comes to security.

"We're preparing for the worst unforeseen situations so we can avoid them."