By Galina Korol | 2025-06-05

KYIV -- In Finland, the forests are thick, the winters brutal and neutrality once ran as deep as the thousand lakes that dot its landscape. For decades, diplomacy, not confrontation, was the national instinct. But Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine shattered that quiet calculation.

Now a member of NATO, Finland has inherited a new reality: it guards the alliance's longest border with Russia-- over 1,300km of rugged, exposed terrain. And across that stretch, something unsettling is taking shape. Satellite images and defense analysts have detected military tents mushrooming in the frost, warehouses for vehicles rising where pine trees once stood.

Russia, it seems, is not content with distant battlefields. Its "brotherly love" is creeping closer, and it is wearing camouflage.

Military tents and vehicle warehouses

Previously abandoned Russian bases near Finland are coming back to life, The New York Times reported on May 19. Satellite images show new tents, vehicle warehouses and upgraded shelters for fighter jets, all evidence of a gradual military buildup in a region long dormant.

NATO officials have confirmed the authenticity of the imagery. More-significant developments could follow along the border, warned Finnish researcher Emil Kastehelmi.

"At the moment, if we're talking about numbers, they do not pose a threat," Alexander Khara, an analyst at the Center for Defense Strategies in Kyiv, told Kontur.

Meanwhile, observers have noted the return of Russian helicopters to a base near Murmansk, a port city within the Arctic Circle, where they had not been stationed in nearly two decades.

Satellite images show dozens of Russian warplanes at another Far Northern base, Olenya, about 150km from the Finnish border.

Ukrainian drones attacked Olenya June 1.

Finnish defense officials expect Russia's military strength in the region to grow after the war in Ukraine ends, Janne Kuusela, director of defense policy at Finland's Ministry of Defense, told The Times.

Finland anticipates Russia's presence in the region will triple within five years, The Times said.

Russia's appetite and imperial ambitions

"Russia's appetite won't stop at Ukraine," said Ukrainian Col. (ret.) Sergey Grabsky, a military analyst and veteran of peacekeeping missions in Kosovo and Iraq.

Moscow knows Finland would never launch a first strike, so it boldly expands its military infrastructure, he said.

The gradual reactivation of bases and buildup of forces, he added, follow a familiar Russian pattern ahead of future operations.

Grabsky pointed to recent military exercises that exposed the Russian army's difficulty in rapidly deploying troops.

"Time plays an extremely important role in assessing the ability to wage war," Grabsky told Kontur. From a strategic standpoint, he sees Moscow's ambitions as deeply imperial.

The Kremlin has openly expressed a desire to restore the Russian empire, which included Finland from 1809 to 1917.

"Based on that, it's logical to assume that Russia wants to return to its imperial borders," Grabsky said.

Moscow seeks dominant access to the Baltic Sea, something difficult to achieve without Finland unless it is neutralized or controlled, he said.

Grabsky ironically called Russia's Baltic Fleet "the Gulf of Finland Fleet," capable of entering the gulf but unable to conduct major operations without access to Finnish ports.

A significant signal

Finland joined NATO in 2023, but unlike many European nations, it never underestimated its eastern neighbor. Finland is uniquely aware of the nature of the threat it faces from Russia, said Khara.

The Soviet Union invaded Finland in 1939 and took 10% of its territory in the peace settlement afterward.

Over the past 80 years, Finland has built about 50,000 bomb shelters, enough to protect 4.8 million of its 5.5 million inhabitants.

The government is now focused on several key areas to strengthen national security, including plans to increase defense spending to 3% of GDP in the coming years. Officials intend to raise the upper age limit for reservists to 65, which would expand the reserve force by 125,000, reaching one million by 2031.

"This is a major signal from Finland. It shows a clear intention to have a population capable of taking up arms and repelling an attack if one occurs," political scientist and international relations scholar Stanislav Zhelihovsky told Kontur.

Helsinki has publicly committed to modernizing its military, with plans to acquire F-35 fighter jets and air defense systems capable of countering Russian Iskander missiles, Khara noted.

Finland's defensive edge

On April 1, the Finnish government announced plans to begin preparations to withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, which bans the use, stockpiling, production, and transfer of antipersonnel land mines, according to Zhelihovsky.

"I believe it's quite possible that, along with building various defense structures along the border, Finland will intensify mine placement and similar measures to prevent the Russians from crossing into Finnish territory, or at least make it much more difficult if they try," Zhelihovsky said.

Finland's geography plays a key role. Unlike Ukraine, it has dense forests and thousands of lakes that create a natural barrier to large-scale military operations, Khara noted.

This topography is especially important, "considering the Russian army's inability to conduct maneuver warfare," he added.

A tough nut to crack

While Putin pursues imperial ambitions, Finland, shaped by history and free of illusions, is showing an unprecedented commitment to self-defense, say analysts.

The country is not only strengthening its armed forces and civil defense but is fully integrating into NATO's collective security system. Finland conducts both independent military drills and joint exercises with international allies. Finland hosts a NATO Center of Excellence focused on countering hybrid threats, said Khara.

Even before joining NATO, Finland's military was considered one of the most capable in Europe. Now, as part of the alliance, it benefits from advanced technology, intelligence sharing and joint defense planning.

"Some provocations [from Russia] are possible, of course. But Finland is a tough nut to crack," Khara said.