By Olha Chepil | 2025-10-23

Russia isn't trying to win the war in Ukraine with one big blow. It's trying to bleed Kyiv dry with a thousand small ones.

Since the summer of 2025, Russian commanders have shifted from massive offensives to smaller, targeted breaches, military analysts say. Assault teams of four to six soldiers attack different areas at once, aiming to slip past defenses and carve out footholds.

"These teams are supposed to attack, taking advantage of the terrain, and penetrate into Ukrainian territory. That's what happened near Dobropillia, where Russia first applied this tactic," Sergei Bratchuk, a representative of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army, told Kontur.

The strategy is meant to stretch Ukrainian forces, bite off pieces of territory, and either dig in or strike from the rear. In practice, it looks like a series of pinpoint attacks across the front, with dozens of teams moving at once to create bridgeheads for further advances.

"The 'thousand cuts' tactic is one Ukraine used in 2023–24," Bratchuk said. "Russians imitated it, adopted it and are now trying to use it."

Frontline 'thousand cuts'

The "one thousand cuts" metaphor suggests Russian forces are striking everywhere along the front. In reality, the attacks are concentrated in narrow zones, military analyst Alexander Kovalenko, a correspondent with InfoResist, told Kontur.

He noted the line of contact stretches more than 1,700 kilometers (about 1,050 miles), but active fighting covers only about 100 kilometers (62 miles) in scattered areas.

Most assaults are taking place near Novopavlivka in Dnipropetrovsk, where troops are trying to advance between the Vovcha and Vorona rivers, and along approaches to Hulyaipole in Zaporizhzhia. Other hotspots include Siversk, with Kupiansk and Pokrovsk frequent large-city targets.

"The Russian army simply has narrow sections where they can advance, and there are sections where the Russians are in complete disarray," Kovalenko said.

He added that Russian forces lack the resources to probe the entire front, and most sectors see either stagnation or failed advances.

The "one thousand cuts" approach requires steady progress across many zones, but "this is not happening," he said.

Despite limited success, Russian propaganda promotes staged videos of troops raising flags in villages to simulate victories.

According to the OSINT project Deep State UA, Russia's advance slowed in September, with troops seizing only about half as much territory as in August.

Strikes in the rear

As small assault teams probe the front, Moscow has escalated strikes on Ukraine's transport and energy networks. Drone swarms and missiles have hit roads, railway junctions, power plants and substations, blocking shipments of weapons, supplies and humanitarian aid.

"These missile and drone strikes in the rear are in fact terrorism," Alexey Baranovsky, a journalist and veteran of the Free Russia Legion, told Kontur. "On the eve of the heating season, they are trying to knock out electricity and heating systems and attack logistics hubs."

"The Shaheds [drones] are simply attacking our key stations en masse," Oleksandr Pertsovskyi, Chairman of the management board of Ukrainian Railways, said in a September interview with Ukrinform.

Analysts say the campaign combines military calculation with psychological warfare, aiming to intimidate civilians and weaken resilience before winter.

"This is, unfortunately, a traditional Russian tactic. Russia is again trying to hit Ukraine with a blackout this year," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video message on September 28.

One of the largest strikes came September 28, when Russia launched nearly 500 drones and more than 40 missiles. Four people were killed in Kyiv, including a child, more than 70 were injured, and 100 buildings were damaged.

Baranovsky called it "a purely terrorist tactic... to sow fear among the peaceful Ukrainian population." Analysts add that nightly barrages deprive civilians of sleep, turning the campaign into a war of attrition.

Fall and winter outlook

Experts warn Russia's fall campaign will mirror summer tactics, pressing both the front and rear. But weather and logistics may hinder progress, with rain and freezing temperatures complicating armored movement and drone operations.

"The Kremlin plans to continue the offensive, but the autumn campaign will be influenced by the weather," said Bratchuk.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the conscription of 135,000 citizens by year's end, the largest fall draft since the war began. Analysts say the Kremlin treats manpower as expendable.

"Their infantry assaults choke on cannon fodder and bring no significant results, so they will intensify air terror against civilians and infrastructure," said Baranovsky.

Moscow aims to weaponize cold and darkness, experts believe. But Ukraine endured the harsh winter of 2022–23, with bolstered air defenses and energy companies deploying backup circuits and mobile substations.

"At the beginning of 2025, Putin made big plans. But thanks to the Defense Forces, the Russian spring and summer campaigns were frustrated. Ukraine is standing," Bratchuk said.