By Olha Chepil | 2025-06-12

KYIV -- Russia is intensifying its offensive across several sections of the front, concentrating firepower and manpower on a coordinated push toward eastern Ukrainian cities. The pattern of attacks suggests a deliberate effort to position troops for urban combat ahead of autumn and winter.

Strikes and ground advances have focused on cities including Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Lyman and Kramatorsk. Kyiv has reported additional pressure in Zaporizhzhia province and the Kupiansk-Lyman area, signaling a broadening of Russian targeting.

Fronts and goals

"If we trace the offensive's general features across different areas, it becomes clear that almost all of them aim to reach major cities by autumn and winter and start battles for them," Alexander Kovalenko, a military analyst and correspondent with InfoResist, told Kontur.

Russia seeks to break through to major population centers -- Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Kupiansk -- and force urban fighting supported by artillery and first-person-view drones, said Kovalenko.

In the north, Russian units have escalated operations in Sumy province, particularly around the villages of Basovka and Novenkoye.

More than 50,000 Russian troops are massing near the Sumy border, raising concerns of a new large-scale offensive, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

"Right now, they are amassing troops on the Sumy front. Over 50,000," said Zelenskyy at a news conference in Kyiv May 27.

Resources and tactics

Russia's offensive suffers from supply and personnel shortages, despite its numerical advantage, say analysts. Instead of mechanized units, many assaults rely on civilian vehicles and motorcycles, limiting mobility and tactical impact.

"I'm currently in Sumy province, and I see how everything is happening. They are trying to penetrate deep into Ukraine in small groups: those who make it dig in. Then another wave comes," Alexei Baranovsky, a journalist and veteran of the volunteer Freedom of Russia Legion, told Kontur.

"Russia does not have unlimited manpower for now, but there are enough fools willing to die for money," he added.

Baranovsky cited small Russian units marching or riding motorcycles that attempt to take ground despite heavy casualties.

"Where they gain a foothold after incredible human losses, they gradually move forward," said Baranovsky.

Russian forces now control four settlements in Sumy province. Several others remain contested.

"The line of contact is slowly moving deeper into Ukrainian territory. Reports say the Russians are capturing about 1 sq. km per day," said Baranovsky.

"Given the ... geography and circumstances, this is a very slow advance at enormous human cost."

Without full mobilization and a transition to a war economy, Russia's capacity to sustain large-scale operations may be limited, say war watchers.

Blows to the rear

Russia's summer offensive includes a parallel campaign aimed at destabilizing Ukraine's rear through mass missile strikes, nighttime drone attacks and bombardments of infrastructure and residential areas.

These actions aim to destroy logistics and undermine public morale, said Serhiy Bratchuk, a military and political correspondent and a spokesman for the Ukrainian Volunteer Army.

"The Russians are trying to demoralize the Ukrainian population, but the result is the opposite: it strengthens social unity and the refusal to accept disgraceful terms of capitulation," he told Kontur.

Russia has the capacity to sustain regular bombardments, particularly with drones, and is using these strikes to coerce Ukrainian leadership into accepting unfavorable terms, said Bratchuk.

Moscow seeks a buffer zone to shield its territory from drone attacks and to demonstrate its control of occupied areas, he said.

"[Russian President Vladimir] Putin wants to show that these are territories that he has occupied, to keep them under his control. But so far, the gains on the ground are not advancing the Kremlin dictator's political and military ambitions," said Bratchuk.

Anticipating a summer campaign, Ukraine began constructing layered fortifications in the spring, including concrete bunkers, antitank obstacles and fortified firing positions.

"The Ukrainian Defense Forces are ready to counter the Russian offensive," said Baranovsky.

In response to Russia's push, Ukraine June 1 launched Operation Spider's Web, a coordinated strike on Russian airfields and logistics. The operation hit four air bases and severely damaged Russia's air power.

"On one hand, Russia has launched a summer offensive; on the other, it is being pushed toward diplomacy. This is a challenge and an opportunity for all of us to try to end this war," said Zelenskyy on June 2 at the Vilnius summit of the Bucharest Nine.