By Ekaterina Janashia | 2025-10-28

Russian President Vladimir Putin has admitted that his country's air-defense missiles caused last year's crash of an Azerbaijani passenger jet that killed 38 people. It was an unusually public confession that analysts say reflects Moscow's weakened hand in the South Caucasus.

The admission followed months of deepening diplomatic fallout between Russia and Azerbaijan, triggered by the Kremlin's initial attempts to deflect blame for the disaster.

Baku had accused Moscow of covering up its role in the crash, while Russian authorities issued conflicting accounts and detained Azerbaijani nationals inside Russia in the months that followed.

In recent weeks, however, tensions have shown signs of easing. Azerbaijan moved a detained Russian journalist to house arrest, and the Kremlin signaled readiness to resume cultural cooperation -- tentative gestures toward reconciliation after nearly a year of recriminations.

The crash

The crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 on December 25, 2024, marked one of the most dramatic breakdowns in Russian-Azerbaijani relations since the Soviet collapse.

The flight, diverted from its scheduled landing in the southern Russian city of Grozny, crash-landed in Kazakhstan after two Russian missiles -- fired that morning to destroy Ukrainian drones -- exploded just meters from the aircraft, killing 38 of the 67 people on board.

During a meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on October 9, Putin admitted that two Russian missiles "exploded only a few meters away" from the Azerbaijani plane.

"The two missiles that were fired did not directly hit the aircraft. If that had happened, it would have crashed on the spot," Putin said.

According to him, Russian air traffic controllers suggested the pilot land in Makhachkala, but the pilot first attempted to reach his home airport before trying to land in Kazakhstan, where the plane ultimately went down.

"Russia will do everything necessary in such tragic cases to provide compensation, and the actions of all officials will be legally assessed," Putin said.

Aliyev had previously accused Russia of attempting to conceal the crash's true cause. Earlier this month, however, the Kremlin readout noted that the Azerbaijani president thanked Putin for providing "detailed information about the tragedy."

Initial statements by Russia's air transport agency suggested that the plane, an Embraer 190, was forced to divert after a bird strike, an explanation that fueled public outrage in Azerbaijan once evidence emerged of Russian missile activity in the region that morning.

Baku-Moscow tensions

It took more than nine months for Putin to admit Moscow's role in the crash. During that time, ties between Moscow and Baku plunged to their lowest point in decades, marked by a rapid escalation of retaliatory actions.

Following the crash, Azerbaijan closed the Kremlin-backed Russian House cultural center in Baku in early February.

The crisis deepened in June when Russian police killed two Azerbaijani citizens during a raid in Yekaterinburg, detaining six others. Azerbaijan accused Russian law enforcement of torture and murder, while Russia’s Investigative Committee offered conflicting accounts.

Azerbaijan responded forcefully, signaling a shift away from Moscow's orbit. Police raided the Baku offices of the Kremlin-backed news outlet Sputnik and arrested its bureau chief and editor-in-chief on fraud and money laundering charges, which Moscow denounced as illegal.

In turn, Russian state television aired footage of arrested Russian nationals, some bearing signs of beating. Russia retaliated by deporting the leader of the Azerbaijani diaspora and arresting other prominent Azerbaijanis.

The standoff saw both sides summon ambassadors, cancel cultural events, and issue harsh public statements. Azerbaijani state media aired a segment comparing Putin to Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, while citizens engaged in rhetorical warfare on social media.

'A new, powerful force'

Experts in the region say Putin's admission and apology show that Russia is steadily losing influence in the South Caucasus, distracted and weakened by the war in Ukraine.

"After the victory in the Karabakh wars and the return of territories, Azerbaijan not only emerged as a victorious state but also solidified its role as a strong regional player actively cooperating with other countries. It has become a new, powerful force," Alex Petriashvili, senior fellow at the Tbilisi-based Rondeli Foundation, told Kontur.

Beyond regional partnerships, a key diplomatic achievement for Aliyev has been strengthening relations with the United States, particularly during the Donald Trump administration, Petriashvili said.

According to the career diplomat, within US political and expert circles, Azerbaijan is widely seen as an important ally in the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and, to some extent, the Middle East.

He also noted growing cooperation between the European Union and Azerbaijan, coupled with Baku's support for Ukraine.

"Based on all this, Russia realizes that it is no longer dealing with one of the former republics of the post-Soviet space, but with a significantly strengthened regional player," Petriashvili said.

"With this player, it is more pragmatic to normalize and maintain relations than to deepen a crisis. This calculation likely led Putin to publicly admit responsibility for the incident of the downing of the Azerbaijani plane nine months later and to meet with Aliyev from a less assertive, or 'retreating,' position."