By Ekaterina Janashia | 2025-12-17

At more than 100 kilometers (about 62 miles) above the Earth, Germany has drawn a new defensive line, activating a missile shield built to intercept long-range ballistic missiles before they descend toward Europe.

On December 3, the Bundeswehr formally commissioned the first elements of the Israeli-American Arrow 3 ballistic missile defense system, a move that marks one of the most consequential changes to German and European security policy in decades.

The roughly $4 billion system was inaugurated at Holzdorf air base in eastern Germany, where it immediately began forming what officials describe as an outer layer of protection for Central Europe.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has cast the deployment as a strategic necessity as Europe reassesses its security architecture following Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The Arrow 3 activation is the most tangible step so far in Germany's European Sky Shield Initiative, or ESSI, a continent-wide effort to close long-standing gaps in air and missile defense.

Developed by Israel with US support, the Arrow Weapon System-Germany represents Israel's largest-ever military export contract and a rare acquisition of cutting-edge missile defense technology by a European state.

Outer layer of defense

Arrow 3's defining feature is its ability to intercept ballistic missiles outside the Earth's atmosphere, a capability no other European country currently fields. Unlike shorter-range systems such as the US-made Patriot or Germany's Iris-T, Arrow 3 is designed to track, intercept and destroy long-range ballistic missiles while they are still in space.

The interceptor missiles can hit targets at altitudes exceeding 100 kilometers (about 62 miles). Destroying threats at that height allows debris to fall well away from populated areas and provides critical early-warning time for civil and military authorities.

"The new Arrow system introduces an outer layer of defense," Pistorius said, as cited by Defcros News. "This grants us not only early warning capabilities but also enhanced protection for our citizens and critical infrastructure against long-range ballistic missiles."

The system is intended to sit atop a layered defense structure that integrates multiple systems to counter threats across different ranges and trajectories. With additional Arrow 3 sites planned, Germany expects the shield to provide broad coverage of its own territory while extending a protective umbrella over neighboring countries tied into ESSI.

"With this strategic capability, which is unique among our European partners, we are securing our central role at the heart of Europe," Pistorius said. "So we are protecting not just ourselves but also our partners."

He added that the deployment strengthens "the European pillar of NATO" and helps Germany meet alliance capability targets.

ESSI currently includes 24 participating countries, reflecting growing demand across Europe for a unified and modern missile defense network.

Bundeswehr manpower overhaul

The missile defense milestone coincided with another major shift in German defense policy. Lawmakers in the Bundestag approved a sweeping reform aimed at reversing chronic personnel shortages in the Bundeswehr and improving readiness.

The legislation passed with 323 votes in favor and 272 against. It stops short of restoring compulsory military service, which Germany suspended in 2011, but introduces mandatory screening for all 18-year-old men. The measure is designed to expand the pool of eligible candidates while relying on incentives to drive voluntary enlistment.

Those incentives include higher pay and more flexible service models, which the government hopes will make military service more attractive to younger Germans.

Berlin's targets are ambitious. Germany plans to grow its total force to about 460,000 personnel, including 260,000 active-duty soldiers and 200,000 reservists. At present, the Bundeswehr has roughly 182,000 active soldiers and about 49,000 reservists.

The government also aims to nearly triple annual volunteer intake to 40,000 by 2031, a goal that will test whether the new service model can succeed where previous recruitment efforts fell short.

Pistorius urged lawmakers to back the reform, calling it "a decisive step for our ability to defend ourselves," and stressed that "our allies are looking to us" to deliver on Germany's commitments.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz, a conservative who has argued that Germany should field Europe's strongest conventional army, has framed the overhaul as a core element of the country's broader Zeitenwende, or turning point, in defense policy. The bill now moves to the Bundesrat, Germany's upper house, where approval is expected before the end of the year.

Public confidence gap

Germany's acceleration on missile defense and military reform mirrors wider shifts in European public opinion about security and defense.

A survey conducted by polling group Cluster 17 in nine EU countries and published earlier in December by Le Grand Continent found that concern about a potential conflict with Russia is widespread.

In Germany, 51% of respondents said the likelihood of war with Russia in the coming years was high or very high. The figure was highest in Poland, at 77%, while the average across all nine countries surveyed was also 51%.

Yet the poll also revealed limited confidence in national defense capabilities. Sixty-nine percent of respondents across the nine countries said their nation would be "not at all" or "not likely" capable of defending itself against Russian aggression.

France, the EU's only nuclear power, showed slightly greater confidence, though even there only 44% of respondents expressed faith in national defense readiness.

Terrorism, however, remains the most immediate perceived threat. Sixty-three percent of respondents rated the risk of conflict with terrorist groups as high or very high, exceeding concern about interstate war.