By Galina Korol | 2026-02-27

The map of the war in Ukraine shifts slowly. The list of the dead does not. In many sectors, weeks of fighting produce only marginal territorial gains, at a cost analysts say rivals the bloodiest wars of the 20th century.

Even where the front moves, gains are often measured in hundreds of meters, secured through repeated assault operations. By casualties per territory seized, analysts say the war is proving more costly than conflicts such as Korea or Vietnam.

To explain why, military analyst Oleg Zhdanov points to Soviet wartime doctrine.

"Let me recall [Joseph] Stalin's historic phrase when he asked [Georgy] Zhukov: 'Who will take Berlin?' And what did Zhukov do? He sacrificed 300,000 at the Seelow Heights to break through the German defenses. No one cared that it was 300,000 personnel," he told Kontur, arguing the Russian army is repeating that approach today.

Mounting casualties

Estimating losses remains difficult because Russia tightly restricts casualty data. Since the start of the invasion, authorities have classified information about the dead, forcing analysts to rely on indirect sources.

Mediazona, working with the BBC Russian Service and volunteers, maintains a name-by-name list compiled from obituaries, regional media reports and social media posts. Still, the project’s authors emphasize that "not every death becomes public knowledge."

As of February 25, 2026, the database listed over 200,000 dead Russian servicemen.

Broader estimates suggest far higher numbers. A January study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) put total military casualties on both sides -- killed, wounded and missing -- near 2 million. Researchers estimated up to 325,000 Russian troops killed and roughly 1.2 million total Russian casualties.

"No major power has sustained losses comparable to these figures in any war since World War II," CSIS analysts said, pointing to Russia's slow battlefield progress.

Ukraine has also suffered heavy losses. In a February 4 interview with France 2, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said confirmed Ukrainian deaths stand at 55,000, with many more missing. CSIS estimates total Ukrainian casualties at 500,000 to 600,000, including 100,000 to 140,000 killed.

Price of progress

"At present, 47 conflicts of varying intensity are occurring worldwide," said Serhii Kuzan, director of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center. He told Kontur the Russia-Ukraine war remains Europe's largest conflict since World War II.

He noted that the combination of massive losses and minimal territorial gains makes the war unusual in modern history.

Open-source data show Russian forces in January captured an average of 7.9 square kilometers (3.05 square miles) per day, or 245 square kilometers (95 square miles) for the month -- the lowest rate since April 2025.

Despite years of offensives, Russia has occupied only 21.1% of Donetsk region, while 21.5% remains unoccupied, Kuzan said.

The cost of those gains is steep. Ukraine's General Staff estimated Russian personnel losses at 31,710 in January alone.

"Thus, to occupy a single square kilometer, Russia spends about 129 of its fighters," Kuzan noted.

He said the war now consists of constant assaults to capture individual settlements or sectors that often lack strategic value.

War of attrition

Kuzan described Russian tactics as infiltration by small infantry groups, many of which are destroyed by drones before reaching Ukrainian positions.

"As a rule, only one or two fighters from a group of ten reach the staging area. The rest either die or sustain wounds that, due to the impossibility of evacuation, often become irreversible," he said.

Such conditions can produce a killed-to-wounded ratio of one to two in some sectors.

"If this was once called 'cannon fodder,' then now it is probably 'drone fodder,'" journalist and Freedom of Russia Legion veteran Alexei Baranovsky told Kontur.

Even those who reach Ukrainian lines face grim odds.

"A firefight begins. And holding a defensive position is easier than crawling. Therefore, the loss ratio is simply colossal. Different experts cite different figures, like 1:10 or 1:20. Generally, it may vary across different sectors of the front, but the principle remains the same everywhere: it is a colossal disproportion," Baranovsky said.

Kuzan argued such losses do not automatically threaten the Kremlin's ability to continue the war.

"These casualties create serious long-term threats to the regime's stability, but its logic is not to end the war, but to manage those risks in the short term," he said, adding that authoritarian systems can suppress the political impact of losses for years.

Zhdanov again drew parallels to the Soviet experience, saying wartime sacrifice was turned into a source of pride rather than mourning.

"When the figures began to emerge, showing that up to 50 million people died in the Second World War -- 25 million of them in the Soviet Union -- the political leadership ensured that we took pride in those numbers. We didn't grieve; we marched with posters," he said.

According to Zhdanov, modern Russian leadership follows the same pattern.

"The 'Immortal Regiment' and the slogan 'We can do it again' are not about honoring the fallen; they are about turning casualties into a legend," he said.

He warned, however, that ideology alone cannot sustain a war indefinitely.

"An empire can collapse either through military defeat or economic failure. There are no other criteria," he said.

Baranovsky likewise argued that Russia's manpower depends heavily on financial incentives.

"It must be understood that those fighting today are mercenaries motivated by high pay. But as the economic situation in Russia worsens -- and it is worsening -- it will become increasingly difficult to trade rubles for lives," he said.