By Murad Rakhimov | 2025-06-13

TASHKENT -- Russian officials refuse to say how many servicemen have died in Ukraine, but the printing presses might. As the Kremlin suppresses independent reporting and conceals its battlefield losses, a revealing paper trail is coming to light.

Russia's Ministry of Labor and Social Protection has quietly ordered more than 307,900 state-issued identification (ID) documents for the families of troops killed in action since 2022, the independent news outlet Verstka reported in May.

These documents, formal proofs of loss, are given to widows and other relatives to confirm their eligibility for government benefits. They are bureaucratic acknowledgments of deaths the government refuses to publicly count.

Agency IDs

From 2022 to early 2025, the Labor Ministry ordered more than 1.56 million ID documents for combat veterans. The peak came in 2023, with more than 800,000 for veterans and more than 250,000 for bereaved families. Orders fell sharply in 2024 but are rising again.

So far in 2025, the government has ordered more than 357,000 documents -- 317,500 for veterans, plus 40,200 for disabled veterans and for relatives of dead troops.

The ministry has distributed documents to 11 federal agencies, with the Defense Ministry receiving the most -- 744,897 -- followed by the Labor Ministry itself and Interior Ministry.

While such procurement existed before, volumes were significantly lower, Verstka reported. Orders for the Defense Ministry were previously much smaller, and the number of documents for families of fallen troops had been declining annually.

The records do not specify how many documents were issued to troops involved in the invasion of Ukraine or to their families.

"The war isn't over, and those ordering the forms know the number of veterans will grow. Under-ordering now just means more work for them later," Alexander Kim, an exiled Russian rights activist and blogger, told Kontur.

History lessons for Putin

Russian public opinion on the war remains contradictory, Alisher Ilkhamov, director of Central Asia Due Diligence in London, said.

"On one hand, Levada Center polls show that most Russians support [President Vladimir] Putin's policies and the war he started," Ilkhamov told Kontur.

"On the other hand, the same polls show that 61% of Russians support ending the war and starting peace talks. Sentiment has not changed much lately, but as losses pile up and the economic situation worsens, public opinion in Russia may swing against the war."

GDP growth is expected to fall from 4.3% to 1% in 2024 and 0.7% in 2025, he said. With oil prices down and the sovereign wealth fund nearly drained, he said the Kremlin may struggle to fund the war or lure new recruits.

Some provinces have already decided to lower the one-time payments to men who sign enlistment contracts with the Ministry of Defense.

Russian authorities are now weighing whether to divert more resources to defend domestic targets such as airfields, oil depots and key industrial sites.

Mounting casualties and infrastructure concerns could weaken Russia's ability to sustain offensive operations in Ukraine, Ilkhamov said.

"Casualty numbers alone won't change how the international community views the war. But Ukraine's recent success in destroying Russian strategic aircraft could prompt the West to send long-range weapons more confidently," he said.

Putin is unlikely to change course, fearing that any sign of compromise could threaten his hold on power, according to Ilkhamov.

"If history teaches us anything, we should remember how World War II ended. Despite massive losses and the attrition of the Wehrmacht and of economic resources, Hitler refused to negotiate or surrender until his death," he said.

Ilkhamov does not rule out a symbolic exit like the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan (1979–1989) -- declaring victory and leaving. But he views that as less likely than a prolonged war ending in Russia's defeat.

What are Russia's actual losses?

By February, Russia had lost an estimated 783,000 troops in Ukraine, including 172,000 killed, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. That is roughly the population of cities like Norilsk or Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk.

Another 376,000 were disabled -- comparable to the population of Tver or of Bryansk.

About 976,000 Russians have served in the war, meaning more than half have been killed or wounded, the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates.

In May, the UK Ministry of Defense released higher figures, estimating about 950,000 Russian casualties based on military intelligence.

Russia suffered an estimated 160,000 casualties in the first four months of 2025. If the pace continues, it could be the deadliest year since the war began.

As of May, Russian forces held less than 20% of Ukraine, mostly territory seized in 2014 or early 2022. At current rates, analysts say it could take 230 years and more than 100 million troops to capture the rest.

On June 5, Meduza reported that Russian courts have received between 30,000 and 40,000 claims to declare servicemen dead or missing since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Discrepancies in casualty figures stem from varying definitions and reporting standards, Anvar Nazirov, a political analyst in Tashkent, said.

"First, Western estimates include both the dead and wounded. And 'wounded' can mean someone with minor injuries who's temporarily out of action," Nazirov told Kontur.

The Labor Ministry's print orders for documents include not only those it has issued already but also documents yet to come, and "combat veterans" can include those stationed in the conflict zone who did not see combat, he said.

"As for ID documents for families of the dead, they're issued only after an official confirmation of death. And in Russia, not all cases are immediately recorded or recognized. So the discrepancy comes down to differences in methodology, bureaucracy and, of course, the government's policy of concealing losses."