By Olha Chepil | 2026-05-14

One strike. Eighty percent of all satellites in low Earth orbit gone. Banks down. GPS gone. Civil aviation in crisis. Welcome to the scenario American military commanders are actively war-gaming.

US Space Command calls it a "space Pearl Harbor." Russia, according to American intelligence, may be working to make it possible.

General Stephen Whiting, head of US Space Command (SPACECOM), confirmed the threat in an interview with The Times.

"They are potentially thinking about placing on orbit a nuclear anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon, which would put at risk all satellites in low Earth orbit," Whiting said.

SPACECOM recently concluded classified command post exercises modeling a Russian nuclear space attack as a worst-case scenario. The exercises brought together representatives from Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the Pentagon, the US Department of Energy and NASA, along with more than 60 defense companies.

A sledgehammer in the server room

The consequences of such an attack would reach far beyond military applications. Serhii Kuzan, military analyst and director of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, told Kontur that a nuclear detonation in orbit would destroy the entire Starlink network along with internet infrastructure, satellite communications and banking systems globally. For Ukraine, the stakes are particularly direct: Starlink communications are central to Armed Forces operations at the front.

"This would mean the collapse of the precision-guided weapons system," Kuzan said. "It would be as if someone walked into a server room with a sledgehammer and started smashing everything."

Today more than 12,000 satellites orbit Earth, compared to just dozens when the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits weapons of mass destruction in orbit, was signed. That gap between the treaty's scope and current technological reality multiplies the potential consequences exponentially.

The physics problem

A nuclear detonation in space works differently than one on Earth. With no atmosphere, there is no shock wave and no physical blast. The damage comes from electromagnetic pulses and radiation — streams of charged particles that knock out electronics and reduce satellites to what Oleksiy Izhak, an analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, calls "dead scrap metal."

"A nuclear explosion in space makes little military sense," Izhak said. "There is no shock wave, and the impact is limited to electronics."

Izhak also noted a basic logistical problem: the vast distances between satellites at different orbital altitudes mean a weapon would need to be positioned extremely close to its target before detonation — which makes conventional anti-satellite weapons a simpler option.

Deterrence, not deployment

Independent space analyst Andrii Kolesnyk, a former advisor to the Chairman of the State Space Agency of Ukraine, sees the nuclear space discussion primarily as an information operation -- a tool of psychological pressure.

"The Russian Federation finds it advantageous to raise this issue repeatedly to keep potential adversaries on edge and demonstrate a readiness to go to the ultimate extreme," Kolesnyk told Kontur.

He considers the likelihood of actual deployment low, in part because Russia's own allies would be at risk. China operates its own orbital station, which would be as vulnerable as any other platform to the effects of a nuclear detonation in space.

"It is unlikely that Russia would decide on a step that could damage, among other things, the Chinese orbital station," Kolesnyk said.

Russia is simultaneously pursuing an ambitious civil and military space expansion. Russian authorities have approved a space development program worth approximately 4–4.5 trillion RUB ($44–49 billion) through 2036, with half directed toward a national space project focused on expanding satellite constellations and developing reusable rocket technology.

That investment reflects a strategic asymmetry.

"Russia will not be able to match the scale of the American satellite system in the coming decades, which is precisely why the logic of strategic deterrence persists," Kuzan said.

The Pentagon first briefed Congress on Russia's potential nuclear ASAT plans in February 2024. In May 2024, Russia launched a satellite into low Earth orbit that US military officials assess as a component of an anti-satellite weapons system.

Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has warned that nuclear risk globally has reached its highest level since the Cold War, calling on states to strictly adhere to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

"Humanity could be set back 50 to 60 years," Kolesnyk wrote on X in April.