By Olha Chepil | 2024-03-14

KYIV -- Russian President Vladimir Putin has again threatened to use nuclear weapons if Russia's sovereignty or independence are threatened.

In an interview with state media that aired March 13, Putin lauded Moscow's nuclear arsenal as the most advanced in the world.

The Kremlin has touted its nuclear prowess throughout its two-year offensive in Ukraine, last month warning Western countries there was a "real" risk of nuclear catastrophe if they escalated the conflict.

"Our triad, the nuclear triad, it is more modern than any other triad," Putin said in a wide-ranging interview with state media, referring to Russia's three-pronged arsenal of weapons launched from land, sea and air.

"Only we and the Americans actually have such triads. And we have advanced much more here," he said.

Such Russian claims of superior weaponry have been repeatedly disproved in fighting in Ukraine, where Ukrainian-made drones and missiles have sunk Russian warships and US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) have decimated Russian units.

Putin's latest nuclear saber rattling follow reports last month alleging Russia's desire to send a nuclear weapon into space.

ABC News and The New York Times quoted unidentified officials saying that Russia was developing a nuclear, space-based anti-satellite weapon.

According to officials quoted in the Times, Russia has not yet deployed such a capability.

The White House February 15 confirmed that Russia is developing a space-based anti-satellite weapon that is "troubling" but said it poses no immediate threat to people on Earth.

The Russian weapon was "space-based," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby confirmed. But he would not comment on reports in US media that it was either nuclear-capable or nuclear powered.

Such a weapon would breach the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which both Russia and the United States are parties to -- and which bans the deployment of nuclear weapons in space, said Kirby.

Intimidation and extortion

While Moscow denied the "malicious" and "unfounded" claims, analysts say Putin is no doubt relishing the implications of such accusations.

"Russia has adopted its tried-and-true tactic of intimidation and raising of the stakes," Serhiy Kuzan, director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, told Kontur.

"It's saying to the West: you're not going to do anything to me; instead, come on and meet my demands because the consequences for you could be much worse."

"But the extortion isn't working," Kuzan added.

Satellites could be the target of any potential Russian nuclear weapons in space.

About 8,000 satellites are in different orbits, said Andriy Kolesnik, an independent specialist on space activities and former adviser to the chairman of the State Space Agency of Ukraine.

A majority -- over 6,000 -- belong to telecom companies, while the others are military satellites, he told Kontur.

Everyone uses satellite data in his or her day-to-day life, from checking weather forecasts to using Global Positioning System (GPS) maps on mobile phones, said Kolesnik.

From a military standpoint, satellites provide intelligence access to the territory along the front: they can track the adversary's movement, the movement of vehicles and the aftermath of attacks.

If the Russians launch a nuclear weapon into orbit, it could destroy one-third of all satellites, Kolesnik said.

"It will simply burn up all the devices nearby in orbit," he said.

The aftermath of such an attack could have serious repercussions on communications capabilities and on critical infrastructure, including electrical power stations, he said.

Nuclear threats

The Outer Space Treaty was born after the United States and the Soviet Union carried out nuclear testing in space more than 50 years ago.

"[The treaty] has Russia's signature on it, but for Russia that may not be an obstacle," said Kolesnik.

Russia's repeated use of nuclear threats since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine is concerning.

In 2023, Putin suspended Russia's participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the last agreement limiting the sizes of the nuclear arsenals held by the United States and Russia.

Following the news reports last month, analysts are now thinking about the nature of Russia's space nuclear weapons and their feasibility.

This kind of weapon could be deployed using an ordinary spacecraft such as a satellite -- the satellite's cargo would be the nuclear weapon, said Kolesnik.

"We're most likely talking about a satellite that has a nuclear reactor on board," he said. "This is a small reactor that is supposed to power the onboard systems, including the potential weapon that may be placed on the satellite."

"Russia has always invested huge amounts of money in 'Star Wars,'" Kolesnik said. "You can expect anything from the Russians."