By Olha Chepil | 2023-12-06

KYIV -- NATO and European Union (EU) officials are raising concerns that Russia could take advantage of instability in the Balkans for its own benefit.

European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen in late October visited the region to ascertain whether the countries that aspire to join the EU are committed to it and are prepared to follow the path to accession.

The EC is part of the EU's executive branch.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH), Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Serbia November 19-22.

The Western Balkans, which are strategically important for NATO, are facing a number of challenges, he noted.

"We are concerned by secessionist and divisive rhetoric, as well as malign foreign interference -- including from Russia," Stoltenberg said November 20 at a joint news conference in Sarajevo with Borjana Krišto, prime minister of BH.

On November 16, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on 10 individuals and 20 entities from Russia, Serbia, BH, Montenegro and North Macedonia with the goal of limiting Moscow's influence in the Balkans.

After the breakup of Yugoslavia (1990-1992), the Balkans were decimated by a series of wars that took about 130,000 lives in Bosnia, Croatia, Kosovo and Serbia.

To this day, the embers of past conflicts still smolder -- and Russia could use them for its own interests, said Kateryna Shymkevich, a historian and director of Ukraine's Analytical Center for Balkan Studies.

"The degree of tension has now risen so high that the region's Western partners are rather worried about Russia's activities intensifying in the Balkans. War could erupt there at any time," she told Kontur.

The breakup of Yugoslavia, in which pro-Russian Serbia was the most powerful and populous component, dealt a major blow to Moscow.

Now, the Kremlin is continuing covert operations to disrupt the region, which divert the West's attention and resources away from Ukraine and keep the region under its influence.

"In undermining the situation, Russia is holding these countries within its sphere of influence so as to cooperate with them economically and politically," said Oleksandr Chupak, director of economic programs of the Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Research think tank.

"But the main thing is to keep them out of the EU's sphere of influence," he told Kontur. "Something similar happened with Ukraine before the 2014 war."

Serbia and Kosovo

The most dangerous potential flashpoint in the region is between Serbia and Kosovo. Russia sides with Serbia in refusing to recognize Kosovo's independence and has been a close partner for centuries.

Serbia has long sought to balance its ties to Moscow with its aspirations to join the EU, which have been delayed for 14 years and will be a key issue in local and early parliamentary elections in December.

Therefore, further fracturing the situation is one of Russian President Vladimir Putin's strategic goals, according to observers.

"There is tension there, and Russia is trying to sustain that tension," Chupak said. "It could evolve into a civil war or some sort of confrontation. That will benefit Russia because it will be a problem for Europe, NATO and the United States."

Recent incidents on the Kosovo-Serbia border have created more than the usual tension that existed in the past, prompting NATO in November to increase its military contingent there by 1,000 personnel.

"Moscow doesn't need to unleash a full-scale war in the Balkans -- it's enough to disrupt the region politically and put up substantial barriers to its integration into the EU," said Boris Varga, a Serbian political analyst and journalist.

Russia has exerted a strong political influence over Serbia since 2014, he said. In particular, Moscow backs the so-called "Serbian World" -- an analogue to the Kremlin-promoted idea of a "Russian World" -- which aims to unite in former Yugoslavia all the territories where ethnic Serbs live.

Portraits of Putin are a staple at pro-Russia demonstrations, and Varga said he recently scrubbed the letter Z -- a symbol of support for Russia's war in Ukraine -- off the elevator in his apartment building.

This is all the result of pro-Russia propaganda in the Balkans, he said.

"Any destabilization of the EU's sensitive zone of influence, especially in the Western Balkans, is good for Russia," he told Kontur. "Since the annexation of Crimea and the war in the Donbas region, Russia has been persistently spreading its influence in the Balkans and particularly in Serbia."

BH, Republika Srpska

Russia also has an interest in undermining BH, which is considered one of the most troubled countries in Europe.

Instead of a single head of state, the country has a three-member presidency consisting of one Bosniak, one Croat and one Serb.

At the same time, the country includes two entities: the pro-Russian Republika Srpska and the Federation of BH, each of which has its own president and cabinet.

"Russia is investing money in fomenting instability. It supports radical movements that express a desire to secede or for Republika Srpska to gain more power," Chupak said.

Milorad Dodik, president of ethnic Serb-dominated Republika Srpska, promotes breaking away from BH and joining Serbia.

Dodik is a key figure for the Kremlin in the Western Balkans who has blocked sanctions against Russia and is entirely dependent on the Kremlin, say observers.

The United States added him to its sanctions list in early 2022.

"There's currently an EU peacekeeping contingent in Bosnia that's trying to calm the parties there and prevent them from going to war. But that danger is still there and could erupt at any time," Chupak said.

What is Russia doing in the Balkans?

Russia is taking a "comprehensive" approach in the Western Balkans relying mainly on propaganda and disinformation that are based on the historic and religious ties between the region and Russia.

In its messaging, "Russia puts out narratives along the lines of 'we're Slavic peoples,' in Serbia and Montenegro, for example. The Kremlin also uses the Orthodox Church to destabilize the country and the region as a whole," Shymkevich the historian said.

Playing on the feelings of the faithful in the Balkans has always been an instrument for igniting conflicts, she added.

Russia is also operating through the media.

In Serbia, the majority of the information and media space is under the influence of Russian media magnates or of institutions purchased with Russian capital.

"Through its pro-Russia media, Russia shows the 'decadent West' and describes NATO as a bloc that is waging aggressive, active wars, but at the same time, Russia is portrayed as the only fortress of the Orthodox faith, the upholder of Christian values and supporter of spiritual Slavic traditions," Shymkevich said.

Another area where Russia is working in the Western Balkans is the cultural and humanitarian sphere. Russia is opening representative offices as NGOs under the umbrella name of Russian House.

"They're mostly in Montenegro and Serbia. They act as the biggest rebroadcasters of Russian propaganda and Russian interests in the region," Shymkevich added.