By Olha Chepil | 2023-12-11

KYIV -- The start of winter has already created difficulties for both Ukrainian and Russian forces as the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine approaches the end of its second calendar year.

Along the entire 1,200km-long front line, Ukrainian troops have switched to active defense as most offenses grind to a halt.

"In winter, it is best to conduct defensive battles and trench warfare, and the Ukrainian defense forces will most likely do this throughout the winter across at least three bridgeheads," Alexander Kovalenko, a military and political correspondent with InfoResist in Odesa, told Kontur.

Ukraine will switch to trench warfare at the Donetsk bridgehead, in the Liman-Kupyansk area and partly in Zaporizhzhia province. However, the Ukrainian offensive will most likely continue on the Left Bank in Kherson province, according to Kovalenko.

Even on the defensive in a harsh winter, the Ukrainian army produces good results, Ivan Kirichevsky, a Kyiv-based military observer with Defense Express, told Kontur.

"Ukrainian troops are well prepared for defense. This is evident in the number of Russians killed daily. The number of Russians killed or wounded per day is holding either around a thousand or often jumps over a thousand."

"This [high casualty rate] is occurring even though the Russians are moving in small infantry units," said Kirichevsky.

The Russian army cannot yet achieve noticeable breakthroughs, despite its advantage in troops and materiel -- even in Avdiivka in Donetsk province, which in recent months has become a key point on the front, according to Kirichevsky.

"For two months in a row, the front line remains largely unchanged. In other words, even if the Russians have some progress near Avdiivka, it is still not where they need it. They wanted to encircle, not just to move forward," he said.

Blackouts

Winter tests more than soldiers' strength -- it also adds to the problems facing Ukraine's civilian population.

Power companies have not managed to restore everything since Russian attacks on infrastructure last year, and their capacity to generate and transmit electricity is just enough to meet the peak demand forecast for the winter, said Andrian Prokip, an energy analyst with the Ukrainian Institute of the Future.

Any destruction of infrastructure will mean another power outage, he said.

"My baseline forecast is that the winter will essentially be like last year, where we will live with blackouts" though it won't be as bad as last November, Prokip told Kontur.

Last winter, Russian missile strikes destroyed more than 50% of Ukraine's electrical infrastructure, leaving some major cities without power at a time when air temperatures dropped to -20° Celsius.

"The equipment failure rate in Ukraine is high. There are no reserves. And last year's repairs were done as quickly as possible. In terms of available capacity, there is just as much as we need, but no more," said Prokip.

However, Ukrainian air defenses are mightier this year, many power companies have stocked up on spare parts, and the experience gained last year will help, he said.

"Power grid workers have experience from last winter -- they know what to do in different scenarios and outages in order to recover faster."

"Plus, they have experience in managing the power system during shelling -- something that came in very handy last year," said Prokip.

Invasion of the Shaheds

Rather than the massive missile strikes of last year, Russia will mainly use Iranian-made kamikaze drones to attack Ukraine this winter, say analysts.

In June, British intelligence reported that Russia had begun receiving large shipments of drones from Iran via the Caspian Sea.

At a fraction of the price of missiles, the Shahed drones do not require an on-board computer and each barrage tests the strength of Ukrainian air defense.

"The Russians have probably adjusted their strategy. They made a radical bet on Shahed drones. With the massive number of Shahed drones, the Russians are now creating problems for Ukrainian air defense's safety cushion," said Kirichevsky.

Over the past three months Russia has unleashed about 1,300 Shahed kamikaze drones against Ukrainian cities, according to Kirichevsky.

"This may be a deliberate strategy. On the one hand, they are trying to damage our critical infrastructure using relatively cheap and widespread means of destruction."

"The Russians themselves can produce 200 units per month at their own production facilities -- and they also have supplies from abroad," said Kirichevsky.