By Olha Chepil | 2024-04-10

KYIV -- The Kremlin is building up its forces, conducting a covert draft and forming new military units, observers say, as Kyiv seeks weapons and ammunition to bolster its defenses.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on April 3 said Moscow is constantly building up its military power and is willing to pay a "very high price" in Ukraine.

"We see how they are receiving ammunition and weapons from North Korea and Iran," he said before a NATO foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels.

"We see how Russia has been able to put their economy on a war footing. And we see how Russia, Moscow, is willing to pay a very high price in terms of men and material in marginal gains on the Ukrainian battlefield with little to no respect for human lives."

'We need help now': Zelenskyy

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned of a potential Russian offensive this spring.

"We share all the information with our partners, and we tell them that Russia will be preparing the counteroffensive. And it could be the end of May or June," he said in an interview with CBS News near the front line on March 28.

"We need help now," Zelenskyy urged. "We need support now to train certain brigades that will have to battle for our land, especially during the counteroffensive that Russia wants to start."

The pace of the offensive that Moscow launched back in September has now slowed on the front, and the Russian army is trying to create favorable conditions for a new a larger-scale offensive, according to analysts.

"Over the summer they will form new units, finish building units that have not yet been fully formed, and approximately in the second half of this year, the Russian army will really be able to begin offensive actions," said Alexander Kovalenko, an Odesa-based military and political correspondent with the InfoResist website.

The impending offensive is heralded by the troops amassing on the border and the appearance of an appropriate strike force of 50,000–100,000, which has increased to 200,000–300,000, he told Kontur.

Russian forces have to contend with handling "an enormous number of personnel and vehicles, setting up camps and working out the logistics," Kovalenko said. "This process of preparing for the offensive could take the Russians up to three months."

Possible targets

All the while, Russia continues to build up its troop numbers.

For 2024, the Russian Ministry of Defense has envisioned adding about 500,000 troops without announcing a mass, emergency-sized draft.

On April 1, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree for an ostensibly routine springtime draft that will last until mid-July and call up 150,000 Russians.

Russia ordinarily conducts two drafts a year.

That number, 150,000, will be insufficient to take the main targets -- Kharkiv and Kyiv, analysts contend.

Even taking a village stretched the Russians to the limit, observed Ivan Kirichevsky, a Kyiv-based military analyst with Defense Express.

"The Russian army needed 120,000 men to capture Avdiivka," Kirichevsky told Kontur, referring to a village in Donetsk province that fell in February. Russia, trying to capitalize on that costly victory, could be hoping for a "significant breakthrough," he added.

However, any Russian advances will be minimal and costly, he predicted.

The most that Russia can expect to accomplish is to "enter Chasiv Yar district or threaten Vuhledar," he said, if Ukraine suffers ammunition shortages.

The Russian army still lacks adequate resources for a large offensive against Kharkiv or Kyiv, said Kirichevsky.

However, in terms of Russia's new offensive, its objectives are to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, he said.

If Russia makes headway in Donbas, its next priority is to expand its presence on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Zaporizhzhia province, he said.

Ukraine holds all of the right bank but has only a foothold on the left bank.

Multi-pronged attack

Russia will probably attack from two or three directions at once, said military analyst Oleksiy Hetman, a reservist major and veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war from Kyiv.

"I'm certain the Russians haven't decided precisely where they're planning offensive actions. Two, or preferably three, prongs are typical. One of these will be the most powerful, whereas two of them could be called diversions," he told Kontur.

Sumy province could be a Russian target, especially if Moscow intensifies its conscription efforts, he said.

"The northeastern border is one of the possible targets," he added. "The probability is high. There has been a recent increase in [Russian] shelling of the border area, an increase in missile attacks on the defensive line."

However, Ukrainian forces in Sumy province are busily reinforcing their defense lines and mining the Russian army's approach zone.

"There are thousands of kilometers of fortifications in three lines. If we consider the strength in this territory, it's even more formidable than what the Russian army planted near Donetsk [in preparation for Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive]," said Kirichevsky.

The United States and allies intend to double down on finding supplies for Ukraine, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said April 4 after meetings at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

"We know what the needs are: air defenses, artillery, munitions... We're also looking for ways to make sure that we can help Ukraine, in the mid-term and the long term," he said.

Hybrid warfare

In addition to the Russian army's offensive, analysts expect hybrid warfare from Russia this spring.

Moscow is seeking to destabilize Ukraine primarily through information and psychological operations aimed at stoking panic, exhaustion and discontent among the population.

Russia may also increase attempts to smuggle sabotage and reconnaissance units into Ukrainian territory.

"They intend to attack both physically and through propaganda," Kirichevsky warned. "But we also have the capacity to rebuff this. Our troops have learned how to make fortifications, lay minefields and ensure that any advance by Russian vehicles is shot up by artillery and drones."

"And we know, like them, how to fight on the information front," he said.