By Olha Chepil | 2024-02-12

KYIV -- NATO countries are using their latest major military exercise to prepare their forces for full combat readiness amid concerns about an increasingly aggressive Russia, say observers.

NATO on January 24 kicked off Steadfast Defender 2024, its largest exercise since the Cold War.

Every NATO member state as well as Sweden, a candidate for NATO accession, is taking part.

The maneuvers are set to cover European territory from Norway to Romania and involve about 90,000 personnel and at least 1,100 combat vehicles.

The exercise will take place in several locations, with associated exercises running until May 31, NATO said in a statement.

Steadfast Defender 2024 "will be the first large scale NATO exercise where new defense plans will be put into action," the statement said.

"It will show that NATO can conduct and sustain complex multi-domain operations over several months, across thousands of kilometers, from the High North to Central and Eastern Europe, and in any conditions."

The exercise will also highlight NATO's ability to deploy forces rapidly from North America and other parts of the alliance to reinforce the defense of Europe, it added.

Preparing for all scenarios

The drills come as European politicians and military leaders have increasingly expressed concern of a potential war with Russia. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have agreed to create defensive zones on their eastern borders.

"Many military leaders inside NATO and top political leaders engage in public rhetoric about the risks of a Russian attack," said Serhiy Kuzan, a military analyst and director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation. "They name different dates -- from three to 10 years."

Dutch Adm. Rob Bauer, chair of NATO's Military Committee, for example called on alliance members to prepare for a potential war with Russia within the next 20 years, The Telegraph reported January 18.

"Russia needs a shift change from Ukraine, and then the Russians can attack another country," Kuzan told Kontur.

"Soldiers always prepare for the worst-case scenario. Even 10% is considered a serious probability. Not high but a possibility that cannot be ruled out," he said.

"These NATO exercises are like the Ukrainian exercises in 2022. Those were the final and very successful stage of clandestine mobilizing preparations for a full-scale war," Ivan Kirichevsky, a Kyiv-based military expert with Defense Express, told Kontur.

"Great Britain is using 40% of all its ground forces for these exercises," he said. "It's not just about drawing conclusions. It will implement the conclusions it has already drawn."

The size and timing of the exercises are telling, said Taras Zhovtenko, a political scientist and member of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Public Council.

"This is evidence that the alliance really views a full-scale conflict with Russia as likely," he told Kontur.

The Russians will most likely pursue hybrid warfare to exploit situations in highly vulnerable regions, he said.

"The Kremlin will choose its tools based on an assessment of vulnerability -- whether to act in a purely hybrid manner, as it is doing now on the border with Finland, or to take a risk and use some part of its military, or to act through a border provocation," he said, referring to the Kremlin's funneling of migrants to the border of Finland.

"All these scenarios are connected, including in relation to certain political considerations," he added.