By Galina Korol | 2025-04-29

KYIV -- In the fall of 2025, Russian and Belarusian forces will stage Zapad-2025, a sweeping set of military exercises along NATO's eastern flank. For many military observers, the drills are a grim reminder: a similar show of force masked preparations for Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine just three years ago.

The exercises show "Belarus is now becoming a source of threats and a staging ground for aggression against other countries," Dmytro Gromakov, deputy director of the International Center for Countering Russian Aggression, said earlier this year, according to a Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) April report.

"Exercises are the most acceptable way to relocate troops, to concentrate them in a certain area and to create a grouping of troops," Ukraine's army chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, noted.

"In fact, this is how it started in 2022," he told the Ukrainian outlet LB.ua, the website reported April 9, in a reference to the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

For now NATO does not see any direct threats and says that Russia lacks the forces and resources for a new large-scale attack. Nevertheless, the alliance is closely monitoring the situation and is prepared to respond if necessary.

"At this point, I really don't want to go into details about how we'll respond, but this is not just another routine event -- all such efforts are taken seriously," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said, as quoted by LRT on April 4.

NATO's response will depend on "what we observe on the other side, how many Russian and Belarusian forces are activated during the drills, and this will definitely not go unnoticed," said Budrys.

'That could be a problem'

As things stand, the Belarusian army does not pose a threat to any European country, Roman Svitan, a reservist colonel in the Ukrainian military, flight instructor and military analyst, told Kontur. Belarus's geopolitical position is not particularly strong, it being a "balcony looking out on Europe," he said.

"To the north are the three Baltic countries, to the west is Poland and Ukraine is to the south, so it's essentially half surrounded," he said.

The main threat would come from the Russian army if it moves into Belarus and uses it as a bridgehead for offensive operations, said Svitan. The risk would become serious if Russia deployed more than 100,000 troops there, he warned, saying "that could be a problem." Such a deployment is technically possible, he noted, since Russia has prepared the Moscow and Leningrad military districts to impose that kind of pressure.

However, he considers such a scenario likely only "if combat ceases on the eastern front" in Ukraine.

Otherwise, "there will be no problems whatsoever" for the West, and Russian deployments for the exercises would likely be limited to a maximum of 10,000-20,000 military personnel, he said.

'More offensive weapons'

Belarus is steadily losing what remains of its sovereignty and becoming another "enclave of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's," raising the risk for its western neighbors.

"It's important to understand that regimes like Putin's and [Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr] Lukashenka's don't need any genuine grounds or incidents to initiate combat," Uladzimir Zhyhar, spokesman of BelPol, an organization created by former Belarusian security personnel who oppose the Lukashenka regime, told Kontur.

"In theory, there are different ways things could play out," he said.

Belarusian propaganda, fully aligned with Lukashenka's interests, portrays Zapad-2025 as defensive drills against potential NATO aggression, said Zhyhar.

"But again, the .... missiles being brought in by Russia don't show the defensive character that exercises typically would. Instead, they're bringing in more offensive weapons rather than purely defensive ones," he said.

The militarization of Belarus

Analysts are keeping an eye on the intensifying militarization of Belarus and its military-industrial complex.

"Belarus is now undergoing an unprecedented stage of militarizing its economy," Zhyhar said.

After the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia invested about $1.5 billion in the Belarusian economy to modernize factories and build new ones, all focused on weapon production, BelPol says.

"All enterprises under Belarus's Ministry of Industry and the State Authority for Military Industry are actively involved in one way or another in fulfilling Russian state defense purchases," Zhyhar said.

Belarus has begun producing artillery shells, 122mm munitions for the Grad multiple-rocket launcher and various types of drones, some already tested in Ukraine, BelPol says.

Those drones "include attack drones such as the Chekan and Mirotvorets drones, as well as reconnaissance models," Zhyhar said, adding that about 1,000 drones have been transferred to Russia.

Belarusian factories are manufacturing various calibers of munitions and various types of sights to upgrade Soviet-era armored vehicles, exclusively for Russian contracts.

By 2027–2028, Belarus's military-industrial complex will reach "basic production capacity" and produce large quantities of weapons annually, including "300,000 modernized 122mm caliber rocket projectiles for the Grad multiple-rocket launcher, "450,000 152mm caliber artillery shells" and "100,000 drones for different purposes," BelPol estimated.

Zhyhar emphasized the role of companies like Integral and the Planar holding company, which, he said, "could completely cover Russia's needs for microchips and relevant production equipment by 2027–2028."

Belarus's transformation into a weapon hub goes beyond a diplomatic challenge, say analysts.

"When we talk about an 'axis of evil,' we usually mention Iran ... Cuba or North Korea. But for some reason, no one talks about Lukashenka in this context," Zhyhar said.

Belarus deserves equal denunciation for its feverish efforts to equip the "occupying army" in Ukraine, Zhyhar said.