Security

Ukraine shatters myth of Kremlin invincibility

Outgunned Ukraine blew up strategic bombers that unsuspecting Russia had parked outdoors in the Far North and Far East. Ukraine has once again proven that nowhere is safe in Russia.

SBU drones hit enemy equipment, warehouses and manpower, each sortie erasing another Russian advantage. [SBU Telegram channel]
SBU drones hit enemy equipment, warehouses and manpower, each sortie erasing another Russian advantage. [SBU Telegram channel]

By Galina Korol |

KYIV -- Ukraine has pulled off one of its boldest feats yet in its war against Russian occupation.

Lacking its own strategic bombers, it struck deep into Russia's rear June 1. The operation, codenamed Spider's Web, destroyed or damaged 41 bombers and tore through the myth of Kremlin invulnerability.

Once the drones came soaring out of trucks that Ukraine had left outside distant Russian air bases, the bombers were defenseless.

They were parked outdoors, because Russia never expected Ukrainian weapons to reach that far.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the 'office' coordinating the operation inside Russia was based near a regional headquarters of the FSB. [Petro Shuklinov Facebook page]
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the 'office' coordinating the operation inside Russia was based near a regional headquarters of the FSB. [Petro Shuklinov Facebook page]
Ukrainian operators hid the drones in sheds, loaded them onto trucks and hired unwitting Russian truckers to transport them to prearranged addresses. [Petro Shuklinov Facebook page]
Ukrainian operators hid the drones in sheds, loaded them onto trucks and hired unwitting Russian truckers to transport them to prearranged addresses. [Petro Shuklinov Facebook page]

An effort to degrade Russian arms that began with turning the Black Sea Fleet into a "flotilla" has evolved into a campaign proving that distance, defenses and reputation offer no real shield.

Spider's Web will be studied for years, say analysts.

"No one has ever done anything like this," Petro Shuklinov, a Ukrainian serviceman, journalist and co-founder of the charity Nesemos!, told Kontur.

Under the nose of Russia's FSB

On the afternoon of June 1, reports flooded online forums: low-cost Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) drones were striking four Russian air bases: Belaya, Dyagilevo, Olenya and Ivanovo, all home to strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

Olenya is north of the Arctic Circle. Belaya is in Siberia, 4,500km from Ukiraine.

Russian war correspondents watched in shock as fire engulfed the planes that had terrorized Ukrainian cities for years.

Ukrainians similarly saw footage spread rapidly online.

Dozens of videos soon confirmed the scale of the attack. Operation Spider's Web had overwhelmed Russian defenses with its reach and precision.

According to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) prepared for more than 18 months.

"Most interesting, and this can now be said publicly, is that the 'office' for our operation on Russian territory was located right next to the Russian FSB headquarters in one of their provinces," Zelenskyy said in a video message on Telegram June 1.

Ukrainian media later identified the city as Chelyabinsk. The operation involved 117 drones and various operators working across three Russian time zones, said Zelenskyy.

Ukraine suffered no casualties and extracted all its personnel before the drone strike, said Zelenskyy.

'A Trojan horse in the guise of a truck'

Ukrainian journalists obtained rare photographs of the drones' preparation, published by Shuklinov on June 1.

According to him, success hinged on a clever delivery method: the SBU first sent FPV drones into Russia, followed by wooden sheds.

Operators hid the drones under the roofs, loaded them on trucks and hired unsuspecting Russians to haul the drones to prearranged addresses.

When the time came, operatives remotely opened the sheds and launched the drones. They had programmed them to hit bomber fuel tanks, thus maximizing the destruction.

Russia's air defenses at the bases failed. Base personnel did not help matters by overconfidently leaving the planes out in open air, as videos showed.

"The Pantsir air defense missile system is ineffective against FPV drones," Igar Tyshkevich, a political scientist, analyst and former analyst at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future, told Kontur.

Alternate weapons, even simple shotguns, "either were not available ... or they forgot to turn them on," said Tyshkevich.

'Irreversible losses'

On the morning of June 2, SBU released its damage assessment.

"As a result of the drone strikes, 41 aircraft were hit, including the A-50, Tu-95, Tu-22 M3 and Tu-160," wrote the SBU on Telegram June 2.

SBU chief Lt. Gen. Vasyl Malyuk added that 34% of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers at major air bases were destroyed, a "serious slap" to Russia's air force, government and its "terrorist identity."

The agency estimated the damage at $7 billion.

Independent analysts are still assessing satellite imagery.

The true significance lies not in the number of planes destroyed but in the loss of aircraft Russia can no longer replace, they say.

"Production of the Tu-22 and Tu-95MS does not exist in Russia," Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov, a military analyst and historian, told Kontur.

"The only thing they make is the Tu-160. And they make one per year," he said.

Zhyrokhov pointed out the asymmetry of the strike: a cheap weapon, controlled from 4,000km away, hit Russia effectively.

"That is, if we compare one of these Tu-22 or Tu-95 missile carriers, which cost a fortune, to a drone, which costs $600, then, of course, such efficiency is very, very powerful," he said.

An 'ideological slap in Russia's face'

Operation Spider's Web hit Russia's strategic aircraft and undermined the foundation of its military and political image.

The strike was indeed "very painful," because it was not just air bases that were attacked but objects associated with "Russia's nuclear triad," said Tyshkevich.

"This is a very powerful, very ideological slap in the face. The average Russian was confident that the nuclear military and space forces ... were invincible, but it turns out that they aren't," he said.

To convey the scale of the damage, Tyshkevich noted that Russia's nuclear triad included 58 Tu-95s, 16 Tu-160s and 58 Tu-22M3s, along with 10 A-50 early warning aircraft in various configurations.

The strike likely will force changes in Russia's missile strike tactics, he said.

Traditionally, Russia has relied on ground-based Iskander systems, naval groups in the Black and Caspian seas and strategic bombers.

Tyshkevich noted ongoing problems with the Iskanders and the reduced capability of the Black Sea Fleet since its retreat to Novorossiysk.

"Aircraft were the most flexible system for planning and delivering missile strikes," said Tyshkevich.

But now, "Russia will be forced to look for other options for organizing air attacks on Ukraine," he said.

Asymmetric strikes by Ukraine reduce the Russian nuclear threat and degrade Russia's international image, "especially in the so-called club of nuclear states," he said.

If the Kremlin cannot even deliver its many warheads, "how do you use them?" he asked.

Ordinary Russians will feel the consequences of Operation Spider's Web.

"The enemy was broken psychologically," said Shuklinov.

"After the destruction of the cruiser Moskva, the blowing up of the Crimean Bridge and the liquidation of Russian generals, colonels and majors deep in the rear, this operation completes the effect," he said, referring to past Ukrainian achievements in the war.

Ukraine has once again proven that nowhere is safe in Russia, he said.

"Ukrainian intelligence services can reach anywhere. Even Russia's most hardened propagandists have acknowledged the catastrophic consequences of this defeat," said Shuklinov.

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