By Olha Hembik | 2024-09-13

WARSAW -- A Russian propagandist last month accused Poland of military provocation on the border with Russia's Kaliningrad province in an attempt to further justify the militarization of the exclave.

Ilya Tumanov, a retired Russian air force pilot and a well-known figure in the Russian military aviation community, claimed on his Telegram channel in August that Warsaw was fine-tuning an attack on Kaliningrad province, Russia, according to Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.

Poland even carried out a simulated air raid directed at Kaliningrad before turning back 40km from the border, he claimed.

Poland has a 204.1km-long land border and a 32.2km-long maritime border with Russia via Kaliningrad.

Other propagandists seized on his post, spreading it on social networks and in the media.

Poland's National Defense Ministry categorically denied the reports.

The claim is the latest in a string of propaganda attacks on Poland.

On February 4, Lt. Gen. Viktor Sobolev, a member of Russia's State Duma, called on Russians to be ready for possible aggression from Poland, News.ru reported.

Shortly before that, the Russian military command warned pilots that Poland was preparing for combat in the border zone it shares with Belarus, Russia and Ukraine.

Militarization of Kaliningrad province

While Poland is no stranger to Russian propaganda, the latest accusations come amid increased security concerns following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"Russia's anti-Polish propaganda started as soon as Poland became a full-fledged member of NATO, and it intensified when [Vladimir] Putin's first presidential term began," said Jerzy Mazur of Łódź, a military analyst and retired Polish army officer who served in peacekeeping missions in Afghanistan, Iraq and Kosovo.

The effort is aimed at testing NATO's patience, Mazur told Kontur.

More recently, Russian social networks have occasionally been carrying an unbacked assertion that if NATO attacks Russia, it will certainly start in Kaliningrad province.

"Russia's attempt to vilify Poland as if it has aggressive intentions will give Russians a pretext to say that they are surrounded ... by enemies," said Stanislav Zhelikhovsky of Kyiv, a political scientist.

"For Russia this is a pretext to further militarize Kaliningrad province and Belarus and to move weapons there, including tactical nuclear weapons, as has been happening recently," Zhelikhovsky told Kontur.

Russia is seeking an excuse to build up militarily in and around Kaliningrad province, now that Sweden and Finland have joined NATO, he said.

Ukraine's ally

The militarization of Kaliningrad is also aimed at intimidating Poland, according to Piotr Kaszuwara, a war correspondent and founder of the Fundacja Przyszłość dla Ukrainy (UA Future).

"Since the start, Poland has taken it upon itself to provide Ukraine with military aid ... As a result, Russia is trying to intimidate us," Kaszuwara told Kontur.

"The Kremlin previously said that any country that provides military aid to Ukraine will be considered a party to the conflict," Kaszuwara said.

False Kremlin narratives to justify its military buildup have included accusations that Poland is fortifying its border in preparing to attack Belarus and that Poland is similarly fortifying the border along the Kaliningrad exclave in order to secure the Suwałki Gap (a segment of vulnerable Polish territory), he said.

The Kremlin reckons that the more Ukraine's allies are focused on their own defense and preoccupied with swarms of migrants and other devices of Russia's hybrid war, the less they can help Ukraine, Kaszuwara said, referring to Russia sending desperate migrants from poor countries to storm Poland's borders.

"But ...Poland will always be Ukraine's ally," he said.

"The idea that Poland wants to attack Kaliningrad is absurd," Kaszuwara said.

"But when absurd ideas are repeated over and over again ... the minds of people who fall prey to propaganda become filled with hatred for others."