By Kontur | 2024-09-19

KYIV -- As Russian President Vladimir Putin and other officials continue to use the threat of nuclear war as a scare tactic against the West, Ukraine's allies have made clear their support is unwavering.

In a bid to prevent Ukraine from gaining access to more long-range missiles that could strike military targets deep inside Russian territory, Putin last week issued yet another warning to the West.

The missiles require Western technical support and satellite guidance, meaning the Ukrainians cannot operate them alone, he noted.

"This will mean that NATO countries -- the United States and European countries -- are at war with Russia," Putin told reporters September 12, according to the Kremlin.

"And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us."

Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya echoed Putin’s comments and referenced Russia's nuclear capabilities.

"The facts are that NATO will be a direct party to hostilities against a nuclear power. I think you shouldn't forget about this and think about the consequences," he told the UN Security Council on September 13.

Since the beginning of the war, the United States and European Union have supported Ukraine, albeit with due caution, not wanting to escalate the conflict unnecessarily.

Washington has approved Ukraine's requests for the supply of High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) artillery, M1 Abrams tanks, F-16 fighter jets, and short- and then longer-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS).

Putin's bluff

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been asking for permission to use British Storm Shadow missiles and US-made ATACMS missiles to hit targets deeper inside Russia for months.

The latest request is under review, and US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer have held meetings on the topic.

UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy on September 15 accused Putin of "throwing dust up into the air."

"There's a lot of bluster. That's his modus operandi. He threatens about tanks, he threatens about missiles, he threatens about nuclear weapons," he told the BBC.

An increasing number of military analysts and foreign affairs specialists are calling Putin's bluff.

"Easing the restrictions on Western weapons will not cause Moscow to escalate," 17 former ambassadors and generals wrote in a letter to the US administration this week, The New York Times reported September 12.

"We know this because Ukraine is already striking territory Russia considers its own -- including Crimea and Kursk -- with these weapons and Moscow's response remains unchanged," it said.

In meetings at the Pentagon August 30, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov argued similarly.

Ukraine's incursion into Kursk province in early August showed that Russia's red lines were simply bluffs that had slowed the Western effort help Ukraine, he said, according to two officials who spoke to The New York Times.

'Tool of intimidation'

"For the most part, this nuclear blackmail doesn't affect the United States' support for Ukraine," said Ihor Reiterovich, head of the political and legal programs at the Ukrainian Center for Social Development.

"Russia is hoping to use this extortion to curtail assistance for Ukraine, but they aren't succeeding," he told Kontur.

"Russia has mentioned the use of nuclear weapons 30 times since the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine," he said. "If Russia got its way, the United States wouldn’t be helping Ukraine at all, and Ukraine wouldn’t have any of the things it has now."

Ihor Chalenko, a Ukrainian political analyst and head of the Center for Analysis and Strategies, said the Kremlin's nuclear weapons rhetoric is primarily a tool to apply pressure.

"Russia has many different mouthpieces that are always saying that they have these nuclear weapons and that they need to use them," he told Kontur.

"We hear messages from the Russians about, for example, the need to use a nuclear weapon somewhere in Siberia in order to show the whole world that Russia isn't joking and that no one should underestimate the Kremlin's position," he said.

"We're always hearing that from [Margarita] Simonyan [editor in chief of RT] or now again from other experts on Russian state TV," he said. "So this is actually an information campaign about using nuclear weapons as a tool of intimidation."

Although Putin holds the nuclear codes, Chalenko said, he would not dare use them.

"Russia can't use nuclear weapons for anything other than to bluff or intimidate or for information warfare," he said. "The consequences of even a single strike would be catastrophic for the Kremlin regime."

'Trafficking in fear'

Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center in Kyiv, agreed.

"[Ukraine's] strategic partners are completely aware that first of all, Russia isn't capable of using any nuclear weapon, and second of all, it won't," he told Kontur.

"It's like there's a policy: one side does the scaring and the other side pretends they're scared."

Today's Russia is using nuclear weapons as a scare tactic much more forcefully and brutally than the Soviet Union did, Omelchenko said.

"Why would Putin want to use a nuclear weapon? This is an old KGB game that was played in Soviet times... trafficking in fear."

"Russia hasn't conducted any nuclear tests since 1990," Omelchenko said. "Those weapons are already ancient. They’re 50 to 60 years old. What kind of condition are they in?"

"Russia could launch one and it might come right back and land on them," he said.

Olha Chepil contributed reporting from Kyiv.