By Galina Korol and AFP | 2024-09-30

KYIV -- By ramping up nuclear threats, Russian President Vladimir Putin is looking to deter Western countries from broadening support for Kyiv, analysts say.

But by repeatedly invoking them, he is putting himself under pressure to act on the use of nuclear weapons -- not only against Ukraine but also its NATO backers.

Putin on September 25 announced plans to broaden Russia's rules on the use of its nuclear weaponry, allowing it to unleash a nuclear response in the event of a "massive" air attack.

The announcement comes as Russia's invasion of Ukraine stretches into its third year and Kyiv seeks permission from Western allies to use long-range weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia.

Under the proposed rules, Russia would consider any attack by a non-nuclear country supported by a nuclear power as a joint attack by both.

With the revision of the doctrine, Putin wants to lower the threshold for use of nuclear weapons, said Maxim Starchak, a defense scholar at Queen's University in Canada.

"Putin counts on the introduction of an additional -- nuclear -- factor in the Ukraine war. He believes and hopes that this will work," he told AFP.

Putin has few options two and a half years into the war, a senior European military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, "Putin went all in. He therefore has little capacity for escalation," the official said.

He outlined three options at Putin's disposal: nuclear rhetoric, nuclear weapons and hybrid warfare against the West.

Ukraine crossing 'red lines'

For more than a month, Ukraine has shown that even without long-range missiles, it can strike military targets inside Russian territory.

One example was an overnight raid September 18 by Ukrainian drones on one of Russia's largest weapon depots, in Toropets, 500km from Ukraine.

There, according to various media reports, the Russians stored KN23 missiles from North Korea, missiles for Iskanders and Tochka-U tactical missile systems, guided bombs, S-300s and artillery shells.

"Renovated in 2018, this is one of Russia's largest strategic ammunition depots directly supporting its operation in Ukraine, storing more than 30,000 tonnes of ordnance," the British Defense Ministry wrote September 21 on X (formerly Twitter).

"Military experts are comparing the destruction of this depot in terms of the scope of damage with a tactical nuclear strike," Maxim Nesvitailov, a Kyiv-based political analyst, told Kontur.

Days later, overnight from September 21 to 22, Ukrainian drones set the Tikhoretsk arsenal in Krasnodar province on fire, the Ukrainian general staff said on Facebook.

"This facility is one of the occupiers' three largest ammunition storage bases and is one of the key sites in the logistics system of Russian troops," the statement said.

Also on September 21, Ukraine's Security Service struck a Russian artillery arsenal near Oktyabrsky, Tver province.

Ukraine's military previously flouted another Putin "red line" with the August 6 incursion into Kursk province.

"With Kursk, [the Kremlin] was coming out in public and trying to demand condemnation, but after the explosions of the depots, they've been quiet and trying to ignore the situation as much as possible," Nesvitailov said.

'Calculated bluff'

The notion of Putin's "red lines" has been mentioned since the very beginning of the full-scale invasion.

"[Putin] would even say that any country that interfered even minimally in the conflict would be considered a party to the conflict and could expect devastating consequences," Nesvitailov said.

These warnings only delay weapon deliveries and aid to Ukraine from its allies, analysts say.

"Everything [Putin] says goes into the air and creates a vague fear," Oleksii Izhak, an analyst at the Ukrainian National Institute for Strategic Studies, told Kontur.

However, the West's fears have been dispelled with every successful operation by the Ukrainian military.

"With every step, Ukraine is proving and demonstrating that all the red lines the Kremlin is drawing are really just [meaningless]," Ihor Chalenko, director of the Center for Analysis and Strategies, told Kontur.

Putin again tried to intimidate the West when discussion began of allowing Kyiv to use Western missiles to strike deep inside Russia.

This permission "will signify NATO's direct involvement in the conflict," Putin said September 12.

"They're just ... building up the myth that in Ukraine Russia is fighting with NATO, and indirectly with the Ukrainian state," Chalenko said in response.

'Reckless and irresponsible'

The European Union (EU) on September 26 denounced Putin's plan to authorize a nuclear response to a massive air attack on Russia as "reckless and irresponsible."

"This is just the continuation of the very irresponsible and unacceptable behavior on the side of Putin," EU foreign policy spokesman Peter Stano told reporters.

Outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called Moscow's latest "red line" a bluff, one of many by the Russian president, the London Times reported September 17.

Putin has not acted after Ukraine or the West blew past various "red lines," Stoltenberg told the Times.

"He has not done so, because he realizes that NATO is the strongest military alliance in the world. They also realize that nuclear weapons, nuclear war, cannot be won and should not be fought," Stoltenberg said. "And we have made that very clear to [Putin] several times."