By Kontur | 2025-09-12

Russia and Belarus opened sweeping war games Friday, their first joint drills since Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Running through September 16, the maneuvers extend across Belarus and Russia's north, with operations staged on land, at sea and in the air.

The Russian Defense Ministry released video of tanks, helicopters and armored vehicles moving into position, alongside ships from the Northern Fleet deploying to the Barents Sea and Arctic waters. Officials said the exercises will also rehearse aerial reconnaissance and missile strikes on ground targets.

Observers see the war games as political theater, designed to project strength even as Russia's actual capabilities remain in question.

While the main maneuvers are reportedly taking place deep inside Belarus, near the city of Barysaw, smaller units are operating closer to the borders of Poland and Lithuania.

This has fueled concerns about a potential attack on the Suwalki Gap, a narrow land corridor connecting Poland and Lithuania that is considered a vulnerable point for NATO.

"These exercises show that Putin is signaling the possibility of escalating the war if the West doesn't agree to his terms for a resolution in Ukraine,” Shota Utiashvili, the Senior Fellow at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International studies, told Kontur.

"However, after nearly four years, the world has seen Russia's actual military capabilities, making it difficult to imagine this bluff will succeed," said Utiashvili, who has over 15 years of work experience in international relations, security, EU integration and analytical fields.

He noted that Belarus has its own goals and that the drills "seem advantageous" to Belarusian strongman Alyaksandr Lukashenka.

"Belarus appears to be using these events to increase its importance in the eyes of both Russia and the West, a strategy that helps to maintain Lukashenka's regime," he said.

The exercises come just days after a series of Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace, which prompted NATO allies to scramble fighter jets in response.

Poland, Lithuania and Latvia have all heightened border security in response to the drills and recent provocations, with Poland fully closing its border with Belarus.

The Belarusian Defense Ministry confirmed that the drills would include training on "planning the use of" Russian nuclear weapons and the nuclear-capable "Oreshnik" intermediate-range ballistic missile, which Russia has pledged to provide to Belarus.

Officials have stated that this will be a simulated exercise and will not involve the physical deployment of the weapons.