By Olha Chepil | 2024-10-17

KYIV -- The Kremlin has begun shipping its newest air defense to the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula to further protect the Crimean Bridge, which connects the peninsula to continental Russia.

Ukrainian forces blew up two lanes of the bridge in October 2022, causing the Kremlin to prioritize its security. The Ukrainians hit it again with drones in July 2023.

Today the Kremlin guards the bridge with every resource it can spare.

Ukrainian watchers spotted a Pantsir S-1M anti-aircraft gun and missile system on the bridge, while Russian military personnel deployed the latest S-500 Prometheus surface-to-air missile system to Crimea, Ukrainian military intelligence stated in June.

"The Russians are very nervous," Vladislav Seleznev, a military analyst and Ukrainian army colonel, told Kontur.

Russian forces are strengthening their air defenses in the vicinity of the Crimean Bridge, creating a barrier made of various objects to block Ukrainian drones and building dams farther south, said Seleznev, who previously led the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Crimean public relations office. When the Russians seized the Crimean peninsula in 2014, he moved to Kyiv.

"They're doing everything they can to try to prevent Ukraine from demolishing the ... Crimean Bridge," he added.

Key transport corridor

Russia built the Crimean Bridge over the Kerch Strait in 2014, and use it to supply their troops fighting in Ukraine.

A ferry and the Crimean Bridge make up the main artery through which Russia transports fuel, ammunition and military vehicles, say analysts.

"If they're damaged or destroyed, transport will collapse," Seleznev told Kontur. "Russian aircraft won't be capable of carrying out such large transport shipments [as before]. And at this point they're not going to take risks with ships because they've had bad experiences."

Ukraine has sunk or disabled almost one-third of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, analysts have calculated.

The Russians have moved the main ships of the fleet to Novorossiysk on the Russian coast.

"The Black Sea flotilla, which is what we can call it now, was essentially driven out of Crimea," Ihor Chalenko, a political analyst and director of the Center for Analysis and Strategies, told Kontur.

"And the recent attacks, like the destruction of the Rostov-on-Don submarine, again underscored that Russia can't defend its own military infrastructure."

"Ukraine is taking steps toward liberating and demilitarizing the peninsula, while at the same time strengthening its future negotiating positions," he said.

Russia's 'weak point'

Ukrainian forces are now striking Russian armaments and oil facilities on the peninsula to wreck the occupiers' logistical operations.

Ukrainian Armed Forces on October 7 struck an offshore oil terminal in Feodosia, Russian-occupied Crimea, the Ukrainian general staff announced that day on its website.

Firefighters extinguished a massive fire sparked by the attack after it burned for a week, almost destroying the facility, according to local reports.

Videos posted on Russian social media last week showed a twirling column of flames erupting from the site of the terminal, while later footage showed plumes of smoke.

The Feodosia terminal is the largest in Crimea by volume of transfers of petroleum products used, including by the Russian occupying army, say Ukrainian military sources.

"Since 2014, when Russia annexed the peninsula, the Kremlin regime has done everything to turn the peninsula into an impenetrable fortress," Chalenko said.

"But in the last few years, Crimea has actually become a weak point, a weak position for Russia," he said. "Even though the peninsula has been flooded with weapons, Crimea is like an outstretched palm."

F-16s stir panic

By targeting the peninsula, especially Russian ground-based air defense (GBAD) systems, Ukraine was "preparing the ground" for future air strikes ahead of the arrival of F-16 fighter jets, Frederik Mertens, a strategic analyst at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, told Business Insider in an interview published on June 16.

"Crimea is vulnerable," he said. "The Russians have relatively limited maneuver space on the peninsula."

"[Russian President Vladimir] Putin has a lot to lose both politically and militarily," Mertens said. "So if a limited number of fighters can have a real impact, it is here -- and above the Black Sea that becomes fully accessible once the GBAD on Crimea is dealt with."

Ukraine received F-16s from Denmark in August and from the Netherlands in September.

The arrival of the F-16s, a platform that can use a wide array of weapons and carry out different missions, is causing panic among the Russians, analysts say.

Russians understand "the inevitability of what an F-16 can truly do," said Chalenko. "We received a platform to launch every imaginable weapon from a diverse weapon list. Now it all basically comes down to how Ukraine and its partners will decide to use the F-16s in Ukraine's skies."

The F-16s could help strengthen Ukrainian negotiating positions and liberate Crimea, say analysts.

But for the fighters to eliminate the Crimean Bridge and Russian military facilities in Crimea, Ukraine needs to degrade Russian air defenses as much as possible.

"Will deploying new [Russian] weapons to the peninsula offset losses inflicted on the previous air defense system?" Seleznev asked.

"I think that's unlikely to happen because the Ukrainian army's missile and drone attacks on Russia's air defense system in temporarily occupied Crimea are pretty effective, and the Russians ... don't have time to offset the losses," he said.