By Olha Chepil and AFP | 2024-10-29

KYIV -- The deployment of North Korean troops to support Russian forces amid the war in Ukraine marks a significant escalation in the two countries' political and military alliance -- and shows just how far Moscow has fallen as a strategic power.

At least 3,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to Russia for training, US officials said October 23, after South Korea raised the alarm last week.

The troops traveled by ship from North Korea to Vladivostok, and then went to "multiple Russian military training sites in eastern Russia, where they are currently undergoing training," US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told journalists.

"We do not yet know whether these soldiers will enter into combat alongside the Russian military," but "if these North Korean soldiers decide to join the fight against Ukraine, they will become legitimate military targets," he said.

South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun called the North Koreans "cannon fodder mercenaries" being used by Russia.

"Kim Jong Un simply sold his soldiers" into an illegal war, he added.

'Ask Pyongyang'

Ukrainian media reports suggest some North Korean troops will be dispatched to Kursk province, Russia -- an area hit by a surprise offensive by Kyiv this summer.

Legally, Kursk is Russian territory so North Korean leader "Kim Jong Un can defend his dispatch of troops there by saying that he assisted Russia in repelling Ukrainian 'aggression,'" Vladimir Tikhonov, professor of Korean studies at the University of Oslo, told AFP.

This would follow "the letter of their treaty," signed by Kim and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in June and approved by Moscow's legislature on October 24.

"Russia suffers from acute personnel shortage on the frontlines now," Tikhonov said, and the arrival of North Korean soldiers "solves the issue."

Pyongyang plans to deploy 10,000 soldiers to Russia by December, Seoul says.

Moscow has refused to confirm or deny the reports, telling reporters to "ask Pyongyang" where its troops were.

Kyiv called on any North Korean troops deployed by Russia to lay down their arms and save their lives.

"You must not repeat the fate of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers who will never return home!" said a statement issued October 23 by a group run by Kyiv's military intelligence.

'Buryat battalion'

Russia has trained a "Buryat battalion" made up of North Koreans, several Ukrainian publications citing intelligence sources reported October 15.

"Why a 'Buryat battalion' specifically? It's to hide Asians among Asians," Viktor Yahun, a former deputy director of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), told Kontur.

Soldiers from North Korea have already been spotted near the border with Ukraine.

The independent Russian Telegram channel Astra released clips October 22 purportedly showing Russian and North Korean soldiers, with audio capturing phrases such as "I'm tired" and "we're late" spoken in a North Korean accent.

The Russian military "is actively recruiting a large number of Korean language interpreters," South Korean lawmaker Lee Seong-kweun told reporters.

"Russian instructors participating in military training have assessed that while the North Korean soldiers display excellent physical stamina and morale, they lack sufficient understanding of modern warfare tactics, especially drone-based attacks," Lee said, according to the Moscow Times.

As a result, the Russian instructors expect "there could be a significant number of casualties if North Korean forces are deployed to the frontlines," the lawmaker added.

This gambit shows Moscow's desperation, Yahun said. Russian troops are suffering massive losses, while the Kremlin's covert mobilization, offering citizens large sums of money to sign up, is not working.

'Slap in the face'

Meanwhile, North Korea has its own motives.

In return for supplying troops, North Korea is likely aiming to acquire military technology, ranging from surveillance satellites to submarines, plus possible security guarantees from Moscow, analysts say.

North Korean engineers will help Russian military personnel to operate the weapons that Pyongyang is providing, to identify defects in them and to collect data on their use on the battlefield.

Pyongyang seeks to fight in Ukraine not with individual soldiers but with entire units to give them modern combat experience, Yahun said.

"We're talking about a full-fledged unit with a commander, men who will attack and men who will work with drones," he said. "Then they'll be sure that if a war breaks out at home, they'll have a certain number of men with combat experience."

"If we get bodies that confirm that North Korea entered the war in Ukraine alongside Russia, that will be a big slap in the face to Russia," Yahun said.

"The Kremlin isn't capable of waging the war it started," he added.

Red lines

Nuclear-armed North Korea is already giving Moscow weapons to use against Ukraine, the West says.

"This is now the participation of a second state in the war against Ukraine on Russia's side," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Ukraine's parliament October 16, referring to accusations that Iran is also helping Russia in the war.

North Korea, Russia and Iran are all under United Nations sanctions -- Pyongyang for its nuclear weapon program, Moscow for the Ukraine war and Tehran for its human rights abuses, nuclear proliferation activities and military support for Russia.

"While Iran got involved technologically, North Korea, in addition to handing over ballistic missiles, is helping through human resources," said Yuriy Atanov, a lieutenant in Ukraine's 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade, known as the "Ghosts of Kyiv."

"That's a whole new level of those red lines we often hear about," he told Kontur.

"This isn't just a war for territory and resources. On a broader level this is a war between democracy and authoritarian regimes," Atanov said.

"And on the side of the so-called axis of evil made up of countries with authoritarian regimes, you have countries like North Korea, Iran and Russia."