By Olha Chepil | 2024-11-25

KYIV -- North Koreans fighting in Russia against Ukraine are in for a hard time, knowledgeable watchers say.

They can expect little pay and a potentially rapid death in combat, to judge from their government's practices and the nature of the war into which their dictator sent them.

In addition, combat inexperience makes North Korean soldiers susceptible to feuds with and hazing by Russians.

'100,000 hungry mouths'

Over time, Pyongyang may send up to 100,000 men to Russia to fight against Ukraine, sources familiar with assessments made by some Group of 20 nations told Bloomberg on condition of anonymity.

"They stressed that such a move wasn’t imminent and that military support at that scale -- if it occurred -- would likely happen in batches with troops rotating over time rather than in a single deployment," Bloomberg reported November 17.

Analysts say this figure may be feasible, but no one can confidently say what military training this North Korean contingent might have and how the Kremlin would pay for its assistance.

"[North Korea] has one of the largest land armies in the world," said Ihor Reiterovych, director of political and legal programs at the Ukrainian Center for Social Development.

"These are men who are constantly 'under arms.' So for them [North Korea], 100,000 just means getting rid of 100,000 hungry mouths," he told Kontur.

"But no one knows how competent they are in military affairs," he said.

North Korean troops have not seen battle since 1953, except for limited air force deployments during the Vietnam War.

"It has no experience," Reiterovych said of Pyongyang's present-day army.

'The money goes to Pyongyang'

Involving North Koreans signals the Kremlin's desperation, many analysts say.

The Russian army is in dire need of bodies after accumulating grievous casualties -- up to 1,000 per day according to some estimates.

To replenish its ranks, Moscow promised to pay each North Korean soldier $2,000 per month, The Korea Herald reported November 3, citing South Korean lawmaker Wi Sung-lac, who was briefed by the country's National Intelligence Service (NIS) on the agreement between Russia and North Korea.

In addition, about 4,000 North Korean workers are currently in Russia, and their monthly wages are about $800, according to the NIS.

With at least 10,000 troops fighting on behalf of Russia, Pyongyang is set to receive a yearly revenue of well over $200 million, Wi said.

The Kremlin also promised Pyongyang 600,000 to 700,000 tons of rice and advanced space technologies, the Korea Herald reported.

Russia is helping North Korea with space technology, because Pyongyang is seeking to launch another military spy satellite, analysts say. In addition, North Korea wants access to Russian technologies in missile, nuclear and other military programs.

However, North Korean soldiers should not expect to see much of their lavish promised wages.

"$2,000 a month is a lot of money, but this money won't be put into North Korean soldiers' hands," said Ivan Stupak, a former Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) officer and an analyst with the Ukrainian Institute of the Future.

"Based on the available information, the money goes to Pyongyang, where ... a tax is deducted, and the soldier receives a mere pittance, almost nothing," he told Kontur.

'They are just slaves'

What portion of the pay a combatant will receive is unknown in the West.

"North Korea imposes certain taxes on its people abroad," said Viktor Yahun, former deputy director of the SBU. "These taxes can reach 90% of earnings. So, the North Koreans will probably not see that money. They will be paid some kind of travel allowance."

"They are just slaves who were sold into slavery in Russia," he told Kontur.

The South Korea, Japan and the United States have strongly condemned North Korea for sending its army to fight against Ukraine.

"It's one thing if it's some kind of alliance, as in World War I or II. Here it turns out that an outsider country that has absolutely nothing to do with Ukraine is renting out its army," said Reiterovych. "There has never been anything like this in the history of the world."

"In the long run, North Korea stands to lose more than it gains by joining Russia's war," the Institute for National Security Strategy, a think tank affiliated with the South Korean NIS, said in an October 22 report.

Potential infighting

Neither Moscow or Pyongyang has confirmed the deployment of North Korean troops to fight in Ukraine, their potential salaries or other concessions regarding their military agreement.

After all, this information could provoke discontent among Russian forces, who might gain the impression that North Koreans are out-earning them, and among the Russian civilian population, many of whom are living in dire economic conditions themselves.

It would also lay bare Russia's losses and Moscow's need for manpower.

"In general, everything concerning North Korean troops in Russia is currently highly classified and information is limited," said Serhiy Kuzan, a military analyst and director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation. "This is being closely monitored by assigned Federal Security Service [FSB] officers."

Another concern is that Russian and North Korean troops might clash over wages and military experience, analysts say.

The North Koreans could face abusive hazing -- include confining them to an open-air pit or throwing them into a basement -- a common occurrence in the Russian army since the days of the Soviet Union.

"[The North Koreans] will most likely experience with Russian service members the standard conflicts that exist in the Russian army," said Reiterovych. "At first, the North Koreans will simply be used as 'fresh meat.' Or they will be given some orders that are impossible to carry out."

"And if the [Russians] don't do this ... they might resort to their standard methods, like putting them in a pit, beating them up or something else."

Desertion among North Korean ranks is also a concern.

Russia has armed the North Koreans "like infantry" -- with mortars, machine guns, assault rifles and the like, Ukrainian intelligence reports.

They may be used in first-wave assaults, which have a high mortality rate, said Reiterovych.

"When they see with their own eyes the bombed-out Ukrainian houses, which even in such a terrible state will amaze them with their size, quality and wealth, when they see the stores with food -- many of them might wonder whether the way they are living in North Korea is right," said Reiterovych.